"You have a reason for everything, right?" Xiao Yan glared at Lin Zheng angrily, but the next second, she smiled, "But I think that real estate can really be done, now the average price of new real estate in the East Third Ring Road has reached 45oo, yesterday when I walked from, I saw an advertisement for a community called Nanxinyuan, the average price is 48oo yuan / square, and the price of second-hand houses is about 38oo to 42oo, according to this trend, it can rise to 10,000 yuan in 2ooo at most." ”

"1oooo in 2ooo?" Lin Zheng thought for a while, shook his head and said, "Don't think about residential buildings, they can't rise so fast, I estimate that by 2ooo years, they will rise by 5o percent on the existing basis." ”

"That's it?" Xiao Yan frowned, "Housing prices are rising very quickly now." ”

Lin Zheng cried and laughed, "Commercial real estate such as office buildings and shops and commercial housing such as residential buildings are not the same thing, they are all political and cultural centers of our country, which must be accompanied by a high degree of commodity economy, and the prosperity of commerce will inevitably lead to the prosperity of commercial real estate, but commercial housing is another matter." ”

Can he say that only after the iron-blooded prime minister came to power, the real estate industrialization and education industrialization, at that time ushered in the crazy rise in housing prices? If I remember correctly, it seems that the housing prices between the East Third and Fourth Ring Roads will only be between 55oo and 65oo in 2ooo years, and the housing prices in individual communities can rise to about 75oo, and compared with the current housing prices, they have only increased by 8o% in 5 years. This is not a large amount, but compared with residential buildings, the price of commercial office buildings and shops has risen not outrageously. In 5 years, it has nearly doubled.

In 1o years, a partner of the capital came to Huaqiangbei to find Lin Zheng and Lin Zheng talked about the housing prices of the capital, as soon as he talked about this problem, the buddy regretted it, the brother grew up in the capital, according to him, in 2ooo he bought a 115 square house between the third and fourth ring roads in the northeast. One square 56oo, the location is okay, there are seven or eight universities within a range of 3 kilometers. Next to his door is a 211 university, where you can go for a walk on campus every morning and evening, which is quiet and green. Until the beginning of the O6 year. The house in their community is only about 7ooo per square meter, which is certainly not cheap, but it is not too much.

But at the end of O6 and the beginning of O7, the price of housing is not outrageous, and by June of O7, the house price has soared to 15ooo per square meter, and the price of shops and office buildings is naturally even more outrageous.

Why did Lin Zheng remember it so clearly? Because the partner of the capital once regretted beating his chest and told Lin Zheng that he was the second year after he bought the house. There are still some houses in the community that have not been sold, and this guy wants to exchange their 115-square-meter house for a 2oo-square-meter house in the community that has not been sold on the 24th floor.

At that time, the situation in that community was that the market price of the 15-story house where he was located was 72oo yuan per square meter, and the market price of the 24-story house was 78oo yuan per square meter. I knew that this was the case, and I bought it when I smashed the pot and sold iron. ”

Everyone knows what the housing price of the imperial capital is, Lin Zheng thinks that he has no ability to buy a house near the third ring of the imperial capital in his life, so naturally he has no idea, just laughing at this buddy: "You are a full man who doesn't know that a hungry man is hungry, do you know how many people are still desperately saving for a small house of 5o square meters in the imperial capital?" ”

Xiao Yan naturally doesn't know this, but she also has her own reasoning, "You are right, this government's mind is all about how to make the economy soft6...... Those countries in Southeast Asia are now coming to an end. ”

"Huh? How do you say that? Lin Zheng's heart moved slightly, and he asked quietly, "I think the economic exhibition of those countries in Southeast Asia is very good." ”

"Still don't understand?" Xiao Yan glanced at Lin Zheng, "It's because the economies of those countries in Southeast Asia are developing too fast, so they have to be unlucky." ”

Could it be that the upper echelons of the country have realized that the financial crisis in Southeast Asia is looming? However, it is also true that the government of a big country must have a long-term vision, and although the current economic situation of those countries in Southeast Asia is prosperous, the inherent defects in their financial and economic structures may have long been thoroughly analyzed by the various think tanks above.

