Calgary, Canada.

As you can see from the meaning of "clear flowing water", it is a city that is suitable for people to live in. Because of oil and gas, it is the number one energy center in Canada, the second largest energy center in North America, and the fourth largest city in Canada. Although it is an energy capital, Calgary has been voted "the cleanest city in the world" for many years because of its environmental efforts.

In addition to the energy center, it is also the Canadian headquarters of many financial companies, because where the "black gold" is located, capital naturally flocks in. The Canadian offices of Wall Street giants, including Goodman and Stanley, are located here, and it is one of the key cities in their commodities trading department.

It is precisely because of this that when Bond. When Hunter offered to set up a branch in Calgary, his boss, Nick, only thought about it for a moment and agreed.

When the New York Mercantile Exchange stopped trading, the traders did not immediately pull their legs away, but crowded into a slightly smaller conference room and began to discuss the day's market dynamically.

Originally, there was no similar meeting room in the offices of the Canadian branch of the Withered Flowers, and if they were to host investors, they would go to Greenwich, not Calgary. Here, all operational strategies are only needed to be discussed in the Trader's Room. But once after an inadvertent leak, Bond. Hunter rearranged the layout of the place, opening up and redecorating the original pantry, and turning it into the current slightly smaller meeting room.

Despite the thick glass curtain wall. Seven or eight traders can be clearly seen sitting around and discussing something, but even if they are a few meters away from the door, the people outside do not hear any sound at all, which is enough to see the soundproofing effect of the decoration here.

Usually after the market closes, these traders will pick up the car keys and go downstairs as soon as possible, because most of the time they are making money, and other tasks such as summarizing, clearing and other work are left to their colleagues at Greenwich. And today, because it has just entered the September contract, the front-month natural gas contract suddenly plummeted by nearly 10%. Such a sudden change made them nervous all of a sudden. After the transaction was over, no one left, and they all came to this meeting room.

"This should be the result of the exercise of the option in August, because too much bullish on the exercise of the option has caused traders to lose a lot. So on the September contract. They are cautious first. Observe the future market and then open a long-month option contract. A trader with a mustache at the corner of his lips swore by the analysis.

"You have a point!" A slightly older trader nodded, but quickly gave his judgment, "It may also be because of the moon." There is a temporary fluctuation in the market. Every time the month is changed, the price is not completely sustainable. In August, the long and short sides fought too hard, and the two sides finally closed the position or even delivered a lot of money, which was unsustainable for a while, so the price fell so much. ”

Because the positions of the non-withered funds are concentrated in September and October, as well as March and April of the following year, they do not pay much attention to the main contract in August. But as soon as the time for the month change arrived, they entered the peak trading period of the September contract, which was really related to their own positions, so all kinds of speculation appeared.

Just looking at the decline in contracts in September, the Withering Fund is not worried about anything, as they hedged accordingly in October. However, because it is an arbitrage combination, the difference between adjacent months is the problem they are most worried about, and because the price falls too fast, not only the spread in September and October has narrowed, but even the spread in the far month has also dropped a lot.

"Guys, here's news just came."

While the men were still talking about whether the collapse was due to option exercise or mass delivery, a blonde-haired trader walked in, waved the fax paper in his hand, and said, "This is the weather forecast for the next two months based on NASA's latest weather model." According to their forecasts, the probability of a hurricane forming in Texas in the next two months is 74.51%, and the probability of a large and very large hurricane is 4.45%, which is a bit low. ”

Hurricane season generally occurs in July, August and September, with August being the most common. Despite all the buzz in the market until then, so far, despite the formation of hurricanes near the Gulf of Mexico, the destructive power of these hurricanes is clearly not comparable to that of the super hurricanes of the same period last year.

And once we enter September, the probability of a hurricane of this size and type plummeting, and while it is still possible, it is much less likely than it was in August, and in some people's minds, almost negligible.

Therefore, after hearing his words, the faces of everyone present suddenly changed, and the originally noisy and noisy conference room suddenly became silent, leaving only the slightest gasp.

They are well aware that weather plays a very important role in natural gas trading, and it is not an exaggeration to say that they "rely on the weather for food". To know Bond. Hunter Howe's trade of more than a billion dollars was made possible by two rare hurricanes, and in mid-August, NASA released weather forecasts that a mega hurricane with low pressure would form in the Texas region in late September and October.

