Hundreds of billions of dollars, this is just a year's operating income of one of Japan's top conglomerates, and it is nothing to the United States, whose GDP is several times that of Japan, but the account is not calculated like this, and the first thing to leverage is the bond market in the United States and even Europe, which greatly increases the cost of financing for local enterprises in the United States through the bond market; The second is to shake the foundation of the U.S. Treasury's revenue sources, so that they have to think twice when issuing new debt; The most important thing is to make Americans realize that Japan is not their backyard for giving and demanding.

When such a report was delivered to the Prime Minister's desk, Prime Minister Hosokawa only glanced at it and lightly instructed his subordinates: "This matter is not easy to do in the name of the government, so let those brokerages and banks handle it, and the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance will assist!" ”

Soon this semi-official jihua was sent to various financial institutions in Japan, and preparations were set in motion to make the Bank of Japan less and less intervening in the current situation of a high yen, all so that yen capital could enter the US market in a larger amount.

……

After two days of operation, Zhong Shi found that the yield in the bond futures market still did not change much, which in addition to the strength of the long capital, there are also reasons for the weakening of the market's expectations for the future, which is partly due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike to dispel inflation expectations, and the other is that a large number of consortiums holding long-term U.S. Treasury bonds cannot let Treasury yields rise.

Imagine a large financial institution that holds a billion-dollar long-term Treasury bond with a target amount of more than a billion dollars. If there is a rise in yields in the futures market, it means that the price of the bonds in their hands will fall, and when they change hands, they may only be able to sell a billion dollars or less, which is a big problem.

Due to the extraordinary prosperity of Dechong Securities in the 80s, the major commercial banks and investment banks on Wall Street have invariably increased the business of the fixed income department. The so-called fixed income is a discount rate that is set before the bond is issued, and the change in the market's expectation of the yield of the bond makes the real-time price of these bonds fluctuate, so there is room for trading.

There was once a joke that a well-dressed young man with a phone on the subway was full of "billion", "I buy" and "I sell", which was not whether they were bragging or nerves. Instead, they are buying and selling bonds over the phone.

"It took two days to get the yield up to one basis point. This momentum is not good! Tens of millions of dollars of money went down, but there was still no wave, and Zhong Shi couldn't help but be a little anxious.

In two days, about 20,000 short positions were established, and more than 50 million US dollars were spent. However, the 10-year and 30-year Treasury bonds are still little changed from the pre-entry prices. Not much has changed here means that there has really not changed much. It is a maximum of thirty-two points of change.

After thinking about it for a long time and not having a clue, Zhong Shi simply stopped observing, but picked up the "Wall Street Journal" on the table and read it. This newspaper is basically a must-read for people in the financial industry, and in addition to the Wall Street Journal, there are also influential newspapers such as the New York Times and the Financial Times.

"The Bank of Japan announced today that it will reduce its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds at an appropriate time, and the exact timing and amount of the reduction have not been announced. Market analysis, this is a reaction to the US interest rate hike. At the same time, some sources advertise that the Japanese side wants to reduce the adverse impact of the recent appreciation of the yen by reducing its holdings of US dollar assets......"

"Nomura Securities recently released an analysis report on the Fed's sudden interest rate hike, the report pointed out that according to historical practice, the United States has entered a cycle of interest rate hikes, although the phenomenon of inflation has not yet been shown, but Greenspan and his colleagues obviously believe that it is time to raise interest rates, and recommend reducing long-term Treasury bonds......

"Bank of Tokyo's stock rose 4.5% as a result of the Bank of Tokyo's announcement that Jihua will open branches in 26 cities across the United States over the next three years......"

"There has been an unusual move in the European bond market, with long-term government bond yields rising against the market despite interest rate cuts announced by central banks in France, the United Kingdom, and Germany. Some analysts pointed out that brokers are making margin calls to customers in their seats, mainly US customers......"

……

"The mountain rain is coming, and the wind is full of buildings!" After reading these news, Zhong Shi finally figured out what was going on, first the US-Japan negotiations were broken, then the United States announced the implementation of the "Super 301" trade terms against Japan, and then the Japanese consortium was all looking down on the bond market.

He also completely understood that this year, the international bond market collapsed when it said it collapsed, and the reason is this!

