Chapter 688: The Root
For now, the United States is a prime example of a national strategy that far exceeds national strength.
The strength and decline of the industrial society come from the inflow and loss of wealth, and the flow of world wealth determines whether the national strength of the country rises or falls.
After World War II, the United States stood out as the world's largest power and the world's largest creditor.
Then, the United States also led the Bretton Woods system to establish a dollar standard with the dollar as the base currency, that is, the dollar is linked to gold and the currencies of various countries are linked to the dollar.
This is equivalent to the value of the US dollar in the world equivalent to gold, hence the beautiful name: US dollars. On the surface, this system is not a big problem, but there is a fatal flaw in it, which is that gold production is far from keeping up with the increase in trade.
When this system was established, the world was in ruins after World War II, the world trade volume was not high, and the United States was still the world's main supplier of industrial products. But the world cannot be in an era of war forever.
When World War II ended and the world economy entered a boom, the gold-to-dollar system ran into trouble. The basic feature of the functioning of the Bretton Woods system is that world trade is settled in US dollars. You dare not settle in dollars, the United States has nuclear weapons, who dares not to use it?
However, nuclear weapons cannot control the increase in world trade. After the end of World War II, most of the Eurasian continent and other regions entered a period of stability and stability, the productive forces began to develop, trade began to flourish, and the prosperity of trade led to an increase in trade volume. The U.S. dollar is the world's currency in circulation. Then the dollar will have to meet the increase in world trade. That is, the dollar will increase.
However, because the dollar is tied to gold, the increase in gold is limited, and the increase in production cannot keep up with the increase in trade volume, if the United States cannot provide enough dollars for the world to trade, it will either agree to settle the trade in other currencies, or the United States will print more dollars for the world to trade.
There are two ways for the United States to resolve this contradiction, one is to divide the world into two halves, one is the Warsaw Pact (the former Soviet Union Alliance) and the other is NATO. The Warsaw Pact does not use US dollars, so the US provides much less US dollars, especially for China, which has a large population and unlimited production potential, and imposes trade sanctions, effectively controlling the volume of trade. Therefore, although the Cold War was a small calculation of Britain, the United States was also happy to see it come to fruition.
Another way is that the United States desperately produces industrial goods, then sells them to the world to recycle the dollars that flow out, and then uses the recovered dollars to flow back to the world for recycling. Essentially, the second option is the better way, as long as the U.S. exports enough. Collect enough dollars and world trade can run smoothly.
The United States was quite successful in using the first method. However, because the Soviet Union did not have a complete range of industries, in fact, the Soviet Union also had to use dollars from time to time. But the second method is not used well by the United States. Although the United States is a big country, its productive forces are limited after all. Moreover, after World War II, the United States used the Marshall Plan to prop up Europe and help Japan rebuild its economy, and these countries began to export to the United States after they recovered, but the demand for American industrial products was not urgent. Essentially, the contradiction between the dollar's limited supply and the unlimited demand for world trade was irreconcilable from the outset. Despite the crisis, the dollar was able to barely survive until the Vietnam War.
The Vietnam War was a terrible idea, but it had to be fought because it provoked ideological confrontation, and the liberal Western world needed the United States to go to Vietnam to show the prestige of the boss, how could the free South Vietnam lose to the communist North Vietnam? A steady stream of young Americans went to Vietnam to fight the war, and these people were precisely the main force in the production of industrial goods, and the production of industrial goods in the United States naturally decreased, and Europe and Japan began to supply the world with the demand for industrial goods.
The Vietnam War required the United States to print money to support the cost of the war, but because of the reduction in the supply of industrial products by the United States, the return of dollars has decreased, and even the deficit.
At that time, China and France hit it off, because China provided the United States with some snake medicine and other military supplies when the United States launched the Vietnam War, and also had some dollars in hand. If you have dollars, you want to make a big pen.
France has taken the lead in establishing diplomatic relations with China despite the opposition of the Western world, and also feels that this time there is a profit, so a vigorous financial war occurred at an inadvertent moment, the inherent defects of the dollar in this financial war are undoubtedly exposed, France drove a submarine from the United States to transport a large amount of gold, and the reduction of gold reserves instantly, the Bretton Woods system will naturally collapse.
There is no way, the United States is forced to decouple the dollar from gold, and the multi-printed dollar temporarily stabilizes the trade settlement system, but it also determines that the dollar is no longer the "dollar", what reason do you have to save dollars?
