Chapter 146: Drucken Miller
To Ma's slight disappointment, Soros did not come to Hong Kong, but sent his most powerful assistant, Druckenmiller, to handle the business himself.
Although the position in the rupiah is as high as $2 billion, this is only one-tenth of the total fund management size of the quantum fund, so there is no need for Soros to do it himself. In fact, he has become disheartened by this, and during this time he and his traders have called almost every bank, but no one has asked for their rupiah, including Bank Indonesia.
So when he heard that someone thought of the rupiah they had in hand, Soros only thought for a second and simply agreed. As for the specific price, the other party asked them to send a senior manager to negotiate, and Soros sent Drew Kenmiller to JFK Airport as soon as possible, and what he hopes most now is to get rid of these damn positions as soon as possible.
Now that he was able to negotiate, it showed that there was still room for maneuver in terms of price, and Druckenmiller spent a sleepless night on the plane, carefully analyzing and rehearsing countless details, scrutinizing every eventuality. It wasn't until the plane landed at Hong Kong's Kai Tak Airport that he could think of all the details of the negotiation that he thought might happen, and regardless of the fatigue of the journey, Druckenmiller got into the car that came to pick up the plane with a pair of scarlet eyes.
In the process of rushing to the office of the Tianyu Fund, he and Rodney, who also had a sleepless night. Jones quickly analyzed all of the details, and until the moment before entering the Tianyu Fund, they were still arguing over a certain detail. But when the figures of Zhong Shi and the others appeared in front of them. Only then did the two stop discussing and quickly greeted them.
Druckenmiller is tall, a full 1.9 meters tall, and his body is also very burly, and his muscular body holds up the suit very well. He has a standard white face, not handsome, but a bit bookish, and looks very gentle and elegant. If he hadn't known who he was, I'm afraid he would have been considered an ordinary middle class, or he could have been labeled as a Catholic and well-educated.
While Bell Stone observes Druckenmiller. Druckenmiller is also quietly watching Bell Stone: this is a typical Asian elite. Young, handsome, and energetic, perhaps his style of operation is aggressive and risk-taking, and because of this, he is able to dare to go short when the entire market is bullish on the rupiah. Maybe it was just a fluke. But not necessarily. But to be able to achieve such an accomplishment at this age. Running a fund of at least $1 billion is rare even on Wall Street.
After shaking hands and greeting each other, the two sides introduced each other's negotiation team. Under the leadership of Ma Jiarui, he walked towards the office of Tianyu Fund.
Passing by the busy trading floor, Druckenmiller noticed that his presence did not cause much commotion, and most of the traders and analysts in the hall just glanced at their group and turned their heads to go about their business. And this phenomenon is basically impossible to happen in other places, you must know that although Luken Miller is not as famous as Soros, at least in the financial industry, it is definitely a thunderous name. Moreover, in Bloomberg, Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Financial Times and other professional media, his large photos are also often exposed, so there is no professional who cannot recognize him.
In some small hedge funds or investment banks on Wall Street, once Druckenmiller appears, there are always three or five analysts who come to talk to him for various reasons, just to have a face-to-face conversation with him. And now, on the other side of the ocean, in this little-known hedge fund, all the traders and analysts are ignoring him, a highly unusual phenomenon that has caught Druckenmiller's attention.
It's just that before he could think about the deep meaning contained in it, the group had already walked to the conference room, and after the two sides were seated, they were ready to start negotiations on the deal of the Indonesian rupiah, and Druckenmiller had to put aside the anomaly just now and devote himself to the negotiations.
"The latest price in the market is 5,900, but according to my estimates, this price will continue to fall after our negotiations are over." The first to open his mouth was Zhong Shi, and after looking at the huge market projection on the wall of the conference room, a meaningful smile appeared on his face.
"I don't agree with that." Druckenmiller, who was unwilling to be led by the nose, immediately launched a sharp counterattack, "Mr. Zhong, just when I landed, I heard that the South Korean side just announced a news that they will issue 10 billion US dollars of government bonds, and at the same time cancel the 10% daily fluctuation of the Korean won, and let it float freely in the market, I wonder if Mr. Zhong has heard about it?" ”
The reason why he avoided the performance of the Indonesian rupiah and talked about the seemingly unrelated Korean won was not only to divert Zhongshi's attention, but also to examine the opponent's economic skills.
