Timor-Leste is an island nation located at the eastern tip of the Nusa Tenggara archipelago, including the Oecussi region on the east and west north coasts of Timor, as well as the nearby island of Atauro and the eastern tip of Yaku. It is bordered by Indonesia's West Timor to the west and Australia across the Timor Sea to the south. In April 1976, Indonesian troops invaded East Timor. In July, Indonesian President Suharto signed a special bill declaring Timor-Leste the 27th province of Indonesia. In 1978, the Indonesian People's Consultative Assembly passed Decree No. 4 on the approval of the Act, which formally incorporated Timor-Leste into Indonesia. In December of the same year, the United Nations General Assembly adopted a resolution calling on Indonesia to withdraw its troops from East Timor, calling on all States to respect the territorial integrity of East Timor and the inalienable right of the people to self-determination.

Since then, the United Nations General Assembly has repeatedly adopted resolutions condemning Indonesia's aggression against East Timor and holding that the administrative jurisdiction of East Timor belongs to Portugal. From 1983 to early 1998, under the good offices of the Secretary-General of the United Nations, Indonesia and the Portuguese Government held more than a dozen rounds of negotiations on the East Timor issue, but no substantive progress was made.

On 11 November 1991, mass bloodshed broke out between demonstrators and the army in Dili, the capital of East Timor. The issue of Timor-Leste has once again attracted widespread attention from the international community when the TNI opened fire on unarmed independence demonstrators at a cemetery in Dili, killing more than 100 people on the spot.

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Aceh is located in the westernmost part of Indonesia, at the northern tip of Sumatra, and its capital Banda Aceh is 1,600 kilometers away from the capital Jakarta. Nestled by the Strait of Malacca in the north and the Indian Ocean in the west, Aceh covers an area of nearly 60,000 square kilometers and has a population of 4.6 million, 98% of whom are Muslims. Aceh is rich in natural resources such as oil, natural gas, gold and silver mines, and timber, which is the main source of income for Indonesia.

The Acehnese had made a special contribution to the establishment of the Republic of Indonesia, but after independence, the centralized policy of the central government deprived the Aceh people of many powers and economic benefits, and most of their income was taken away by the central government. After the 90s, the exploitation of the province by the Suharto government intensified.

In the 1997-1998 fiscal year, Aceh's natural gas resources alone contributed $4.5 billion to the central government's finance, while Aceh's local finance was only $21.4 million in the same year.

As early as the early 50s, the Aceh separatist movement gradually emerged due to the central government's revocation of the status of the Aceh Autonomous Region, the disbandment of the Aceh Legion, and the ban on the trade activities of local soldiers, but the climate did not form due to the brutal blockade of the government.

In December 1976, the "Free Aceh Movement" was founded, a small rebel group that grew and grew thanks to the support of the people, and later the separatist forces combined with the exiled Aceh aristocracy to establish their headquarters in Switzerland and systematically confront the central government and wage guerrilla warfare. Since the beginning of the "Free Aceh Movement", there has been a constant conflict between the Indonesian military police and armed elements in Aceh. Local residents, in particular, discovered the "mass graves" of those killed by the military during the Suharto era, which exacerbated the Acehnese's secession from the central government. The masses of Aceh openly confronted the government's orders, making it difficult for the government to rule in Aceh.

Although the Indonesian government has been a headache for the Indonesian government for 20 years of independence movements, East Timor and Aceh have always insisted on sending heavy troops to suppress them and implement a high-pressure policy to rule the two places. With the government's regular army on one side and the militia on the other, the war between the two sides can be imagined. In the past 20 years, according to incomplete statistics, a total of 18,817 Acehnese have been killed, more than 4,000 people are missing, and more than 40,000 people have left their homes.

The Indonesian government has spent more than 20 years unable to completely quell the rebellion in both places, and the war situation has even deteriorated several times. Because it was an open secret, Indonesia's government forces never imagined that they would put down the rebellion in both places. If there is no rebellion, how can the military participate in politics, how can the military exercise military control over the whole society, and how can the military obtain huge benefits?

Until 93, the rebel forces in Aceh and East Timor, through secret channels, received strong support from the Xingtian Society in terms of equipment, training, and intelligence, and their actual combat capabilities became better and better, and they reached a stalemate with the government army in the jungle several times. In particular, in March '98, the rebels in Aceh actually had portable missiles and destroyed three helicopter gunships of the government army in a battle, which caused an uproar in the whole of Indonesian society.

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War is a huge money-eating beast, the stalemate between the government army and the rebels, and even the situation began to deteriorate, coupled with the financial crisis of the past two years, Indonesia's finances finally went bankrupt, and even the salaries of public officials could not be paid normally.

If Indonesia is still the same as it used to be, perhaps with the strong support of the military clique, Suharto can still control the domestic political situation, and there is still room for maneuver in many things, such as borrowing from the International Monetary Fund and issuing additional currency. However, the Americans have just touted him as the 'father of Indonesia's development', and this nearly eighty-year-old man is no longer willing to give up the enormous international prestige he has just gained, and has made a wrong move -- cutting military spending, negotiating with East Timor and Aceh rebels, and trying to peacefully resolve the independence movements in both places.

