Chapter 20 Treasury Bond Futures Incident
surnamed Guan, and he worked at Wanguo Securities, which made Zhong Shi easily reminded of the extremely sensational "327 Treasury Bond Futures Incident" in later generations.
"327" is the code of the three-year Treasury bond futures issued in 1992 and delivered in June 1995 (F92306) launched by the Exchange, and the margin rate of Treasury bond futures on the Exchange at that time was 2.5%, that is, 40 times leverage. The reason why the exchange sets such a high leverage is precisely because the price of the underlying treasury bonds does not fluctuate very much.
At that time, the par price of this treasury bond was 100 yuan, and the coupon was 9.5%, that is, the holder will get a total of 128.50 yuan in principal and interest after maturity. Originally, the market price of such a treasury bond would depend on the level of the three-year deposit interest rate, but in 93, in order to resist inflation, the Ministry of Finance issued an announcement announcing that this treasury bond will enjoy the same hedging subsidy as the resident savings interest rate.
The hedging subsidy is to add an unfixed interest rate to the level of the fixed deposit interest rate according to the current inflation rate, so as to achieve the purpose of not shrinking wealth. This is equivalent to adding a floating interest rate to a fixed interest rate, and no one knows how this interest rate will be adjusted and to what level.
When the Ministry of Finance issued the announcement, it did not say whether the treasury bond will increase in tandem with the increase in the savings rate, which leaves the market with unlimited reverie, which in turn directly affects the maturity value of the treasury bond.
At that time, the bears and bulls in the market had different views on this, and the bears believed that as inflation fell, the hedging discount rate of this treasury bond would also decline, so the price of the treasury bond in the market would also fall; At the same time, they believe that it is not in line with the state's fiscal policy to pay a higher discount interest on a certain treasury bond, and the issuance quota of new treasury bonds in '95 has also increased by 50 percent over the previous year, and it is even more impossible to subsidize the previously issued treasury bonds with a high discount interest rate when the circulation volume is relatively large. The bulls have the opposite point of view, so the two sides are facing off in the futures market of this treasury bond.
Among the two sides of the confrontation, the bears were the small and medium-sized retail investors represented by the Huaxia First Securities Company and Wanguo Securities at that time, and the arrow figure was Guan Husheng, who was known as the godfather of securities; The bulls were headed by the Huaxia Economic Development Corporation under the Ministry of Finance, uniting some large households in wealthy areas, and the chairman of Huajingkai was a vice minister of the Ministry of Finance at that time.
The two sides fought repeatedly on the 327 treasury bond futures variety, and finally reached the peak on February 23, 95.
On this day, the long-rumored hedging discount rate for 327 government bonds was confirmed and set at 12.98%, which is more than five percentage points higher than the interest rate on government bonds three years ago, which dealt a fatal blow to the bears.
At the beginning of the day, the other main force of the bears backhanded long, in the case of short closing and opening long, the price of 327 treasury bonds rose sharply, and the largest short Wanguo Securities threw a short order of 1.2 million hands at the position of 148.50 yuan, wanting to seal the price in this position, but was easily broken down by the bulls. The price of the treasury bond rose to 151.98 yuan in the intraday, and the desperate bears made a desperate bet in the eight minutes before the close, throwing more than 10 million short orders at the price of 148.00 yuan, and smashed the price of the 327 contract from 151.30 to 147.50 yuan in seven minutes.
10 million contracts, the face value of more than 200 billion yuan, the margin needs 3 billion yuan, short Wanguo Securities has come up with so much cash, it is impossible to investigate, because in the process of the futures price fall, as the largest short, they have made a profit of more than 4 billion according to the closing price, enough to pay the corresponding margin. But it is this that ultimately leaves a handle for the bulls to turn around.
The longs who traded on this day suffered heavy losses, and basically ended up liquidating on the second day. But after all, Huajingkai is an enterprise under the Ministry of Finance, and the government will not allow them to go bankrupt, so in the evening of the same day, the exchange was "instructed" to announce that the trading eight minutes before the close of the day was invalid, and the redemption price of 327 products was determined by the membership agreement, that is, the futures companies with trading seats agreed on the price with each other, and the final price was set at 151.30 yuan. This decision made the earth-shattering reversal of Wanguo Securities come to naught, and Zuihou Wanguo Securities lost 5.6 billion yuan and was forced to declare bankruptcy. The bulls made a profit of more than 7 billion yuan.
This incident shook the entire securities industry in China, and even the executive vice premier Zhuge Guan, who was in charge of the work of the State Council at that time, was also alarmed, and the final result also affected the price level of treasury bond futures in other years, and finally the treasury bond futures market was forced to announce the suspension three months later, and it was not opened again until Zhongshi was reborn.
In the media world, the Financial Times defined this day as the darkest day in ChinaAMC's securities market, and the domestic media compared the incident to the collapse of the Bank of Bahrain, calling it the Huaxia Bank of Bahrain incident.
