Although the liquidity of the Thai baht foreign exchange market has been restored, this liquidity is based on the fact that the BOT has the ability to intervene in the market, and if the BOT loses the ability to intervene in the market, this liquidity will disappear soon.

At the moment, supported by disinformation, it is clear that this liquidity is not going away.

When liquidity in the market was restored, commercial banks holding Thai baht in the global market breathed a sigh of relief that their worst fears did not materialize. After the BOT intervention, the level of the Thai baht exchange rate increased and returned to the level of 26 baht to 1 US dollar.

At the same time, the commercial banks participating in the foreign exchange market have also begun to carry out foreign exchange transactions in an orderly manner, and arbitrage differences, exchange for US dollars, and foreign trade transaction settlements for Thai baht have begun to be active in the market again.

……

In the office of the president of the BOT, Malajia had a sad face and did not have the slightest smile. Yesterday's report on global market conditions was in front of his desk, but he didn't have the slightest idea of flipping through it.

Villawang's resignation also shocked him, giving him a feeling of sadness. Although the two do not work in the same department, one of them is in charge of monetary policy and the other is in charge of fiscal policy, and the two sides work together, and there are many exchanges between departments, and the friendship between them is also good.

In his heart, he admired the ability of the former finance minister. On weekdays, I ask myself, if I sit in Villawang's position, I am afraid it is impossible to do better than him. The tension that has caused Thailand's domestic economic situation today is not his fault in good conscience. Rather, it is the deterioration of the international situation as a whole.

Specifically, it is the result of the inability of the economy to transform quickly. Blindly relying on exports to drive the economy and relying on foreign capital investment to promote economic growth will not only cause a shortage of domestic demand, but also indirectly cause capital to flow to industries with quick results and short cycles, rather than industries that can really make profits for a long time.

As a result, if the foreign exchange market is slightly disturbed, this capital will quickly withdraw from Thailand, causing the entire country's economy to be in internal and external difficulties, as it is now.

And what the Thai authorities can do. Naturally, it is necessary to retain this capital. In this case, it is inevitable to keep the value of the baht stable. Because once the Thai baht depreciates, in addition to the hot money will accelerate the escape, those who really invested the funds will also choose to flee. When the time comes, it will be left to Thailand. I'm afraid it's just ruins and devastation.

But keep the baht from depreciating. How easy is it to say?

Expanding the volatility zone, this trick will definitely not work, because Mexico has learned from the past. This sudden fluctuation not only caused a more violent attack. And the entire Mexican market has been driven by a crazy flight of money, with the result that Mexico was forced to announce a devaluation in just two days.

As things stand, no country that has been under currency attack on Shijie has done more than the Bank of Thailand, imposing punitive offshore lending rates and banning local banks from lending to foreign investors.

But from the effect point of view, the form is still not optimistic, international capital not only was not frightened, but made a comeback in just two weeks, this time BOT is probably not facing the same situation as the last time.

In May, they also joined forces with the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to stop selling in the spot market, as well as the help of several other central banks. But now, according to his understanding, international capital is not only hoarding capital in Malaysia, the Philippines and other places, but even Singapore, a regional financial center, has begun to make moves.

Based on the reports on the positions of various banks in the foreign exchange market, the MAS found that there has been a significant increase in forward contracts in the recent past. In addition, there has been a significant increase in Singapore dollar loans in the short term, and although the current increase is not very significant, anyone with a discerning eye knows that this is the reason why the focus of the attack will not be shifted to other regions until Thailand has fully fallen.

Without reinforcements and dollars, the only way left is to ask for help from international financial institutions.

But as we all know, although the IMF and Shijie Bank nominally provide financial assistance to member countries, the decision-making mechanism of these institutions is that whoever has the most shares has more voting power. Needless to say, the country with the largest share must be the United States.

When he thought of the role of the United States in this currency crisis, Malajia broke out in a cold sweat. Although the IMF will certainly not die due to the purpose of its establishment, according to the rules and regulations, the firefighting loans that can be provided to Thailand are certainly extremely limited, and they will not be able to solve the urgent need at all.

More importantly, the IMF's aid comes with extremely strict strings attached, which are generally free market conditions for the government to open the market further and intervene less. In this case, the overall strategy of the Thai economy to rely on exports to lead economic growth will have to be completely adjusted, and it will be almost as good as tearing down and rebuilding.

Strictly speaking, the IMF is a state-level consortium, a product of the conditionalities attached to the Bretton Woods system. It was established to maintain trade surpluses and deficits in individual countries, but in reality it was a tool to promote a free market.

If small countries lose their trade protection, it is a big question whether capital will give them enough time to develop, and even whether they will eventually be able to maintain their economic independence.

"If you come, you will be safe!" Malaka sighed, his tone full of sadness and helplessness.

