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The bet contract between Wang Qinian and Lang Dessert was soon signed in black and white. Pen, fun, and www.biquge.info

Lang Dessert registers an account, and after the stock of the small partner cinema is listed, he can choose the time to carry out securities lending and short-selling operations.

After Lang Dessert's account was shorted by securities lending, he began to compare his earnings with the shares of his partner cinema company.

Within a month after the short selling, compare the investment returns of both parties to determine the winner or loser.

The institution that provides the account for Lang Dessert is Huatai Securities, a mainstream large brokerage company in China, and at the same time, the net value of the account will also be announced to the public.

After signing this contract, both parties felt very sure.

Wang Qinian knows that Lang Dessert is a big ****, his words and deeds are inconsistent, and he often slaps himself in the face, this kind of person, in addition to publishing books and earning speech appearance fees, it is impossible to rely on his theory to direct realistic business and investment.

And Lang Dessert said in his heart, he chose the time to go short. waited until the small partner theater formed a super bubble Cai shorted, in addition, with his influence, once shorted, there must be many fans in reality, and he will also sell the shares of the small partner theater, which increases his certainty of winning.

Soon after the news broke, the media reported on the pinnacle bet.

A battle between economists and entrepreneurs!

Both of them are very famous!

Of course, Wang Qinian is not only famous, but also super rich. If you compare the past remarks and practices of economists such as Wang Qinian and Lang Dessert, people who are a little more rational should realize that Wang Qinian is more reliable.

However, there are also some people who are superstitious about economic experts, thinking that the level of economists can surpass that of pragmatic entrepreneurs!

In fact, many economists do not study the real economy at all, but they make a series of assumptions, make some models, and then deduce theories. If the real-world variables are as simple as they assume. Economists are naturally invincible.

Pity!

Many of the theories that most economists come up with exist only in their assumptions. If it is only a theory, without guiding and predicting reality, it may still give them a little face. Once economists tried to predict. Most of the time, they are all wrong, and reality will slap you in the face!

Truly reliable economists don't make predictions. Rather, put forward some economic phenomena after they occur. How to fix it. These economists do not predict that they are the last to strike, and they will never do something until something happens, and after it happens, they will use the methods they propose to have some effect. That's what a real economist should do.

And economists who try to predict the economy are pure fools. This kind of person is still in the era of magic sticks and witchcraft. It is a pity that there are the most gods and wizards in the field of economics, even in the 21st century. Computers are super awesome, statistically speaking, it is possible to backtest theories, summarize the probability and number of successes of these theories in the past history, and compare and analyze the long-term performance of various theories.

It can be quantitatively analyzed, and there can be an era of data backtesting. The economists who dance the gods are still up and down.

Because, if you want to be famous, you need to constantly predict. If you are right once or twice, you will become famous, and in the future, you will have to be cheeky if you guess wrong countless times. Selective ignorance. Always only mention what you predicted correctly, and repeatedly emphasize how many times you have predicted correctly, and then you can pretend to be superior.

As for taking all the past results, doing quantitative analysis and backtesting, I'm sorry. There are too many novices in reality, and if you have quantitatively analyzed them, you will naturally think that most of the authorities are stupid, and most economic theories and strategies are stupid, so you will not believe them.

Even if it is a quantitative analysis, the big data analysis of various strategies is summarized in history, and the success rate and return of these strategies are summarized. However, there is no guarantee that it will be effective in the future.

What's more, those economists who are several levels worse than digitization and quantification.

Good economists generally don't make predictions, and once they start trying to predict, then they are not much different from the dancing gods.

"Mr. Wang, why do you bother with a mouthpiece economist, it doesn't do you much good if you win, but it will increase his arrogance if you lose." As the lead underwriter of the new shares, the representative of Huatai Securities has some opinions.

"Nothing, just a thought. Besides, losing is just a drop in the bucket for me personally! Wang Qinian smiled.

"Yes, if you're happy!" The staff of the brokerage couldn't help but laugh and cry.

In fact, brokerages attach great importance to small partners and enterprises with a large number of high-quality assets. You know, the underwriting fee is also a windfall for brokers.

In terms of the underwriting fee of 4% of the raised fund, the small partner theater was listed online and raised nearly 3 billion yuan. The listing of this company alone is enough to bring about 120 million yuan of underwriting income to the underwriting agency.

The cost paid by the brokerage is negligible, and it is almost impossible for the new shares to rot in the hands and not be issued. Brokers have little to no risk.

Basically, it's a windfall!

If a bunch of subsidiaries of the small partner are listed, there can be more than a dozen IPOs with a scale no less than that of the subsidiaries of the small partner cinema can be listed.

It is precisely because of this that the small partner department has also become a cash cow for many brokerages to compete for!

……

On May 6, 2013, the IPO of the new shares of the small partner cinema line was opened. The company's total share capital is 250 million shares, of which 50 million are new shares.

The issue price of the new shares is 58.8 yuan per share, the IPO raised funds of 2.94 billion yuan, and the IPO market value is 14.7 billion yuan. Last year, the profit of the small partner cinema was 1.1 billion yuan, and the issue price-earnings ratio was 13.3 times.

This P/E ratio is obviously very low, not like a new stock, but like some large blue chips that have lost their growth.

Of course, in addition to the fact that the scale of the small partner cinema chain was already large at the time of its first IPO, it was indeed a second-tier blue-chip stock. It can't be compared with the scale of companies such as banks, insurance companies, and brokerages. However, at the beginning of the listing, it was a market value of 14.7 billion, which is obviously very large-scale.

In other words, some overseas markets may not be able to guarantee the success of the issuance, so some investment banks that issue and underwrite need to cover the stocks, and if the subscription amount is not enough, the investment banks need to buy these stocks themselves.

However, in the A-share market, this has never been the case, and under normal circumstances, the A-share market is full of hundreds of billions of funds queuing up to grab new shares. The high winning rate is often a few percent, and some of the lower winning rates are a few per 1,000.

Dozens to hundreds of times the funds to grab new shares, and the issuance of new shares is definitely a hot commodity.

The small partner cinema issued new shares to raise 2.94 billion yuan, but in fact, there were more than 600 billion yuan of capital subscription!

The winning rate is 2%!

Even in the current bear market, there is no shortage of funds to subscribe for new shares. Anyway, this fund is generally idle and eats interest, until the new shares are restarted, and the sleeping trillions of capital will rush up to hit the new one.

The yield of new shares is relatively high in the early years, and the annualized rate of return can even reach 40% or 50%. After that, it was used to roll new funds, and the snowballing growth, the winning rate decreased, and the rate of return gradually dropped to about 10% per annum. Even so, for many funds that pursue stable profits, they will only hit new ones, and will not touch the higher risk secondary market. (To be continued.) )