Chapter 539: Disaster Affects the Pond Fish
In the end, no matter how bad the Thai economy is, the rubber trees will still grow there, and they will not run away.
Due to the particularity of rubber products, rubber plantations will only tap rubber when rubber futures expire. Rubber producers buy short orders on the futures market and sell spot to holders of expiring contracts. In this way, no matter whether the price of rubber rises or falls, they can have a stable profit. They are not keen on speculating in the futures market, but more for hedging.
What is really operating the rubber futures price is actually the international rubber traders.
Although the Singapore Rubber Exchange mainly does Thai rubber products, the price will still be affected by the entire Southeast Asian rubber market.
As long as the Southeast Asian market does not collapse as a whole, the impact of Thailand's financial collapse will eventually be erased.
Although he firmly believed his judgment in his heart, Hirano Mototo still stared closely at the big screen in the exchange hall.
Even with so many people coming forward, the price of rubber futures did not immediately stop falling and rebound. It will take a long time for their efforts to be revealed, and millions or tens of millions of lots of transactions cannot be completed instantaneously even by electronic systems. In the process of matching one by one, time just flies.
To be honest, Pang Zhou was also very nervous in his heart. Others don't know, but he absolutely knows the truth about the Six Ears Investment Fund. With a scale of tens of billions of dollars, the actual amount of losses that can be sustained is only one-fifth.
The average price of more than 8 billion US dollars of short orders is at 36 baht. Of course, with the reduction of the exchange rate of the Thai baht against the US dollar. The current price of rubber can be regarded as one-tenth less than before, and the average price of empty orders in Pang Zhou's hand is now equivalent to 39 baht. Less than 39 baht. He is making money, and it is higher than 39 baht. He's just losing money.
Even if the price of rubber exceeds 47 baht, he will be completely liquidated. Of course, this line will continue to rise in the future as the Thai baht continues to depreciate.
At the same time that many bulls bailed out the market, the price of rubber futures first fell slightly, and then urgently rose by 0.8 baht. Then it fell by 0.5 baht, then rose by 0.3 baht, and fell by 0.7 baht......
Seeing the curve formed by the price change, everyone's faces became ugly. It doesn't matter if the futures price goes up or down. Everyone continues everywhere means is. What they are most worried about is that it is now, not up or down, but constantly oscillating.
The power of the bulls and bears is pulling, and there is no clear direction. This makes the whole market full of dangers, and if the direction is clear early, everyone can naturally withdraw without much loss. But if we can't see the direction early, we must increase the power of investment.
If one side runs out of ammunition first, the result will be a catastrophe. By this time, the two sides had invested tens of billions of dollars in capital, which could buy almost the vast majority of futures contracts on the Singapore Rubber Exchange. In the face of such a huge amount of trading volume. The loser will face the possibility of not being able to clear the liquidation.
The market is so big, after two big fat people are stuffed in, once the winner is decided, there will be no more retail investors who can't open their eyes to be pick-up heroes!
"Hirano Trading Company, buy another 1 million lots."
Hirano Yuan also saw the appearance of Pang Zhou, who was not far from him, at this time. I didn't expect that behind this Egwen company, there would be a Chinese sitting in the town.
There is no way, the Chinese people of China, Japan and South Korea are sitting together. Everyone will have their own radar, so it is easy to distinguish who should be hated. Hirano Mototo just glanced at it. I already know where Pang Zhou came from.
"I'll sell it to you." Pang Zhou did not hesitate and responded directly.
In fact, the market is already quite saturated at this point. The pool is so big, but there is not much living water left.
If Pang Zhou wants to buy a short order, he must first borrow rubber futures contracts, sell these contracts, and then agree to return the same number of rubber futures contracts at a certain point in the future.
If the price of these rubber contracts sold by Pang Zhou falls in the future, then he can buy back the same amount of rubber futures with less capital to make up for it, so as to generate a profit from the price difference. But if the price of rubber futures at the time of his repurchase is higher than the price he started, it will naturally produce a price difference loss.
And Hirano Yuan is much simpler to start with more orders. Buy rubber futures and wait for the price to appreciate.
But one problem is that rubber futures continue to gather in the market, and Pang Zhou may face a situation where there is no way to borrow.
Unless, borrowing more than one of his acquisitions from Motono Hirano......
To put it simply, the plate of Singapore's rubber futures market is actually very small, about billions of dollars. At this point, Pang Zhou wants to go short, and at the same time, there must be people with multiple orders in hand to continue to go long......