……

In the evening, Sawan, who was in charge of the foreign exchange market, knocked on the door and entered Malajia's office and reported to him the market situation for the day: "Mr. President, today a total of $1.4 billion in foreign exchange reserves were sold, and in the forward foreign exchange market, 400 million US dollars were consumed, a total of 1.8 billion US dollars. ”

Although he was mentally prepared, Malajia was still taken aback. Originally, according to his estimates, although the current foreign exchange reserves of more than 10 billion US dollars are not enough to support the stability of the Thai baht, it can be supported at least for a while, but judging from the current situation. I'm afraid that in a few days, the baht will be declared lost.

Seeing Malaka's uncertain face, Sawan smiled and said, "Sir, you don't have to worry too much. Today's exchange is mainly focused on the settlement of foreign trade in May, and it is believed that there will not be such a large trading volume after this time, and at the same time, foreign exchange reserves will rise. ”

Sawan took it for granted that this was due to the foreign exchange settlement season, and although he didn't believe it himself, he naturally didn't want to punch himself in the mouth, because the news of the successful defense of the baht came out of his mouth.

Naturally, Malagar would not believe what he said, but the deeper reasons were difficult to explain to him. I had to deal with a few vague sentences. When Sawan left, he immediately dialed the phone number of the prime minister's office.

"Malaka, is there something wrong?" There was a kind of exhaustion in Chawari's voice, and it was his idea to coerce Villawang to step down, and he only communicated with a few members of the inner circle beforehand. When the news of Villawang's resignation spread. Voices from all sides immediately came out. Even within the ruling party. There are also many voices of dissatisfaction with his behavior of rabbits and dead dogs.

The most important thing now is to identify a new finance minister as soon as possible and to quell the discontent of all parties. At the same time, economic stimulus policies should be implemented as soon as possible to turn the current situation around.

Malajia was not polite either, and said directly: "Another $2 billion was spent today." At the current rate, I am afraid that a devaluation will be announced in a few days. ”

There was silence on the other side of the phone, and after a long time, Chavali asked reluctantly: "Is this time an attack by state investors or is it due to the impact of Villawang's sudden resignation?" ”

"I'm afraid it's both!" Malagar said bitterly. Although he had some complaints about Chavali's sudden forced resignation of Villawang, it was at this point, and there was no point in talking about it now.

Chavali was silent for a long time before he said leisurely: "Since this is the case, then what else can we do?" ”

He also has some regrets in his heart about firing Villawang, although he knows that now is not the time for haode, but he urgently needs someone to be a scapegoat, and this person's status cannot be too low, he cannot be an unknown person, otherwise the overwhelming public opinion will be directed at him personally.

"I'm afraid you need to make a statement in person to explain to the outside world the reasons for Villawang's resignation and reaffirm your determination to defend the baht and give the market a positive reaction." Malagar said cautiously.

He has almost thought of all the ways he can think of, but now he can only continue to pull the tiger skin to support the banner, hoping to scare off some speculators.

Chavali thought for a moment and said, "Is there only one way?" "Deep down, he is reluctant to make such a promise, because once the baht is finally lost, I am afraid that it will not be far from him leaving. But when he heard Malagar's answer, he knew that this was probably the only way, because Malagar's obvious consequences could naturally be thought of.

"I'm afraid it's hard to do anything other than this now." Malajia paused, as if remembering something, and then said, "It's not impossible, that is, to apply for assistance from the International Monetary Fund, but we can't support the day when the aid arrives." ”

"The IMF?" Chawari asked suspiciously, and immediately rejected the proposal, "If according to the current situation, after we declare the free float of the baht, what is the worst outcome?" ”

Naturally, he was not referring to the economic situation, but to the political future of both. Although it was a bit abrupt to throw this kind of question to Malagar, Malaka understood it and already understood the voice of Chavali's words.

According to the current development, the depreciation of the Thai baht is bound to trigger a financial crisis in Thailand, which in turn will cause panic in the entire market. Naturally, someone will need to be responsible for this situation, and the entire cabinet, including Chawalit, will be responsible for it. Follow-up candidates will be left to this mess, and when the time comes, they will reach out to institutions such as the IMF, and they will not be responsible for agreeing to the harsh conditions for opening up the entire market.

"At worst, we won't be responsible!" Malaka understood and said quickly.

Seeing him say this, Chavali smiled, then raised his voice and said loudly: "The IMF still needs to be contacted, if they can help us in time, it will be a good thing!" "He deliberately put the timing very seriously, just to let the Malagar drag it out at the right time.

"I see!" Malaka replied in the same loud voice.

……

"Thailand is over!" As Prime Minister Chawari solemnly reaffirmed his promise that the baht would not depreciate on television, Jongseok smiled and told a room of analysts. (To be continued......)

PS: Thank you for the Demon Dragon Warrior Ghost for voting for the monthly pass again! Thank you for the evaluation vote of the decadent fog of the book friend!