Suharto, the dictator who has held power in Indonesia for 30 years, has completely lost the sanity of a politician under the temptation of great fame, and poked a big hole in Indonesia's sky. Because Indonesia is a military-governed society, and the army is the foundation of the country's rule!

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Indonesia is a "decentralized" country with 366 ethnic groups spread over 13,000 islands. Low economic levels and social unrest have always been a major problem plaguing the Indonesian government, and the military has always played a unique role in the Indonesian government, and it is also the most important tool for Suharto to maintain his rule.

It can be said that Indonesia is a country governed by military personnel, and the military has absolute control over the country, and the military group is also Suharto's most solid ruling foundation, participating in political life in an all-round way.

In the central body, 12 of the 27 ministers of the Cabinet are military personnel, who occupy important positions in the Ministry of Defense and Security, the Ministry of the Interior and the Ministry of Economy; In local governments, military forces have also made a big move. After the 1971 election, the military made up 22 of the 26 governors. In 1969, 147 of the 271 mayors and county magistrates were military. By 1971, the proportion had risen to two-thirds.

In addition, military personnel are represented in the highest organs of state power. Of the 500 members of the People's Congress, 100 are appointed by the President from the army.

In the economic field, the military also controls many important areas that have a bearing on the national economy and the people's livelihood, and the military has actually become a special organization that "cannot be touched by the tiger's buttocks."

After decades of military rule, how many shady things have those high-ranking officers done, how many promotion opportunities have they received, and how many practical benefits have they received? How much benefit did those high-ranking generals gain from trading with various forces by relying on the power in their hands?

If you negotiate with the rebels, will it mean the end of the military junta and the beginning of Indonesia's move towards democracy? Does it mean that the military is beginning to withdraw from politics completely? Will the honors that the military has achieved over the past few decades be evidence of the repression of its own people in the future?

Huge panic began to spread within the military, especially as the financial crisis left the public extremely dissatisfied with the government, and two opposition parties, the Construction Solidarity Party and the Indonesian Democratic Party, were on the verge of taking the opportunity to come to power. If they come to power, the shady army will inevitably be the first target of their sword!

Under all these pressures, a tandem began to emerge within the army, and Suharto's son-in-law, Prabowo Subianto, commander of the Army's Strategic Reserve Forces, became the center of this tandem.

Prabowo Subianto was born into one of Indonesia's richest families, his father Sumitro Subianto was a famous Indonesian economist in the 50s of the 20th century and one of the leaders of the Socialist Party, a right-wing middle-class intellectual party in Indonesia, founded in 1948. At the end of the 50s, Sumitro Subianto was exiled abroad for leading an armed rebellion against Sukarno. In the 70s of the 20th century, with Suharto's rise to power, Sumitello returned to China as Minister of Trade, while his son Prabowo was sent to the military academy for further study and began his career as a horseman.

With such a family background, Prabowo Subianto himself was brave and good at fighting, made many military exploits in East Timor and Aceh, and married Suharto's second daughter Hediati, so he rose through the ranks of the army quickly, and was promoted to lieutenant general before the age of 40 and served as the commander of the army's strategic reserve forces.

The smooth sailing of life makes this Lieutenant General Prabowo, who is less than forty years old, extremely proud. As an elite of society, he can see that the future trend is democratic and open, but he cannot accept his father-in-law's decision in any case. Because that means that his more than 20 years of fighting horses has become a joke, and their Subianto family will also be affected!

In the past 30 years, although the Suharto family has been rich and rich because of its great power, why not the Subianto family?

If, according to Suharto's decision, military spending is cut and negotiations are made with the rebels, the first thing will be to arouse the discontent of the military group and shake the foundation of Suharto's rule. Once the military clique no longer supports it, the Suharto family will inevitably lose its current status, just like the founding president Sukarno thirty years ago, becoming a puppet under house arrest! And Prabowo Subianto, who is attached to the Suharto family, will also lose his current status, and even his own family will be liquidated!

If you want to keep your life from becoming a joke, the only way to keep your family brilliant is to continue to practice military control and continue to fight the counterinsurgency war! Only by continuing the war can the military clique continue to control the country, continue to get great benefits in the war, and continue to support Suharto's rule!

This was understood not only by Prabowo, but also by other generals and even members of Suharto's family.

Now Indonesia has been hit hard by the financial crisis, destroying 30 years of prosperity, plummeting the exchange rate of the national currency, soaring fuel and food prices, and boiling public resentment. As long as you create a social chaos, divert the attention of the people, and then let the army come forward to quell the turmoil at a critical time, you can forcibly implement military control, fight the war, safeguard the interests of the military group, and let them continue to support Suharto's rule! At the very least, the current state of society must be maintained until the military clique does not reach an off-stage deal with other political parties!