Chapter 536: Rubber
The Asian financial crisis of 1997 generally followed a general course from Thailand and then south to Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia.
In just half a year, the financial turmoil has swept through Southeast Asia. The so-called Asian Four Little Dragons and Four Little Tigers are all trembling in the face of this hurricane. Any country with a liberal economic system, where Soros's eyes are focused, will suddenly collapse. For the first time in the world, finance is showing its enormous, no less destructive power than war.
After sweeping Southeast Asia, they continued to move north. Soros's next target was originally Hong Kong, but unfortunately he ended up in the end. Then it turned to Japan, South Korea, and finally even Russia. Even Japan, the world's second-largest economy, is in danger under the impact of this wave. In the end, if the U.S. government had not come forward to protect Japan, it would have been difficult to predict what would have happened.
After such a circle, the economic development dividends of the entire East Asia in the past decade or so have evaporated. Of course, this is not accurate, because of China's strict domestic supervision of foreign investment and narrow financial investment channels, Soros does not have a good opportunity to attack China. Coupled with a head-on attack in the Hong Kong market, Soros has actually gained little from China.
This makes the so-called "Asian financial crisis" somewhat unworthy of the name, without China's "Asia", is it still called Asia?
It's as if someone started a war in Siberia, where Russia is excluded, can that be called a war in Siberia? The Asian financial crisis, in fact, should be called the Southeast Asian financial crisis, I am afraid it would be more accurate.
Of course, this does not mean that the Asian financial crisis has no impact on China.
First of all, it can be seen that the financial crisis swept most of China's eastern neighbors from south to north. In the long run, it provides an external basis for China to open the blockade of the first island chain, but of course this is far away.
Near. Some projects that were originally intended to invest in Southeast Asia may have gone to South America or Eastern Europe. Some of it has also flowed into the country.
More recently, the amount of foreign investment in China has been affected. In the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis, China's rapidly growing foreign investment remained flat or even declined for five consecutive years. Although Southeast Asia's capital is trying to escape the economic environment of its own country, it has decreased by a large part due to foreign exchange rates.
In addition to this, the political and social unrest in China's neighboring countries, the regression of Thailand's political system, and the coming to power of the military junta. ...... in Indonesia. Forget it, let's not talk about Indonesia.
Japan began a decade of disappearance, but instead paved the way for South Korea to occupy the international market.
This economic crisis has indirectly provided strong support for Putin to come to power and his policies.
Therefore, it is difficult to say whether the impact of this crisis on China will be beneficial and harmful. Although Zhou Shuo reminded Director Lang very early, it was not something he could guess about how the country would consider it.
Tian Guodong's appearance made him a little excited, which shows that the state does not completely hold the opinion of non-interference, but chooses limited interference.
On the one hand, they may want to grab some more benefits from this crisis, but on the other hand, they are also worried that such things will happen to them. It is difficult to say that China will be hungry for foreign exchange in the future. Isn't it a little scared out of Soros?
Tian Guodong stayed at the famous Ambassador Hotel in Los Angeles for a week, but he hardly visited any of the attractions in Los Angeles. Every day, I wake up from my hotel room and go straight to East West Bank's key account room for Zhou Shuo, where I spend the whole day. Then go back to your hotel room to rest.
The seemingly boring itinerary did not dampen his enthusiasm at all, but made his spirits more and more uplifted.
Without him, anyone in the banking industry could get into that large conference room. It's going to be like this -- whether he's from China or the United States.
Seeing money is nothing new for a banker. No matter how big and how much money there is, it is just a number in their eyes. But it was different for Tian Guodong, as the manager of the foreign exchange department of the Bank of China. He felt a little dizzy for the past two days.
Too much, too much money to see! Millions of dollars are flowing in this room at all times. If this money is gathered by countless depositors, it is fine, but tens of billions of funds "nominal" belong to a young man in front of him, a young man who is not yet 30 years old!
The world is simply insane.
Under Zhou Shuo's order, the traders and financial economists seconded from East West Bank continued to snowball the scale of funds. Tian Guodong felt that the air he breathed was a little sweet, it was the smell of dollar ink!
In just one week, Zhou Shuo's assets reached $22 billion. The principal amount obtained from mortgages and the sale of some assets is also more than $6 billion.
Pan Han Group can now be said to have gambled on its own.
