Chapter 112: The Second Yang Line (1)
"Carl ......" Jerry stopped talking, looked at the traders around him, pulled the worried Carl aside, and said in a low voice: "Just now the brokerage company called, urging us to call the margin again, and our position is close to the bottom limit of maintenance. β
"God, what the hell are these vampires going to do, don't you know we're going to make a profit tomorrow?" Carl clasped his head in his arms, a little incredulous at what he heard. "What the hell are these bitches going to do, now that the time for trading has passed, where are we going to get the money?"
At this time, the trading hours have passed, and although telephone trading is twenty-four hours, except for the trading hours in the United Kingdom, everything else is sporadic trading, and with the current position of the Carr Fund, even if it is traded overnight, it will not be able to close many positions.
"They also offer another option." After a long silence, Jerry finally put forward the broker's suggestion, "They invested $5 million to buy our entire position." β
"$5 million? Are they crazy? If I close the position now, I will have at least eight million capital! The British, raised by these bitches, will take advantage of the fire to rob! Carl shouted angrily and kicked the chair next to him, and the innocent armchair rolled on the floor several times with a loud thud before coming to a stop five meters away.
"Carl, if they pull out at this time, we will lose even more." Jerry had to be reminded.
In general, brokers strongly advocate the use of leverage by clients who use their brokerage channel, i.e. borrowing funds from the broker to operate. This is because the broker can earn commissions on more buying and selling operations, and on the other hand, he can earn interest on the surplus funds. However, the capital market is risky, and brokerage companies must always pay attention to the balance of such accounts, because if there is a liquidation, the brokerage company's funds may also be lost.
Obviously, in this case, the brokerage company's request for margin call is not excessive, at most it is a necessary measure for them to control the risk. The other option, which is to buy all their positions for $5 million in cash, is a naked robbery, because even at today's closing price. The Carr Fund's position remains worth $13.5 million. There is also about $5 million in cash.
Nearly $10 million of these funds are from brokerage companies, which means that the Carr Fund has lost $6 million so far, not only losing all the $5 million in profits that it had earned so hard, but also damaging the principal.
But even so. Carl's positions and cash add up. It is worth at least $8 million or more. It's no wonder that Jerry talks about the second option. Carl reacted with a thunderous look.
Seeing Karl's angry look, the other traders looked elsewhere and pretended not to care about themselves. But everyone's ears couldn't help but prick up, wanting to hear what Carl and Jerry were saying not far away.
"You say they will think of buying our positions instead of forcing us to close them?" After venting his anger, Carl suddenly calmed down and remembered the strangeness of it.
"That's exactly what I'm going to report to you." Jerry carefully looked at Carl's face and made sure that he had completely calmed down before he continued: "I personally think that their judgment of the market outlook is a big drop, otherwise they would not have made such a request." β
Thinking of this, Carl not only gasped, but also scolded these brokers in his heart for being too insidious. If you consider it purely from the fund side, taking $5 million from the broker's side, plus the cash in the account, basically does not make money and does not lose. But what is lost may be the decline in the market outlook and the large profits that come with it.
Even the amount was calculated so accurately, exactly $5 million, which is clearly a well-designed haode trap by the broker, based on the fund manager's rush to close the position and stop loss and the fall in the price of copper in the future.
"We put in a margin and maintained the ratio to 14 percent." After thinking about it, Karl decisively chose the first option. Originally, he was considering the second option, but since even the broker believes that the price of copper futures will fall in the future, then there is no reason why he should not hold the current position.
Jerry nodded, then called the broker, and it didn't take long for $1.5 million in cash to be transferred into their account, bringing the margin to 14%, and the total position value to $15 million, temporarily avoiding the danger of being forced out.
Just as this side was finished, the door of the conference room was suddenly slammed open, and the junior trader named William ignored the surprise of everyone here, and shouted loudly: "Oh no, the LME's inventory has been greatly reduced, just today!" β
"What? Dramatically reduced? The trader in the conference room was immediately dumbfounded, and looked at William, who was still gasping for air outside the door.
Carl couldn't care less about William, who had broken the rules, and saw him take three steps and two steps, quickly walked to the door of the conference room, and asked loudly, "Do you know what you're talking about?" What is the drastic reduction? How much less? β
"A full 100,000 tons, which occupies a quarter of the entire inventory, and it is also a warehouse here in London." William didn't talk nonsense either, and poured out all the information he knew.
"100,000 tons ......" Carl only felt that it was dark in front of him, and he almost fainted. He was not annoyed by the apparently bullish news for the copper futures market, but by the fact that the announcement was made after they had chosen to continue holding their current positions, which undone their analysis and actions.
The current copper established by the LME in the global warehouse is only about three or four hundred thousand tons on weekdays, and the inventory announced some time ago has been slowly increasing, which also gives Carl a reason to short. But now, in just one day, the inventory has decreased by 100,000 tons, how can this make the short sellers embarrassed?
Obviously, these contracts are not sold recently, at least three months ago. That is, in mid-August, someone targeted this batch of spot copper, and the price of copper at that time was still hovering around $2,500. In other words, the party that sold this batch of copper made at least $30 million.