Sure enough, just after Druckenmiller said this, Rodney, who was sitting next to him. Jones smiled knowingly, touched his smooth chin, and stared at Zhong Shi across from him without blinking, wondering what the excessively young fund manager would say.
For this kind of little trick, Zhong Shi is naturally insightful, he picked up the cup unhurriedly, took a sip of coffee, and then said in a good time: "South Korea's self-help is timely, and several messages have been released in two days, and I believe that today's market will continue to rise." However, with the performance of one currency market in South Korea, I am afraid that the confidence of the entire market in the regional currency of Southeast Asia cannot be supported. ”
The eloquent analysis makes the logic between several markets clear. Druckenmiller was still somewhat composed, at least imperceptibly nodding his head, while Rodney. Jones's reaction was a little bigger, the smile on his face first froze, and then immediately disappeared without a trace, and he was still a little contemptuous of the other party, and his expression was solemn at this time, and he began to really pay attention to his opponent.
"Maybe one Korean market is not enough. But if you add to that yesterday's performance of the New York stock market and the London stock market. In addition, the Japanese economic rescue plan, which will be submitted to the Liberal Democratic Party for deliberation today, should be enough to make investors feel that the market is recovering. Druckenmiller was still unrelenting, and after Bell Stone revealed his intentions, he released several other bombshell news.
The performance of these markets will undoubtedly stimulate the rally in Asian markets to some extent, but not absolutely, as a result of yesterday's surge in South Korea's financial markets, which led to a shift in expectations for the current financial system in South Korea, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 84.29 points, and London also up 1.5%, driven by banks and oil stocks.
With Druckenmiller throwing out the news of today's market one by one. The pressure is back on Bellstone's side. Ma Jiarui, who was beside Zhong Shi, lowered his head. took advantage of the fact that he was not paying attention and quietly wiped a handful of sweat beads on his forehead, obviously nervous to the extreme. And across from him was Rodney. Jones's face was smiling again.
"Yes, what you said may be right for the won, no. It is a good chemical reaction that produces a good influence on the currencies of the entire Asian region. But if I'm not mistaken. Even if the rupiah will rebound on the impetus of these news. So it seems that there is still a big gap from the average price at which you opened a position, and don't forget that it is we who sold you these rupiahs. Zhong Shi rubbed the tip of his nose. Somewhat maliciously replied.
At the beginning, the Quantum Fund trusted its own judgment too much and bought rupiah everywhere in the market at a high price. The batch that Zhongshi sold to them was sold at 3,500 rupiah to US$1, and now the market price of the rupiah is 5,900 rupiah to US$1, a drop of 68.5%, and it is almost impossible to restore this price level in a short period of time.
Druckenmiller clenched his fists, and his already somewhat pale eyebrows jumped twice quickly, and then he replied unwillingly: "The average price of our position is a little higher, but we can hold it for a long time." And we already have an option, which is to invest in the Indonesian domestic market, maybe buy some oil, gold or something. Such things can allow us to avoid inflation, and when the market recovers, we can sell them. ”
"Oil? Gold? Zhong Shi snorted and replied coldly, "I originally thought that the famous Quantum Fund was the leader of the financial industry and the leader of the industry, but I don't know when you started to do business?" It's just that I don't know, when investors are ready to withdraw their capital, are you going to take a bunch of broken copper and iron to perfunctory them? ”
The exchange of this money for physical goods has also been discussed within the Quantum Fund, but it has long been denied. First, due to the unscrupulousness of the Indonesian government and the central bank, prices will definitely soar in the future, and the gains will outweigh the losses. Another point is what Zhong Shi said now, if there is a large-scale redemption phenomenon, it will take time for these physical objects to be realized, is it really necessary to use these things to deal with customers?
For hedge funds, the most taboo is the problem of liquidity, which is the same as most companies. Because they have to face the problem of customer redemption at all times, and due to the restrictions of laws and regulations, hedge funds can not be opened to investors on a large scale, and each hedge fund can only have a maximum of 100 investors, so that each investor will require a large share of redemption, and they must obtain absolute returns and cope with the redemption pressure that may come at any time, so this requires hedge funds to be able to raise sufficient liquidity in a short period of time, and to ensure that they will not be depressed by the other party. And the physical possession is definitely not considered in the scope of investment.
Druckenmiller was speechless for a moment, not knowing what to say.
