Chapter 51: Pushing Up Oil Prices (1)
The next day, with Linda's assistance, Zhong Shi opened three different accounts in HSBC's brokerage department, corresponding to Zhong Shi's pre-registered Haode offshore financial company.
The reason for this is that he is afraid that the position of a single account is too large to attract the attention of regulators, so Zhong Shi also deliberately found another futures brokerage company to divide positions, which is also to prevent the monitoring of exchanges and SEC and other institutions.
Judging from the place where these accounts are registered, discerning people know very well that the funds on these accounts are speculative, and the operation in the market is particularly concerned, especially the smashing of large funds in a single direction. It is important to know that the original intention of the establishment of the futures market is to avoid the risk of crude oil prices, whether it is the spot market or the futures market, oil producers, refiners, etc. can participate, while speculative funds or institutions are strictly restricted from entering the spot market.
The spot market and the futures market are two relatively independent markets, the spot market is commonly known as commodities, and the futures market is different from the behavior of buying and selling contracts, where each contract corresponds to a considerable amount of commodities. For example, buying one contract in a spot market means that 1,000 barrels of NYMEX-eligible crude oil change hands, as does selling contracts. Because of this, the size and flow of funds in the spot market are much smaller than those in the futures market.
According to common sense, the two markets are in a competitive relationship, but it is precisely with the supplement of the spot market that the long and short sides of the futures market can better complement each other, for example, shorts can buy crude oil in the spot market for delivery, and longs can also hedge short in the spot market.
But there are drawbacks to this design. For example, a typical long short is that the long party sweeps away the crude oil in the spot market, and then forces the short to deliver in the futures market.
With a long force to short, there is naturally a short force to force long, and the way of operation is basically the same, but if the long is a large refiner, this situation is self-defeating. In both cases, the amount of money spent is sky-high. Just pay attention to the change in the current market positions. Maintaining the normal month change of the position in time can avoid similar situations to a large extent.
For funds that are not convenient to participate in the spot market, there are more ways to hedge, such as in different months. Diesel, jet fuel contracts and even the North Sea Brent crude oil (IPE) market can hedge positions accordingly. Although it is not possible to hedge all the risks.
Quite ironically. Hedge funds were born to avoid unsystematic risks, and even claimed to be able to avoid systemic risks, but due to the nature of private equity funds and the purpose of pursuing absolute returns. As a result, such funds often carry out all-out cross operations after identifying a direction, maximizing profits and maximizing risks.
However, this era is no longer the era of commodity funds, but the era of hedge funds with macro strategies, after all, in the context of economic regionalization, the risk of using attacks on the currencies of certain unbalanced countries is minimal. Just like the quantum fund, it can use leverage to attack the pound unscrupulously, because even if the pound does not depreciate, the quantum fund only pays a small loss from interest and exchange for a period of time.
And like commodity futures, it is almost impossible to make a billion casually. Take the WTI futures contract, which has the largest contract activity and the largest trading volume, for example, the amount of funds that can be accommodated every day is only about one billion US dollars, and the position is fixed at around 300,000 hands per day. Whether the price of crude oil rises or falls by six dollars, it is enough to shake the entire shijie economy!
Having said that, in the past few days of Zhongshi's preliminary preparations, the price of crude oil has not changed much, the price of the day is a small fluctuation, and the long and short sides have also engaged in a small battle, and the final result is that there are winners and losers for each other, but no one can help anyone.
This situation was broken on September 28, and it was on this day that Zhongshi's $1 billion in funds was officially disbursed to five separate accounts. Zhong Yi and others each have $100 million in their accounts, while the rest of their accounts are temporarily retained in HSBC's accounts, ready to be used as reserves.
The November crude oil contract opened at $18.16 on this day, $0.04 higher than the previous day's close, which is a good sign that in the free trading time after the auction phase, the bulls and bears are ready to start a contact battle after a little contact, as was customary in the previous two days.
"Open 10,000 more lots, rush the price to 18.20, and then withdraw all unfilled orders, immediately!" Without Zhang Jiaqiang, now all the strategies and commands are carried out by Zhong Shi himself, and at this time, while the long and short sides are still tentative, he immediately issued a trading order.
10,000 hands, corresponding to 10 million barrels of crude oil, after being slightly shocked, Li Mingyang immediately typed the command on the keyboard, showing his good professionalism. On the contrary, Zhong Yi and Liao Xiaohua and others were stunned after hearing Zhong Shi's words, and then Qi Qi looked at Zhong Shi, seeing that the expression on his face was serious, not like he had said the wrong thing, so they reacted one after another, and hurriedly tapped the keyboard.
