The 97 economic crisis is a topic that everyone who pays attention to the economy in later generations cannot bypass, and when the economic crisis broke out, Wen Yu had just stepped into the university gate, and he studied economics, so he naturally had to pay attention to this major event. Through the guò media and the mouthpiece of the brick family called the beast, the whole process watched the thrilling war, and then with the prevalence of various decryptions and insiders, it can be regarded as a detailed understanding and grasp of the general trend. The clearest sentence in my memory is that the then Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad said: The economic system we spent 40 years building was suddenly destroyed by this idiot with a lot of money.

This idiot with a lot of money is George Soros.

Ning Xi felt weird about Wen Liang's opening of such a big topic, fortunately, she herself became famous at a young age, and she didn't know how many geniuses she had seen in Wharton, so she wouldn't ignore the other party's abilities and opinions because she cared too much about her age.

"Since the early 90s, the major developed countries in the West have begun to recession, while Southeast Asia, such as Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, has experienced rapid economic growth, which is known as the Asian miracle. Many economists say that the future of the world lies in Asia, and they are naturally optimistic that Asia will continue to become a new growth point of the world economy in the next 10 years. This is also the view of international finance, which I personally studied. ”

Ning Xi was born in one of the most famous business schools in the world, majoring in international finance, and must have an in-depth understanding of the Asian economy and the world economy. However, at that time, Southeast Asia's economy was developing rapidly for ten years, and there were more models of reform and development such as the Asian Tigers, which were highly respected by international institutions, and in 95 years, all countries were in a good shape, and the entire Asian market and major countries were filled with optimism.

Ning Xi has such an opinion, which is expected by Wen Xin, which is inevitable. Princeton University economist Paul? Krugman, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics in '08, whose main research areas include international trade, international finance, currency crises and exchange rate change theory, he boldly predicted the Asian financial crisis in the book "Popular Internationalism". Not to mention that it didn't attract much attention at the time, and more importantly, the book was only published in 1996.

In other words, there may be people who can accurately and surely confirm the outbreak of the Asian economic crisis in '95, but the warmth and forgiveness must be one of them.

The crisis that swept Asia has a deep global context, and later generations have generally analyzed the crisis in three schools: structuralism, marketism, and new economic theory. In fact, from a monetary point of view, East Asian countries have maintained a fixed exchange rate system on the one hand, and expanded financial liberalization on the other, which has given an opportunity for international investment of up to 7 trillion yuan. From '93 to '96, the amount of money flowing into East Asia was as high as $500 to $100 billion a year, and the result was a surge in credit, excessive risk assumption by banks, a deterioration in the debt situation, and a vulnerable collapse of the monetary system when the central bank raised interest rates to a level sufficient to defend the exchange rate in the event of a speculative attack.

Wen Liang said with a smile: "Not long ago, I saw a research report made by Crosby Securities Company in Singapore, which made a very detailed analysis of the economic conditions of seven Asian countries, saying that Southeast Asian countries are facing the danger of economic overheating due to low labor conditions, deteriorating trade balances, and rising inflation; On the other hand, these countries will experience a growth recession due to excess production capacity, high corporate debt, and a lack of higher education and skilled labor. I think it makes sense, you major in finance, so you naturally know that the result of this will inevitably be high inflation......"

Wen Liang casually used the arguments and evidence of later economists to study the economic crisis of '97 to fool Ning Xi. There is a good saying: hindsight, like pigs beforehand, although these people are not good at predicting crises, their ability to analyze after a crisis is really first-class. A large number of corroborations, convincing figures, interlocking reasoning, and seamless arguments all make it clear that this is how the economic crisis erupted. …,

Wen Xiang's words were out of the ordinary at that time, and Ning Xi frowned from time to time, obviously not being persuaded by him. Because all these things can be collected with the heart, but if such a sensational conclusion can be reached because of this, economists all over the world can die.

Wen Yu didn't have the intention of getting Ning Xi to agree, and this opening was just to deepen her impression of herself in the shortest possible time. Samuelson said that the economy is actually a probability event, in other words, before it happens, anyone can talk nonsense, after it happens, it can be analyzed and summarized, anyway, wrong and right are not a problem, and I will do the same next time. This is also the main reason why there are so many mixed food guys in the field of economics, and they can continue to be like that forever.

Wen Liang played such a role at this time, the only difference was that after the economic crisis broke out, this Miss Ning Xi, who seemed to have a lot of money, would be completely impressed by his foresight. Uncle Wen looked stern and serious, but in her heart she was shameless: Maybe two years later, when she dreams back in the middle of the night, she will sigh that I have been so close to the greatest economist in the world, and I am the second person to know that this qiē will happen.

