It is not easy to analyze a country thoroughly, and it is quite laborious to gather detailed information about the various classes in the country, the ruling class, and the rulers.

As soon as Li Yuchang entered the conference room of the intelligence analysis group, he was taken aback. In the center of the interior wall of the large conference room, which is more than 200 square meters, three whiteboards are hung only against each other. On the whiteboard is a huge map of Japan, with a large amount of sticky notes fastened with magnets of various colors. Each sticky note is filled with text. On the whiteboards on the other walls are maps of the four islands of Japan, which also contain various materials.

The office connected to the large conference room and the conference room across the conference room corridor are also the analysis rooms. What impressed Li Yuchang was that two of the offices had shelves on both sides of the walls, and cotton threads were pulled back and forth on the shelves, and the intertwined cotton threads reminded Li Yuchang of spider webs. A lot of information was added with clips on the cotton thread. The information is labeled, has a simple description, or is an abbreviation of an incomprehensible event. The intersections of the different cotton threads are held in place with clips, under which are labels with explanations of important events.

Li Xin, the current minister of foreign affairs, was once a subordinate of Li Yuchang's nephew, Li Weisi, and also a subordinate of Li Yuchang. Li Yuchang can still remember how Li Xin acted with a nervous and curious expression when he was still childish. But when he saw Li Xin again in a small conference room, he found that Li Xin had changed. The young man had become a middle-aged man with a sense of exhaustion, and it seemed that he had been busy for a long time, Li Xin had a scruffy beard, and the people attending the meeting were all young adults with expressions similar to Li Xin's, they were either holding cigarettes, or simply closing their eyes, and sitting on the chairs with serious or casual expressions.

Li Xin said loudly: "The reason for the failure of the first few deductions is probably determined that everyone thinks that some people are destined not to die during the deduction. This is not true. The situation in Japan is that no one will not die, and no one is destined not to die. Just like using dice to add uncertainty in military chess deduction, there are too many absolutes and inevitabilities in our deduction. This is clearly not in line with objective laws. ”

Hearing this, Li Yuchang felt unhappy for a while. It's not that there is anything wrong with this, but Li Yuchang's sentence "No one will not die, and no one is destined not to die", which made the 63-year-old Li Yuchang very unhappy. In terms of his current physical condition, Li Yuchang feels that he has no problem living to an ancient age, and his clear understanding of his old age makes Li Yuchang very sensitive to the fact that "no one dies".

After the meeting, Li Xincai invited Li Yuchang to his office to talk. Li Yuchang smiled: "Minister Li, I think you are going to be a fortune teller now." ”

Li Xin shook his head tiredly, "Prime Minister, you're laughing at us." We are not fortune tellers, we think that some people are constants, but in fact, everyone is a variable. It's not easy to figure out the meaning of variables. ”

After hearing these words that he had heard but had never considered so much, Li Yuchang had to admit in his heart that he was really old. Having experienced and witnessed the two eras of the Manchu Qing Dynasty and the Republic of China, Li Yuchang fully admitted that the Manchu era was nothing more than a pool of stagnant water, and no matter how the officials above changed, they could only jump in the small cages that had long been prescribed, and those cages were firmly fixed in the iron-like social structure and could not move. Carving a boat to seek a sword was not only feasible in the Manchu Qing Dynasty, but even the only feasible way. And the Min Dynasty is like the great river that Confucius saw, "the deceased is like a husband, reluctant to give up day and night". Even the largest ship will not be long before it will go down the river and change its position. Not to mention that the ships of the Min Dynasty still had their own power and drove forward desperately.

"The Governor has asked me to assess the situation in Japan with you, but I don't understand what you're doing. I have to be taught more by Minister Li. Li Yuchang said very seriously.

Li Xin hurriedly said: "Prime Minister, you are joking. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs doesn't have much to do right now, and we're doing all sorts of experimental models here. So it's messy. In fact, according to the conventional assessment, everyone sits there and chats. It's just a matter of whether Japan will start fighting, who will stand on which side, and what conditions they will be able to take advantage of. What role can we play in this? ”

Seeing that Li Xin was about to talk at length about the trivial content that Li Yuchang didn't understand at all and didn't want to listen to carefully, Li Yuchang said calmly: "Look at everyone's appearance, let me also listen to the summary of the comrades." ”

Soon, the responsible people gathered together and gave Li Yuchang a summary meeting.