It's a pity that Zhou Shuo is not Soros, and the relationship network operated by Pang Zhou cannot be regarded as completely in the financial world. Otherwise, like Soros, you can leverage dozens of times your capital by using various financial derivatives and high leverage.
In 1997, the entire Quantum Fund only had billions of dollars in its hands, but through these financial means, it expanded its own amount of funds dozens of times. Wielding a sledgehammer of hundreds of billions of dollars, this is what smashed the door to Southeast Asia's financial system. Otherwise, even if you know that the Thai economic system is not healthy, you can only look at other countries.
Zhou Shuo does not have such convenient benefits, investment banks will not trust him, ordinary American banks will not provide him with long-term loans, and financial brokerage companies will not provide him with high-leverage business. The qiē ammunition he needed for his attack had to be raised little by little.
$22 billion, which is barely enough now.
Of course, not all of this money is in Thailand. Today's Thai government is like a hedgehog, nervous about an unusual flow of money. Banks no longer offer baht lending and have raised interest rates significantly, from 10% to 1,500%.
Although today's Thailand is strong on the outside and dry on the inside, not everyone can crack the hard shell lightly to eat the tender delicacy inside.
Although he had already begun to prepare for the entrance, he had also taken the opportunity to throw out a part of the empty order of Thai baht. But this part of the funds is only used more than 2 billion US dollars, plus some financial instruments used, which is barely a fraction.
Wait for Soros to enter after he starts, and it will be too late. But how can Zhou Shuo enter Thailand with the remaining 20 billion in his hands?
In response to Thailand's harsh measures on the financial market, Zhou Shuo chose another path - the futures market. In addition to the most obvious Thai stock index futures, Zhou Shuo has high hopes for the rubber futures market in Singapore.
By 1997, rubber prices had been depressed for more than two years, and at the beginning of the year, Thailand, the world's largest exporter of natural rubber, adjusted its rubber protection prices. From 23 baht/kg to 28 baht/kg, this triggered a new round of growth in rubber futures.
Since May, the Singapore rubber futures market has continued to have a large number of short orders. Of course, under the premise that the market outlook is basically optimistic, these short orders have not actually affected the price of natural rubber.
Rubber futures in the Singapore rubber market are denominated in Thai baht, but the US dollar is still flowing behind it. According to Zhou Shuo's instructions, Pang Zhou exchanged the Thai baht obtained from buying the short order into US dollars, and waited for the US dollar to appreciate and then used part of the funds to buy Thai baht and then close the position, which is Zhou Shuo's thinking.
Yes, the Thai government only has a pitiful $30 billion, where is it enough for Soros and a bunch of financial predators behind him to devour? After thinking about it, Zhou Shuo decided not to grab food with this fund, but to find his own way. In the international rubber market, it is expected that there will be more dollars willing to play with the empty orders of rubber.
Who would have thought that the rubber futures market, which is obviously stable and rising, will not be unexpectedly unexpectedly disaster? After all, the international rubber speculators and the Wall Street financiers are far away.
"Mr. Pang, you're here, please take a seat!" Andy Liu smiled and invited Pang Zhou to sit on the chair and eagerly brought a cup of tea.
I heard that this Pang Zhou is a well-known investor in the United States, and his subordinates control the stocks of many well-known high-tech companies. However, in Andy Liu's eyes, under Pang Zhou's capable appearance, it is clearly a sweet and attractive cake. Since May, although he has not made a penny from the rubber futures he operates, he has already earned a penny just from the handling fee, and he wants to faint.
In the past few years, Pang Zhou's spirit has become more and more fierce in the United States. He picked up the teacup and took a sip of tea, then heard Andy Liu, who was standing on the side, ask, "Mr. Pang, I don't know how you plan to arrange today's operation strategy?" ”
"As yesterday, we continue to buy short positions in rubber futures. As long as there are short orders above 33 baht, buy them all. ”
"All?"
Andy Liu was slightly stunned, Pang Zhou's past operation was not to buy all, but to choose a part of it. Rubber futures are not a small plate, and it will be a terrible number to buy short orders with all your might, and such an operation is more likely to cause hostility from the predators in the field, and then carry out opposite operations.
"Well, all of them." Pang Zhou's face was very calm, and he just repeated his order.
Then he covered the corners of his mouth with a teacup and smiled slightly.
"It's not much time until the feast begins!" (To be continued......)