The most frightening thing is that although the bears make a lot of money, this news is not good news for the short side. First of all, even if the delivery party immediately puts these spot copper on the market, the number of lots converted is only 4,000 lots, accounting for only 2.5% of the total number of transactions today, and the influence is extremely limited. Secondly, if there is such a long market for the purpose of delivery again. Bears should be careful with their positions. When the time comes, if they can't come up with the corresponding copper, something big will happen.
For the long side, this news is downright positive, because it can deliver so much copper at once. The biggest possibility is that those metal dealers who have a large demand for spot copper. They are the only ones who can come up with so much cash at once to settle the settlement. As you can imagine. Since the demand for copper is so strong, there is no possibility that copper prices will fall in the short term.
Carl shuddered at the thought of this. He slowly turned his head and looked at Jerry, who was also shocked, only to see that the right-hand man shook his head helplessly, and he immediately understood what Jerry meant.
"Everyone, as soon as the market opens tomorrow, we have only one goal, and that is to close all our positions in the shortest possible time!"
β¦β¦
Almost at the same time, on the Sumitomo Trading Company's side, traders also received the news that the LME warehouse had reduced its cash copper by 100,000 tons, and Hamanaka immediately summoned all the copper futures traders to the conference room for an emergency meeting.
"What's going on? Can someone give an explanation? Yasuo Hamanaka said angrily. As soon as he finished speaking, he saw that the traders sitting on both sides were staring at each other with big eyes, you looking at me and I looking at you, with an expression of not knowing anything at all, and the anger in Yasuo Hamanaka's heart became a little stronger.
"You know what? Gentlemen, the current copper futures market is no longer within our control. In other words, this is most likely a haode trap that has been laid out long ago, and if we hadn't gone long, it would have been difficult to get out of it now. "In the end, it is a master who has been fighting in the copper market for a long time, Yasuo Hamanaka can see this Jihua of Zhongshi at a glance, so he will not believe that this is a certain builder, or a metal merchant for the delivery of raw materials.
Massive deliveries on the day of the option's strike, and a significant price increase, set the tone for tomorrow's trade. Perhaps in the options market, the person who made this stock game is also the biggest executor, and almost in the shortest possible time, Yasuo Hamanaka guessed Zhongshi's jihua out of seven, seven, eight, eight.
"Don't tell me why spot traders need copper, it doesn't make sense. These simply can't explain how the timing of weishenme would be so coincidental, nor can it explain how there would be such a large cash copper delivery! Yasuo Hamanaka coldly gagged the trader's mouth who was about to defend himself, and continued to analyze very calmly: "If the guess is correct, they have been laying this game for at least a month, and they have already made most of the profits in today's market, if they are not wrong, they will be out of the position tomorrow." β
"What if they're going to go long?" Just as Yasuo Hamanaka was immersed in his analysis, an untimely voice rang out, it was none other than their ace analyst, Yasuo Ryusuke.
βweishenmeοΌβ Yasuo Hamanaka couldn't help but be a little stunned, and subconsciously asked.
Yasuo Ryusuke stood up, cleared his throat, and said with great seriousness: "In today's intraday, I found that in addition to us, there is another bull pulling up copper, and I think I am not the only one who has discovered this situation." However, according to my calculations, the amount of funds in this long shili is only a few thousand lots at most, so it is very likely that this shili is the option executor. β
"In addition to these new entrants, the side that has made a big deal today is obviously a long-term layout. But how do they know that today the long option side has overpowered the short side? The biggest possibility is that they concocted this delivery drama in order to stop the loss. β
"How so?" Yasuo Hamanaka frowned and asked with some puzzlement.
"The amount of money! The cash copper will require at least US$250 million in cash. In addition, if there is a large-scale bottom position, assuming that there are 20,000 lots, at least 300 million US dollars are needed, and all these aspects add up to no less than 500 million US dollars, and an account with such a scale of funds can almost be counted on one hand. β
"So you say today's settlement is just a means for them to hedge?" Yasuo Hamanaka's brow furrowed even deeper.
"Not necessarily, I think they also estimated the upside. But if they start to close their positions tomorrow, the price will inevitably plummet, and then they will inevitably spit out part of their profits, and even this spot copper will lose a part of it. Therefore, I conclude that tomorrow they will use today's earnings to push copper futures higher again. Speaking of which, Yasuo Ryusuke was already eighty percent sure, and he looked around the audience and projected an extremely confident gaze.
Almost everyone ignores the possibility that this batch of spot copper will be put on the market again, because it has nothing to do with what is being discussed. After letting everyone digest it for a long time, Yasuo Ryusuke continued: "If my guess is correct, this fund is from the American hedge fund, and it is very likely that it is the hedge fund that broke the Bank of England. β
"Therefore, in tomorrow's trading, not only do we not have to close today's positions, but we also have to work with them to go long and pull copper futures prices up again." (To be continued......)
PS: Thank you to the book friend Red Gold Armor Knight for voting for the first monthly ticket of the month! At the same time, I would also like to thank the book friends for their hard work and the monthly pass support of the Zebra Center yesterday! The bleak February has passed, and the brand new March continues to refuel, looking forward to more attention from everyone, xiexie~