Soon, there were 3,583 buy orders for $18.18 on the buy list, and then quickly jumped to 4,583 hands, 5,583 hands, and 6,583 hands, and three consecutive 1,000 hands of additional orders immediately stunned market participants. Before they could react, the short position at $18.18 was swept away, and the contract price immediately jumped to $18.20.
Here it shows that Zhong Yi and others are not professional, there are 3,000 hands of large orders thrown at this price, and there is no need for them to throw out buy orders at this price, but they have no relevant experience, which makes other participants in the market shout that they can't understand. Fortunately, Li Mingyang is experienced, after the price jumped to $18.19. Then he threw out a buy order of 1500 lots, and swept the sell order at this price again, and the oil price was then on the predetermined price of 18.20.
Seeing that oil prices have jumped two levels in a row, even if the bulls and bears are sluggish, it is time to react. Immediately after that, a short order of 500 hands was opened, followed by a short order of 1403 hands appeared on the screen, and almost at the same time, another long order of 1479 hands also appeared on the bid order.
The battle is provoked!
"Let's take down all the unfilled orders!" Zhong Shi shook his head helplessly at Zhong Yi and the others, and then said expressionlessly. According to the rules of the transaction "time first, price first". Orders below the current transaction price can only be filled when the price returns to 18.19. There's no point in hanging it anymore.
Andrew and the other three suddenly showed shame on their faces. Liao Xiaohua and Zhongyi are better, Andrew is a real professional, and he has been operating stock index futures for some days, so he is naturally not a rookie. But at this critical time, it is a bit too much to say that the chain is dropped.
Just when the three of them hurriedly pulled down the unfilled order. Zhong Shi walked to Li Mingyang's side. Quietly asked, "How, how is the market reacting?" ”
"It's hard to say, it's estimated that I will have to fight for a while at this juncture. You see. Will the 2047 lots we traded change hands now, or will we wait for the situation to become clearer? Li Mingyang looked at the screen carefully and said thoughtfully.
Just now, it rushed to two prices in an instant, and most of the sell orders in the market were absorbed by Li Mingyang's account, and the other three basically did not absorb much, so Zhong Shi naturally asked Li Mingyang's opinion for the follow-up operation.
"Okay, let's just wait and see!" Zhong Shi thought about it and agreed with Li Mingyang's point of view.
The long and short sides were entangled in the position of 18.20 for a long time, and finally the bears were difficult to defeat the bulls, oil prices began to xiangshang after breaking through 18.20, but every price was met with fierce resistance from the bears, and this resistance finally reached its peak at the position of 18.30, but the market's sentiment has been completely mobilized by the bulls, and many smaller positions of the bears are also closing their positions, and even backhand longs, these closing orders and new long orders have brought great pressure to the bears.
"How? Will the bears be able to resist? Seeing that oil prices were rising one after another, Zhong Shi was a little puzzled, and hurriedly asked the professionals next to him.
Li Mingyang shook his head, he didn't understand it very well, now the number of pending orders on the buying and selling price is about the same, but there are many more orders and lots in terms of transactions, and it is obvious that this is the situation of Xiangshang. After observing for a while, he said with some hesitation: "I still can't see clearly, it depends on the meaning of the bulls' main forces, and when they play." ”
At the time when this market sentiment is mobilized, when the small scattered funds are unanimously bullish, it is a good time for the bulls to leave the market with profits, in this case, whether it is a newly opened long position or a short stop-loss closing order, you can take the long closing order.
"Since the bulls haven't moved yet, let's add some signals to him. Close your positions and close all your positions at 18.30! Zhong Shi thought about it and simply ordered fiercely.
The sell order of 2047 lots immediately appeared on the side of the ask price, followed by 1486 lots immediately traded, showing most of the long flats and long swaps, which is a clear signal that a certain long fund has reached the expected target and is ready to take a profit and leave the market.
The sudden sell order broke the wishful thinking of the other bulls, but fortunately, they reacted extremely quickly, and made a big deal before the market sentiment was reversed, first eating all the long closing orders with nearly 1,000 hands, and then throwing two buy orders totaling more than 4,000 hands in one fell swoop, pushing the oil price to the $18.35 position.
However, the bears also reacted at this price, and the followers who closed when they saw the good also began to close their positions, and the two shili joined forces to press the oil price at the price of $18.37.
"That's all for today!" Zhong Shi saw that the bulls were unable to attack, so he simply stopped operating. (To be continued......)
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