"In the more extreme case, the three cores of the Meiji government, Okubo Ritsu, Kido Takayoshi, and Saigo Takamori, are finished together......"

"One of the unlikely scenarios where the Meiji army was defeated and the government collapsed, and the emperor personally commanded the conquest of Kyushu......"

"In the more likely scenario, the Meiji army is victorious, and the local gentry clan in Kyushu is completely suppressed......"

"In the unlikely second case, Saigo Takamori succeeded in giving Kyushu the same autonomy as Hokkaido, and Shikoku followed suit......"

The direction of Japan's development in the assessment was listed one by one, and Li Yuchang originally thought that he would be faced with the results of the assessment as chaotic as the place where the data was processed, but he did not expect that the assessment was well organized and the direction was very clear.

Whether it is war or peace, various feasible plans have been proposed, including the possibilities therein. Li Yuchang originally had his own views on the evaluation meetings for which professionals were responsible, but he did not like such professional meetings at all, and he did not want them to be above officials. Even if this thinking has not changed, there is a great sense of impatience with the professionalism of professionals.

Watching these young people analyze Japan's future, Li Yuchang suddenly wondered if Japan, as the real party concerned, could have such a clear analysis and judgment of itself.

The parties in Japan did not do these things, and for this country of samurai, it was far more popular to solve problems directly with a knife than meticulous analysis and prediction. This was the case with Okubo Ritsu, who once sent the Shizu to Hokkaido, and at that time it was considered that the Ezo Republic in Hokkaido would always be destroyed between the Shizu. The end result was the destruction of the Shi army, at least the Shi army on the island of Honshu. This can be regarded as the fulfillment of one of Okubo Ritsu's goals.

Even after suffering such losses, the Japanese gentry are not really finished. In 1876, the Meiji government promulgated the policy of "Abolition of the Sword Order" and "Suspension of Ieroku", and the local gentry became agitated, and a large-scale gentry rebellion arose in Mishima, Japan. Under the iron fist of Okubo Ritsu, these warrior rebellions swirled and perished.

At a government meeting on July 22, when Kido Takayoshi was worried that the Shizu rebellion would collude with a rebellion among the people, Okubo Toshitsu smiled: "Hokkaido is always useful, and now those farmers who might join the group have gone to Hokkaido, and Toshizo Hijikata, who was recently elected as the governor of Hokkaido, has sent someone to contact the government, and they will not intervene in this matter." According to our spies' intelligence, the Turkish side told the Hokkaido Diet about the impending war, and all the members of the Hokkaido Diet were opposed to giving any support to the Shiko. ”

The original leaders of Hokkaido were the shogunes who had fled to Hokkaido before, and they gritted their teeth and insisted on opposing the Meiji government. The majority of Hokkaido is now occupied by ordinary people who could not bear the extortion of the Meiji government and had to flee to the Ezo Republic to survive. Even if it hadn't been for the months of fierce fighting with the Shi army, it would have been impossible for these people to support the Shi people. A considerable part of the land rent levied by the Meiji government was used as an annual salary for the nobles.

At the mention of Hokkaido's parliament, Kido Takayoshi's emotions became a little excited. He had been pushing for the establishment of a constitutional form of government, the separation of powers, and a bicameral parliament, and after agreeing to the reversion, the edict of the constitutional form of government was quickly issued. With regard to the parliament (legislation), the Senate and the Council of Magistrates were established as the upper and lower chambers. With regard to the judiciary, there is a large court equivalent to the current Supreme Court of Justice in Japan.

Although the cold reality of Okubo Ritsu does not oppose this ideal, he believes that the period is premature, unrealistic and meaningless. Until the power of the nobles is completely wiped out, the council can only become a vent for the dissatisfaction of the samurai who have been deprived of their privileges outside the Sacho and Tohi domains. After Hokkaido took the lead in establishing a parliamentary system, Okubo Ritsu commented that once the Shi clan was defeated, Hokkaido's system could serve as a mentor for the Meiji government.

"Now I have sent troops to Kyushu to transport the ammunition from the Kyushu ammunition depot back to Honshu. As long as Saigo doesn't come out to make trouble at this time, it will take two years at most to solve the problem. Okubo said to Kido Takayo.