In order to strengthen the credibility of the U.S. dollar, the U.S. forced OPEC member Saudi Arabia and other countries to use force and other means to strengthen the credibility of the U.S. dollar, and began the petrodollar era in which oil transactions were settled in U.S. dollars.
Oil is the basic raw material for various industrial products, and the trade volume is very large, as long as the oil is used as the anchor for dollar settlement, the world must deposit dollars in order to buy and sell oil, and the dollar will continue to be credible. If any Arab country in the Middle East does not settle oil in dollars, the United States will get him.
From the end of the Vietnam War in the 70s to the establishment of petrodollars, the United States used US debt to absorb the excess stock of world dollars, and then to see which country had too much US debt, it used big scissors to shear it fiercely to reduce the scale of US debt. But this is based on the fact that the dollar is marketed half the world.
In 1991, there was a major event that subverted the existing world pattern -- the collapse of the Soviet bloc and the transformation of the whole world into a common market, the situation in which the world was divided into two halves during the Cold War came to an end, and China was also lifted from trade sanctions and began to integrate into the world trading system. At this time, the U.S. dollar became the currency used for trade settlement all over the world.
In particular, when China entered the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, the global trade volume was carried out at a rate far exceeding the growth rate of the US currency. In order to provide the dollars needed for world trade, the United States can no longer recycle dollars by providing the world's industrial goods.
The United States began to produce high-tech products with high prices and small quantities, but there was no way, and the United States could only use this method to enlarge the multiplier of dollar circulation, although through the Guangchang agreement and the Southeast Asian financial crisis, many countries: Japan, the Soviet Union, Southeast Asia, and South America, cut a certain amount of US debt.
However, in the face of China's unexpected import and export capacity as the world's factory, the world's dollar demand is still growing.
China's trade volume is increasing at an annual rate of four to five trillion dollars, but the United States can only provide an incremental supply of $1 trillion a year under normal circumstances.
Therefore, in order to ensure the supply of dollars, in order to ensure that the trade settlement currency is not replaced by other currencies, only 300 million Americans fight. In order to provide enough dollars, 300 million Americans spent desperately, buying houses, cars, and qiē, from sunrise to sunset.
But despite all the efforts to consume milk, the United States is still unable to provide such a huge demand for dollars. There is no way, only the only way left to blow the capital market bubble, so all the world's financial commodities are rising, the higher the price of commodities, the more dollars are needed for trading, when commodities can not rise, world trade has not decreased at all, and the euro and RMB hope to settle trade with their own currency, because the supply of dollars is insufficient, the United States only has to sacrifice the last resort, financial derivatives appeared!
This kind of financial derivatives is the biggest reason for the outbreak of subprime mortgage crises such as Lehman Brothers, Freddie Mac, and Fannie Mae in the future.
What should I do if the crisis happens, according to what Lee Chung-hee, a Ph.D. in economics, saw when he was bored before his rebirth, the United States still thought of many ways to simply quantify in order to continue to maintain the dollar for world trade.
What is quantitative easing? That is, the Treasury does not need to take out US bonds to mortgage the Federal Reserve, and the Fed prints dollars for the Treasury to buy the pile of junk bonds for circulation, which is to print money directly.
As a result, the U.S. debt has been diluted, and the countries that hold the U.S. debt are naturally very dissatisfied, but the United States can no longer care about these things, as long as the world is still willing to use the dollar, it can continue quantitative easing until the world can no longer afford this kind of money printing.
unbearable, that is, the day when the dollar standard ends.
However, before the end of the day, the countries of the world will pay the United States for this, unless a quick decision is made to no longer settle in dollars.
Of course, that is the matter of the euro and the Chinese people's currency, and South Korea, a country that cannot even be independent in defense and politics, does not need to think about it for the time being, so it will naturally be greatly affected.
Lee Chung-hee knows this very well, but he said to Kim Jin-jung: "No matter how it is affected, the real estate industry, as long as it is a little restrained today, there is no need to compete with others at ultra-high prices, then, after this year or two, the future development space is still very ......!" ”
This is the most basic fact, it is very simple, Seoul is so big, and the people of the whole South Korea are extremely yearning for this place, even if it is a small house of a few square meters, they are willing to stay here, looking forward to a miracle.
This undoubtedly also reassured Kim Jin-jung, Lee Chung-hee told him before that the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States will come soon, and he is still quite worried about whether his company, which is developing well, will be tossed to death like the Southeast Asian financial crisis in 97.
Bankruptcy is unlikely, because there is the support of the imperial Li family behind it. (To be continued......)