"If that's not enough, we can go back and revisit the Chilean crisis of 1982 and the Mexican crisis of 1994......"

Ning Xi shook her head again: "These are not enough to prove your point of view, the economic structure and development path of Latin American countries are not exactly the same as those in Southeast Asia, and the political and general backgrounds are also very different, which has no reference significance." In particular, in 92 years, the Thai government liberalized the capital market, and the scale and effect of introducing foreign capital over the years have been remarkable, and the role of promoting the economy is obvious, and the future prosperity is expected to be the consensus of most people. ”

"Thailand? Heh," Wen Yu sneered, "The economy is an organism, and it is often attacked from the weakest point. The Thai government dares to open the backyard of its own house before it is cleaned, and it seems that in the short term there will be a lot of customers and business will be prosperous, but what if there are robbers? With his current little arms and legs, can he resist? ”

Ning Xi listened to the gentle words just now, and he had long been impressed by him, not to mention the fallacy of opinions, but the ability to analyze problems from a macro perspective in terms of economic theory and macro perspective involved was no longer under many scholars. Unconsciously, he has completely put the other party on an equal or even higher level, listening to his words with disdain, he couldn't help frowning: "Hedge funds? No, the East Asian economy is known for its export-oriented nature and is the main beneficiary of the rapid growth of international trade, and the reason why it has been able to create the Asian miracle in recent years is not because of the active international capital flows, the annual growth rate of transnational bank loans has been maintained at 12%, and the annual growth rate of foreign direct investment is close to 14%, even if there are unstable factors, it is completely under control. ”

Ning Xi's thoughts are exactly what many people think now, but what they can't imagine is what kind of painful lesson Soros will teach this seemingly prosperous country a painful lesson. "Not bad! However, some people can always do what others can't do, mobilize more funds than anyone can imagine, and rush through the defense line of these foreign powers and middle-class countries at once. ”

"For example?"

Ning Xi's expression was completely different from the beginning, and it was obvious that the gentle words had caused her a certain impact.

"For example, Soros!"

"Soros? Heh," Ning Xi laughed and said, "It's not that he hasn't come to make trouble, and in the end, didn't he still leave in disgrace?" ”

Ning Xi said that in 93, Soros thought that the Malaysian ringgit was underestimated and decided to use it as a breakthrough to launch an encirclement and suppression, but there was no chance to take advantage of Mahathir's counterattack, so he withdrew his troops for the time being. The defeat also misled Asian countries into believing that a similar attack could be defended, but did not expect that a war would follow.

Wen Liang didn't smile at all: "93 is just a test for him, a small test, the funds used by the same party to contact can be ignored, but let the current shape develop, once the time is ripe, it will inevitably be followed by a thunderous blow." You have eaten the bread and milk of capitalism for so many years, and you will not be unaware of the terrible energy ...... of these predators"...,

Ning Xi was not persuaded by Wen Liang in the end, but Wen Liang also achieved his goal, and the next negotiations were much easier.

“…… To change the topic to a lighter one, do you know the lipstick theory? Many words domestic inflation is so strong, just as women can't afford luxury cosmetics and have to buy lipstick to vent, many ordinary people will also be willing to make a little improvement in their diet. This is one of the reasons why I chose to develop Qinghe at this time. ”

"Second, although the catering is profitable, the market segmentation is not enough, and the breakfast industry has not yet started. What kind of market is the most profitable, is the prospect is huge, urgently need to explore but has not yet formed a cruel competition in the new market, and the breakfast industry or Chinese fast food industry, in the current domestic is still a big blue ocean. ”

"Blue Ocean?" Ning Xiaoning had been listening from the side, and this was the first time she had interjected to ask. Wen Liang knew what he was talking about to Ning Xi, and this little girl didn't understand 90% of the time, but instead of feeling bored, she listened attentively.

Small money fans are still a little different.

Wen Xiang's attention was all on Ning Xi, and he didn't notice that Ning Xiaoning's eyes were even more different after the debate just now, and the cold eyes in the past implied a strange look that he had never seen before, and occasionally he didn't know what he thought, and there would be a touching shyness and gentleness.

Not to mention Ning Xiaoning, even Ning Xi asked, "What is the blue ocean, why haven't I heard of it?" ”

Wen forgive then remembered that the book "Blue Ocean Strategy" was not published by Professor Qian Jin and Ms. Mauborgne until 2005.

(Sealed push, bow and thank everyone, thank you) ......,