Zhong Shi will not accept it when he sees it, and continues to attack: "If the rumors in the market about the indiscriminate issuance of currency by Indonesian banks are true, the Indonesian market will not know what will happen to the Indonesian market, and it is definitely not a wise choice to choose to hold Indonesian domestic physical goods in this case." Gold, oil and other markets continue to slump, I am afraid that there will not be much improvement in two or three years. Stanley, I'm sure you'll make a choice that is best for you. ”
"Don't forget, I haven't spread the news to the market that you are long rupiah. If the market knows about this situation, I'm afraid you and I don't know what will happen to Ludao. But what is certain is that this situation will never happen now. Seeing that the other party was completely speechless, Zhong Shi turned over the last hole card, and after snorting towards the projection screen, he leaned back, chose the most comfortable position, and looked at Druckenmiller with a helpless face on the opposite side with a smile.
Everyone looked in the direction indicated by Zhongshi and found that the rupiah rebounded and began to rise strongly shortly after falling below 5900. It's just that when Druckenmiller saw this scene at this time, he could only smile bitterly and shake his head.
Letting off the wind is the most common way to influence the market, and it is understandable if the other party wants to do so. Druckenmiller knows very well what the reputation of his fund is in Southeast Asia, and if the news of their long rupiah comes out at this time, he can think clearly with his toes, and then the short-sellers will definitely rush to the fund, all thinking of taking a bite of meat on the quantum fund.
For the market, the most taboo is to expose their positions and directions, and quantum funds account for both. These were fatal injuries that Bell Stone had said, and Druckenmiller could do nothing about them.
In and Rodney. After Jones discussed in a low voice for a moment, Druckenmiller raised his head again, stared into Zhong Shi's eyes and said, "Young man, you have made a very deep impression on me. Frankly, we've thought of a lot of options before that, but we've all rejected them in the end. You're a great opponent, and hopefully we won't collide again. Next, it's time to talk about the specific price. ”
Now that the other party had compromised, Zhong Shi also took advantage of the situation to get off the donkey, and said with a smile: "Stanley, you just made a mistake in judgment for a while. I believe in your abilities and would love to learn from you. I'm sure we'll have a chance to meet. ”
Druckenmiller just smiled, but in his heart he didn't agree with Zhong Shi's words.
……
After some fierce bargaining, the two sides finally reached an agreement at the 5600 position, and the deal ended with a huge loss of 60% in the Quantum Fund, which means that all the profits they had made on the baht were lost. Zhong Shi and his Tianyu Fund quietly brought in another $1.2 billion.
Then there are some details to be left to other personnel. Druckenmiller got up to say goodbye, and Zhong Shi accompanied him to the door, but when Druckenmiller just walked to the door, he suddenly stopped and said to Zhong Shi in confusion: "Mr. Zhong, I still have one more question, I wonder if you can answer it for me?" ”
Zhong Shi was stunned for a moment, then nodded with a smile and replied, "No problem, Stanley, if I can answer, I will be honest." ”
However, to Zhong Shi's surprise, Druckenmiller did not ask questions about trading, but pointed to the trading hall with people coming and going, and asked with a puzzled face, "Don't they know who I am?" ”
"You, come here!"
Zhong Shi secretly felt a little funny about this question, but instead of exposing it to his face, he beckoned to the nearest trader and motioned for him to come over. After the man walked quickly in front of Zhong Shi, Zhong Shi pointed at Druckenmiller and asked with an unnatural expression, "Do you know who this gentleman is?" Leo, your name is Leo, right? ”
"Yes, Zhong Sheng!" The trader, Leo, nodded respectfully at Bell Stone, then looked Druckenmiller up and down, and said with a little disdain, "Isn't he Stanley. Drucken Miller? The manager, partner, of the Quantum Fund, once beat the Bank of England. But it's not a big deal! ”
Druckenmiller, who was still a little proud, was stunned for a moment, looked at Zhong Shi who was holding back a smile suspiciously, and then looked at the trader named Leo, who no longer cared about any etiquette, and walked away directly on the spot.
"Did I say something wrong?" Seeing that the other party didn't even say a word, Leo was a little overwhelmed, scratched his head, and asked Zhong Shi a little blankly.
"Haha......ha (To be continued......)
PS: PS: In real history, the quantum fund did go long Rupiah, and it is said that the loss reached 40%, not that I said it nonsense in order to write a novel~ BTW: Thank you to the book friend Shi Huangtian, I don't pretend to be cool, and call my brother to vote for the monthly ticket support! Thank you for the book friend Xiaoyao Confidence and the super killer for the reward of this book!