In this case, it is a bit like playing drumming and passing flowers. Bulls such as Hirano Yuan bought rubber futures contracts from Pang Zhou, and Pang Zhou wanted to short and also asked Hirano Yuan to lend rubber futures contracts. Can't Moto-Hirano travel without borrowing? No, then he's the one who beats the drum and smashes the flowers. Only by discovering the final price in the process of capital flow can this dangerous game be ended.
This situation has also caused the current futures price see-saw form, everyone is constantly changing hands, constantly increasing the trading volume, and constantly throwing real money into it - but in fact, there are only so many rubber futures that act as weights. Fragile balance, that's what the current is really described.
One side falls and loses all the bones, or one side eats all the fruits of victory.
The two billion dollars of weight in Pang Zhou's hand were exhausted again in a few hours. In fact, at this time, every futures contract in the market has probably been resold N times. This long-short war has long ceased to be a process of discovering the forward price of rubber, but has become a tool for both sides to bet.
And time in the eyes of gamblers is always fleeting.
"More than 3 million lots!" Hirano Yuan had red eyes and looked at Pang Zhou viciously. This was already his last bit of capital, and the 5% leverage obtained by Hirano Trading Co., Ltd. and Guò Relations Bank was no longer able to support his madness. The other bulls, although not as crazy as him, are already exhausted.
If Pang Zhou didn't have a reliable bank to provide leverage, and the $10 billion margin was enough to leverage $200 billion, then everyone wouldn't have to play and just wash and sleep.
His 10 billion yuan was originally the capital after repeated mortgages of Huamei Bank, and the disadvantages of the labor expedition were gradually revealed.
Hirano Yuan shouted out this number habitually and waited for Pang Zhou's counterattack, he waited for a while, and then waited again. looked at Pang Zhou, who was standing not far away and was looking at his watch, and suddenly laughed.
"Hahahaha, Egwen's company has no funds? Admit defeat, as long as you admit defeat, I will pity you and leave you a plane ticket back home......"
Pang Zhou's silence made the other bulls in the outdoor corridor of the big household also excited, there is no doubt that the biggest short in the entire market is Pang Zhou, as long as he is defeated, the price of rubber will inevitably soar!
"More than 200,000 lots!"
"More than 500,000 lots!"
"I want more than 1 million lots! Hey, Egwen's boy, do you dare to take it? ”
Pang Zhou's watch faithfully performed his duty, he turned a deaf ear to the provocations around him, and only counted intently how far the hour hand of the watch had traveled.
At this time, the Thai baht has fallen by more than 17%, and the Thai baht, which was 25.2 yesterday, has now fallen by 30 baht under the floating exchange rate system: less than 1 US dollar. Pang Zhou's stop-loss line has even reached a price of 52 baht.
He pledged Thai baht for every rubber futures contract he borrowed, and the proceeds from each short sale of rubber futures were converted into US dollars. With just one in and one out, he is actually invincible.
So, what exactly is he waiting for?
"Oh, I guess it's about the same." Pang Zhou looked up from his watch, ignoring everyone's oppression, but looked at the scrolling message area on the big screen on the trading floor.
Coincidentally, the moment he looked up, there was suddenly new news in the news scrolling area.
"The Malaysian ringgit was affected by the Thai baht and announced a 3% decline."
"Malaysia has announced that it will abandon the fixed exchange rate system."
Malaysia's currency is the ringgit, which is relatively closely linked to the Thai baht. In the process of attacking the Thai baht, Soros has constantly attacked the Thai stock market, futures and financial markets. In fact, the economic operation of the whole of Southeast Asia has also been affected.
After all, Thailand is actually similar to the problem of the rubber futures market, and there are many Wang Ba who are too shallow in the pool. So many of the kings had no choice but to go to the next pond - this unlucky pool called Malaysia was suddenly occupied by the kings.
Not only the Malaysian ringgit, but also the Philippine peso and the Singapore dollar, which are countries that can be influenced by the Thai economic circle, were also under pressure from different times on the same day that Thailand was attacked. Of course, Malaysia, which is responsible for 20% of the world's natural rubber exports, is the worst pond fish to be affected.
When Hirano Yuan saw these two pieces of news, his head almost instantly flushed with a wave of dizziness! If possible, he would even be willing to pay ten million dollars per word to buy these two pieces of information and throw them into the deepest part of the Mariana Trench.
It's a pity that behind these two pieces of news, maybe every word is calculated in billions of dollars.
At this moment, the price of rubber futures rolled into the abyss...... (To be continued......)