"The U.S. interest rate hike and the yen's appreciation are both once-in-a-lifetime opportunities, and together they constitute a prerequisite for a financial war." Zhong Shi muttered to himself, "It turns out that it is not only the crisis caused by hedge funds, but there is also a shili behind it, and it is Japan that has raised the power of the whole country." I don't know if this is a move by the Japanese government or the actions of the consortium itself, but no matter what, there must be guidance from a master behind it. ”

Zhong Shi's voice was so low that even Louis, who was sitting next to him, didn't hear it clearly, the protagonists of this kind of financial war are the two countries with the strongest economy, and any financial institutions such as commercial banks and hedge funds are just pawns in it. Unlike Japan, financial institutions in the United States do not necessarily listen to the government and the Federal Reserve, and they may take advantage of it.

"Aren't they worried that this bond market collapse will hit the local market?" Zhong Shi thought, and suddenly a thought jumped into his mind, this situation of rising yields in the global bond market will inevitably affect the Japanese bond market as well, "Luis, do you have any information on the Japanese market in recent months?" ”

"This ...... I'm afraid this will have to be faxed from Hong Kong, after all, we are studying the US bond market here, and it is inevitable that there will be omissions in the study of economic fundamentals......" Louis said with a look of difficulty on his face. He watched Zhong Shi staring at such an ordinary newspaper for a long time, his face changed, and he knew that he must have seen something, but Zhong Shi suddenly asked about the economic data of Japan, Rao was he thought for a long time, and he didn't expect Zhong Shi's first sentence to ask Japan.

"Well, tell the people in Hong Kong to quickly transmit all the economic data from Japan in the past few months, quickly!" Zhong Shi frowned, and then asked Louis to inform the people in Hong Kong.

Just as the two were talking, there was a sudden commotion from the trading hall: "There is a large sales order, this ...... That's a lot of lots! "It's falling, it's falling, the price of 10-year Treasury bonds is down 0.1% points!" "It's up, YTM (yield to maturity) has moved, it's increased by one basis point."

"What's going on?" Zhong Shi was taken aback, looking at the shouting traders with some confusion, and the screams of rising and falling made him a little confused for a while, and only after a while did he react: a large number of sell orders entered the bond futures market, which actually suppressed the price of the current 10-year treasury bond futures.

Zhong Shi hurriedly walked to the nearest computer, approached the small screen, and saw that 34,510 buy orders had been piled up at the price of 104-26, which suppressed the price of 10-year treasury bonds to the price of 104-26 in a few minutes.

"How did so many lots appear, did they come out all of a sudden, or did they ......" Zhong Shi hurriedly asked, such a large number of hands is obviously a powerful big organization.

"It's not!" The trader who operated the computer quickly replied: "I have been paying attention to the number of lots on this sell order, these 30,000 sell orders appear one after another, and three buy orders of about 10,000 hands basically appear within half a minute, and all the buy orders and empty swaps on it are swept away at once." ”

"Is it possible that this is the rhythm of long unwinding?" Zhong Shi thought about it and asked for another possibility.

"It shouldn't be possible." The trader replied without thinking about it: "Such a large-scale liquidation will definitely be caught by the bears, and in the end it is still a question of whether the bulls can leave the market!" "These traders still have a bit of a say in this kind of simple trading problem.

Zhong Shi's face turned red, but he quickly turned his head, pretending not to hear what the trader said, and after a pause, he turned his face and continued, "Now we have the Confederates. In this case, let's follow them and see what the bulls do next. ”

Louis nodded and ordered loudly: "Everyone is ready, let's continue to open new positions, and several other contracts will also increase positions......"

Each treasury bond futures contract has a certain maturity, but the underlying treasury bond varieties are all ten-year, and there are several main contracts, and the weighted yield formed by this is regarded as the long-term interest rate.

At present, the February contract made by Tianyu Fund is one of the main contracts, but in order to prevent the main fund transfer contract, or enter the market too late to open a position, etc., the contract of other months also has different positions.

With the joining of Tianyu Fund, the bears are even more powerful, and under the joint efforts of the two big bears, the price of the 10-year Treasury bond futures was finally fixed at the price of 104-22 on this day, and the yield has also increased by 1 basis point.

"I just don't know if the bulls will counterattack tomorrow?" Louis smiled at the end of the trade, and it was no wonder he was so happy that he made close to a million dollars in profit on this day's trade.

When he turned around to look for Zhong Shi, he found that he was looking at a pile of documents next to the fax machine in a daze, Louis hurried two steps to Zhong Shi's side, and heard Zhong Shi sigh in a low voice: "I see, little Japan is really scheming!" (To be continued......)

PS: The collapse of the 94 bond market is written to me like this, Khan~