Holding back the shock in his heart, Lin Zheng tentatively asked Xiao Yan, "What do you mean...... The pigs are fattened and almost should be killed? ”

"That's basically what it means," Xiao Yan said casually, "But that's all I can know, and when it will come out, it's not for me to know." ”

"If that's the case...... Lin Zheng was silent for a moment, and finally said slowly, "It should be the period from the second half of '97 to April '98." ”

"Huh? Why? Xiao Yan looked at Lin Zheng with some surprise, she only knew that about three to five years later, there would be a severe and wide-ranging economic crisis in Southeast Asia, but all she knew was that Lin Zheng could guess the exact time of the explosion?

But if this kid's analysis is well-founded, Xiao Yan's whole person is excited: there are too many articles that can be done in this.

"Do you remember last year, when the Asian economy was widely optimistic, the famous American economist Paul . Robin. Krugman wrote an article in Foreign Affairs criticizing the Asian economic development model, saying that the practice of relying only on large investment without technological innovation and efficiency improvement can easily form a bubble economy, and that in the boom period, there is already a deep crisis lurking, and sooner or later it will enter into a large-scale adjustment, and he believes that the time for this adjustment to be carried out by the market itself will not be far away. ”

"Have you read Krugman's article?" Xiao Yan was really as shocked as he was: as a young economist in his early forties, Krugman's reputation in China was not obvious, and there were not many Chinese who knew this person.

"Yes." Lin Zheng nodded.

"Can you tell me about it? I'm curious. ”

"No problem, mainly to comment on the current economic exhibition of Asian countries, that the current Asian economic development relies on a large amount of investment, many enterprises are operating in debt, and the industrial structure is not reasonable enough, which has caused the inflow of foreign capital, which will bring a very strict problem: a large part of corporate debt is denominated in foreign currency."

"The debt of the enterprise is denominated in a foreign currency?" Xiao Yan thought for a moment, and finally nodded, "You continue." ”

"When corporate debt is denominated in foreign currency, it creates a new problem, or a problem that is not a problem: when foreign capital flows into these countries, it is exchanged for the currency of that country, and when the country's economy is not large enough to absorb and dilute these foreign capital, it will cause the exchange rate of the country's currency to rise."

"And because Asian countries have close ties with the U.S. government in the process of their development, the government needs to maintain the stability of the exchange rate between the local currency and the dollar, which requires an increase in the supply of the local currency, but it has caused credit expansion."

"Of course, this situation is not what the government wants to see, and the only means that the government can take is to withdraw the local currency, but the fiscal situation of these countries is not good, and the only way for the government to withdraw the local currency is to sell bonds and other ways, and a new problem has arisen: the interest rate of the local currency will be raised. At this time, the widening of domestic and foreign interest rate differentials led to a larger inflow of foreign capital, so credit continued to expand. ”

"At this time, if the fixed exchange rate between the local currency and the US dollar is interrupted, this credit expansion can actually be curbed, but the appreciation of the local currency will undoubtedly reduce the country's exports, and further affect business confidence, for these governments, this situation is definitely not what they want to see, so they can only let this credit continue to expand, to put it simply, now they can be considered drinking to quench their thirst, because the crisis is very close at this time...... Paul. Robin. Krugman predicted that this would happen around '95-'96, but some signs of it were already visible. ”

"Makes perfect sense." Xiao Yan lowered her head and pondered for a long time, finally nodded and motioned for Lin Zheng to continue.

"The continuous expansion of credit has led to a further increase in investment and imports and an increase in the level of wages, which in turn has led to a decline in the growth of exports, resulting in a large trade deficit.

"The widening of the trade deficit and the instability of the market will only create a problem for these export-oriented countries, and the problem is also fatal: it will make investors lose confidence in the country's currency, and at this time, foreign capital will no longer flow in large quantities, and the local currency will begin to depreciate...... This is already the eve of the economic crisis. ”

"For the government, there are not many options at this time, either sell the dollar, or raise the interest rate sharply to maintain the exchange rate between the local currency and the dollar, but the next moment the problem comes, the foreign exchange reserves of these countries are not enough to support the sale of the dollar to maintain the exchange rate of the local currency, and raising the interest rate may cause the bursting of the investment bubble, at this time, the local currency can not maintain a fixed exchange rate with the dollar, and there is a depreciation: the high equilibrium has turned to the low equilibrium, in fact, it is an economic crisis, The market begins to equilibrium automatically. (To be continued......)

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