There are many most controversial aspects of the whole matter, first of all, about the hedging and discounting part, it is said that it was the people of Huajingkai who lobbied in the Ministry of Finance, and finally made the state finance subsidize more than 100 million yuan to the holders of treasury bonds, but because Huajingkai is the largest holder of the long position of the bond futures in the market, this obviously involves insider trading, which has not been confirmed and no one has investigated.
Second, the treasury bond futures trading measures at that time clearly stipulated that short selling was allowed, and there was no limit for short selling, so it was extremely unreasonable to characterize the crazy short selling of short sellers as invalid.
In addition, Zuihou's eight-minute tens of millions of short orders are not necessarily those of Wanguo Securities, so the act of placing the crime of "insufficient margin" and canceling all short orders for Wanguo Securities cannot be established, because as long as there is a short order with sufficient margin, it cannot be canceled. On the other side, the bullish Huajing Kai holds more than 7.5 million long orders, and the margin needs to exceed 2.5 billion yuan, and no one pursues the question of whether the margin is sufficient. You must know that these long orders held by the bulls were owned eight minutes before Zuihou, so if you want to say that the margin is insufficient, you should also pursue the bulls first.
Setting the rules of the game first, and then entering the game as a referee and wantonly breaking the rules, this was the status quo of the Huaxia securities market at that time, and this situation will continue, and even after Zhongshi's rebirth, it has not changed much.
This is also one of the reasons why Zhongshi Weishenme does not attract gold in the domestic market.
Three months after the incident, he was imprisoned and was originally sentenced to death, but under the protection of a certain bigwig, he was finally sentenced to 15 years in prison. Ironically, the charge of manipulation in the futures market was eventually dismissed by the courts, making the exchange's decision somewhat above the law.
Zhong Shi silently rubbed the teacup in his hand, thinking about this "old past", and infinite emotion rose in his heart, on the one hand, the country he loved deeply, and on the other hand, the system that was already unsound and had to be wantonly destroyed, which made him very embarrassed, and he had a sense of helplessness to serve the country.
"What are you thinking?" Zhong Xiaohui saw that Zhong Shi was stunned for a long time and didn't speak, and couldn't help but ask curiously, her clear eyes full of questions.
"I was thinking, maybe I'm going to have to get you a bodyguard. What do you think? Zhong Shi came back to his senses from his contemplation and said to Zhong Xiaohui with some playfulness.
Zhong Xiaohui stopped talking, lowered her head and drank tea in a muffled voice.
Zhong Shi has long had the idea of equipping each family with bodyguards, and under his instruction, Land Rover opened a security company and recruited a group of retired soldiers, although it was just starting, but it was more than enough to deal with the "harassment" on weekdays.
Once the net worth reaches a certain level, it will arouse the covetousness of people with hearts, just like Liao Chengde, even if he is low-key on weekdays, he is also valued by harmony, but he is still targeted by lawbreakers. If it's purely business, then money can be solved, and outlaws like last time need bodyguards to protect them all the time.
Fortunately, Zhong Xiaohui still has more than a year to study in the mainland, and she can go to Hong Kong with her family at that time, which will reduce a lot of pressure on security.
Zhong Xiaohui knew in her heart that what Zhong Shi said was basically a decision, today's Guan Wei is still a bit personable, but it is impossible to guarantee that someone else will pursue her with indiscriminate means, if this is the case, it is estimated that it will be a little dangerous.
Just when the two siblings were relatively speechless, an extremely exaggerated voice suddenly came from behind their desk: "Have you read the recent foreign media, I heard that a man named Soros made 100 million pounds in pounds." ”
"What? 100 million pounds, how many yuan does that have to be! ”
"It's true, then Soros himself came out and said, what to use leverage, what to short the pound, in short, I don't know how to make 100 million, I can't make so much money in my life!"
"You can't make money now, but it doesn't mean that you can't make money in the future, and when you Wanguo becomes the world's top brokerage, you can also wrestle with these people!"
Then there was the laughter of the two of them.
"What pounds, what are they talking about?" Zhong Xiaohui had the intention to break the silence and asked deliberately. She wasn't very interested in finance at first, but she knew that her brother had some talent in finance, and maybe he might know something.
It's just that she couldn't have imagined that this younger brother of hers was also a big winner in the pound crisis, and could even be called the initiator to some extent.
"It's nothing, it's just that the pound depreciates inexplicably, and in the process, you just borrow the pound to sell, and then buy the low-priced pound to pay it back when the pound depreciates, and make a profit from it." Zhong Shi replied nonchalantly. In his heart, he lamented the huge inertia of history, and the news of Soros's shorting of the pound finally leaked out. (Everyone's support is the author's motivation, and the author's refueling code word is the greatest thank you to everyone)