Seeing that his ideals could be realized, Kido Takayoshi's cheeks turned red, and compared to his pale face, the red cheeks looked quite sickly. Seeing this, Okubo Ritsu couldn't help but sigh: "Kido, you have to pay attention to your body, if you can't wait for the constitution, it will be a pity to see the day when the parliament is established!" ”

Of course, Kido Takayo knew the condition of his body, and he laughed self-deprecatingly: "Don't worry, I won't let myself down." ”

A month later, on August 22, Kido Takayoshi fell ill. So he didn't know that Okubo Toshitsu and others had made a decision after discussion, and if Saigo Takamori continued to stay in Kagoshima Castle, which was hostile to the Meiji government, he would find a way to assassinate Saigo Takamori.

This plan was just a record, and at this time, Saigo Takamori did not stay in Kagoshima Castle, but went to the Okuma Peninsula to hunt in the autumn of Kone. With Okubo Ritsu's cold reality, he certainly wouldn't think that his old comrades-in-arms were really so cooperative with the government's actions, and Saigo Takamori's actions were just preparing for the future. As long as the Meiji government encountered an insurmountable hurdle and was opposed nationwide, Okubo Ritsu believed that his old comrade-in-arms, Saigo Takamori, would immediately jump out. But that was for later, and at this time, Okubo Ritsu only hoped that Saigo Takamori could continue to settle down.

Saigo Takamori, who is quite deep in the city, can settle down, but the scholars of Kyushu refuse to settle down. When news leaked that government forces were planning to move all the ammunition from the Satsuma Domain to Honshu Island, the young cadets of the Kagoshima Military Academy were furious.

The government army believed that this was a means to avoid a military conflict, and without ammunition, Kyushu naturally did not have the strength to fight against the government army, and the battle could not be fought at all. But in the eyes of the young students of the military academies in Kyushu, once there is no force to resist the government army, they will be wantonly killed by the government army. The government army will never let go of the Kyushu scholars.

On September 3, cadets from the Kagoshima Military Academy attacked the Kagoshima Kusmuta Army powder magazine, and soon after, the powder magazines of Isodokan and Kaminohara, and many places in Kagoshima City were set on fire, and the riots were out of control.

On 5 September, government troops and police began to arrest the students who had caused the riots.

On 7 September, some Japanese businessmen began to operate in China, hoping to buy arms.

On 8 September, Weser received a report asking if it was possible to sell arms to the Satsuma Domain. In the current situation, Japan is no longer China's opponent, and Wei Ze has already put Japan down. He handed over all the problems to the department in charge of dealing with Japan. It's just about selling arms, but it's not just about the people below. It is too late to keep the new arms secret, and it is impossible to export them at all. Even if it is an old-style munitions, any sale without the approval of the Central Military Commission is a major violation of the law. No one wants to risk their position.

Weeser referred the matter to the Foreign Ministry's assessment team. Since Japan had no chance of shaking China's national foundation, Weser put the matter aside. He made a request in the Military Commission to make a plan for the cavalry corps to go out and seize Central Asia.

"The Russians have already had a hard time riding tigers. If Pleven City holds out until next year, Russia will have to make a major adjustment. Or mobilize forces to capture Pleven at any cost, or change the direction of the main attack and attack the Caucasian front on the eastern side of the Black Sea. Once the Russian army and the Ottoman army are in a stalemate, we will send troops to liberate Central Asia at the request of the masses of the people of several khanates in Central Asia. Wei Ze calmly said righteous and stern words.

"Are we going to attack Russia on a large scale?" Lei Hu was a little excited, he proposed this plan more than half a year ago, and Wei Ze asked Lei Hu to be patient. Lei Hu is even ready to wait for two or three years. Unexpectedly, in less than a year, the opportunity appeared.

Wei Ze shook his head helplessly, "Lei Laohu, you comrade." The liberation of the peoples of Central Asia is our aim, and perhaps war with Russia is an action that must be taken to accomplish this aim. You can't put the cart before the horse. And everyone has always heard of the great Chinese poet Li Bai. ”

Li Bai: Everyone has really heard of it, and the comrades of the Military Commission all nodded to indicate that they knew.

Seeing that everyone nodded, Wei Ze said: "Li Bai was born in Broken Leaf City back then, and Broken Leaf City is in Central Asia. This shows that it has been China's territory since ancient times. Recovering the territory and liberating the people of Central Asia is a glorious task that our generation should bravely undertake. Even if Russia takes a different position from us, I am sure they will understand our demands. ”