Now, the bad news is coming, and even NASA with the most advanced weather models cannot correctly predict the weather conditions in the next few months or longer.

"Guys, don't panic too much, at least so far, no agency has dared to stand up against us again!"

Just when everyone was flustered, Bond, who had not spoken. Hunter finally spoke. No loss is the core of the whole team, when he speaks. The hearts of the people are invariably relaxed, and this may be the charm of the leader.

After a calm glance around, Bond. Hunter said calmly: "Putting aside the weather factor, judging from today's market, there are indeed people who are coveting our position. However, judging from the fighting, the other side is not a strong financial side, so we don't need to worry. ”

"Even if the September and October arbitrage combinations fail, our key position is not here, but on the far moon, as long as the cold air from the Arctic crosses over the Great Lake of Angleau into the United States. We don't need to worry. ”

"But even so. The narrowing of the spread on our positions in the near month can also have a negative impact on our positions, so we must do something immediately to stop the negative impact of this news. Understand, gentlemen. Tomorrow. It starts tomorrow. We're going to fight back in the market and get the opponent, even though we don't know who that opponent is. Know how good we are. ”

"What?"

"Do we want to increase our position?"

"In this way, our position will be incomparably huge, you must know that we now have more than 80,000 positions, and if we increase our positions, I am afraid that there will be a suspicion of market manipulation at that time. And if there is a loss, I am afraid that our position will not be maintained. ”

"That's right, and with such a large position as ours, if there is a situation that cannot be maintained, it will be difficult to close the position, and then it will be an avalanche of losses."

Hear Bond. After Hunt's words, the traders immediately blew up, they were well aware of their current positions and possible deposits, so when they heard that Bond. When Hunter was ready to continue to increase his positions, most people thought, is his boss crazy? Didn't he know the consequences of doing so?

"Don't worry, guys, I was already anticipating what you are talking about!"

In the face of all kinds of doubts, Bond. Hunter only pursed his lips slightly, with a look of disdain on his face, "If we didn't dare to take risks, how could we have made so much profit before." Guys, risk control is something that the guys at Greenwich want to think about, all we have to do is make money, make money, and make money. ”

"Moreover, even if we close our positions now, the market will never let us go, our positions are too large. So, no matter what, we have only one way to defeat each other, understand? ”

Hear Bond. Hunt's words, everyone's faces darkened, and then they were silent, and they really couldn't think of any suitable reason to refute it. Because of their aggressiveness, their unclosed contracts now account for at least 30% of the unclosed contracts on NYMEX, and once a contract of this size is to be closed in the market, it will inevitably cause huge shocks, so it is too late to stop now.

Defeating their opponents is the only possible way out.

"Don't worry, the headquarters is now obedient to me, and I will send out an application later, and some more funds will be allocated from there, plus the floating profit on our position now, it should be enough to defeat any opponent."

After explaining the shape to everyone, Bond. Hunter wasted no time in reassuring himself that if they really had a huge amount of money, at least they could increase the spread between the long-month contracts, so that they could continue to maintain their current positions, and there would be at least half a year between now and March next year, enough time for them to slowly cast these positions in the market.

There is no way back, but to move forward, which has become the consensus in everyone's heart. After another long day of discussion, the traders left the conference room listlessly and went home.

Bond. Hunter didn't leave, he sat in the conference room, smoking a cigar and contemplating. Today's price drop has caused a huge loss to his position, but this is not unacceptable, because the floating profit of their position is currently as much as a billion dollars, and after this day's loss, he still has a lot of floating profit on the accounts of various combinations.

After thinking about the financial problem, he thought that not long ago, his boss Nick praised himself in the Wall Street Journal for being "good at risk control and measurement", but in the blink of an eye, he was close to the end of the road.

After thinking and thinking, finally Bond. Hunter let out a long sigh and dialed Greenwich, he needed to draw money from headquarters.

Nick on this side of the phone heard Bond. After Hunt's analysis and repeated assurances, he consulted with a group of high-level executives, and finally allocated another billion dollars from the pool to Canada. and Bond. Hunt, like him, is faced with a situation where there is no way out, and if his company's most profitable trader fails, his fund is almost close to liquidation. So, he had to fight to the end.

……

On August 29, when the natural gas contract opened, the price rose to $6.78, which was $0.32 higher than the closing price of the previous trading day, an increase of 4.95%, which shocked the market. (To be continued......)

PS: I'm sorry it's a little late today, but it's good to write it out, thank God~