It should be noted that when the shijie economy is recovering strongly, almost all investors can predict that the price of raw materials for construction will follow the rise, and in this case, weishenme bears will enter the market? This brings us to their operational strategy.

As we all know, copper is widely used in all aspects of economic life, and the pricing power of this metal material is in the hands of the LME, both traders and producers use the LME daily published prices as a reference, so hedging in the LME has become inevitable.

Super large companies such as Sumitomo Corporation and Chilean Copper, which produce tens or hundreds of tons of electrolytic copper every year, have set up non-ferrous metal trading departments in the LME, and these nominally hedging trading departments naturally hope that the higher the price per ton of copper, the better. Inevitably, importers with high demand for copper want the price to be as low as possible.

However, this situation is not absolute, for example, if an importer who needs copper raw materials earns more from the short position they have established in the copper futures market than the profit from the corresponding production and sales, then they are very likely to give up delivery. Exporters may also choose not to trade or reduce their current copper trade if the gains from going long outweigh the gains from the current copper trade.

Of course, these are just a few cases. For large copper groups, the operation of the futures market is only a supplement to their physical operations, and the main force of the bulls is still to hold a huge number of long positions, while the shorts are still short. This is why even in the case of rising copper prices, the market still has a steady stream of short orders.

The current situation is that certain bullish designs that are not aimed at spot copper delivery will pull up the price of copper futures in the short term. On the one hand, because their positions are huge and it is not easy to clear them all for a while, and on the other hand, they are worried that the bears will force their positions and force the bulls to finally deliver the spot copper. You must know that many of the bulls who are active in the market are speculative funds, and they are not involved in the trade of spot copper at all, let alone delivered.

Therefore, the bulls in the market during the manufacturing period of copper prices fluctuated sharply, attracting followers to take over, using this way to escape themselves, but also let the bears attempt to deliver Jihua in vain.

Their strategy is naturally seen by those who have a heart. Some on the bearish side saw this. Gradually lowering the price of copper futures, while reducing the trading volume, the fluctuation range of copper futures prices has narrowed, especially on October 31, the price of copper futures has hardly changed. The intraday price fell to $2,637 at one point. This is clearly unacceptable to the bulls.

"I bet you. On the next trading day, the price of copper futures will definitely rise! After the day was over, Bell Stone said to Andrew.

Andrew looked incredulous. But when he saw Zhong Shi's face full of confidence, he couldn't help but feel a little weak, he took out a hundred yuan dollar from his arms, slapped it in front of Zhong Shi with a bang, and said: "I bet 100 dollars with you, and the market will not rise tomorrow!" ”

Seeing Andrew take out the cash, the other traders also coaxed, and the four of them took out a little cash from their arms, including pounds, dollars, and even a 1,000 yuan Hong Kong dollar.

Zhong Shi looked at the colorful banknotes on the table, and also took out his wallet from his arms, took out two banknotes with a face value of 50 pounds from it, gently put them on the table, and said with a smile: "We have now set up a pool of funds, and the bet is on the trend of tomorrow's copper market." Personally, I'm bullish on the upside, the bet is £100, and you are free to bet! Then he took out two more pounds, put them aside, and said a little jokingly: "In addition, there is a handicap here, that is, betting that tomorrow's copper futures market will not rise or fall, and the odds are one to one hundred, how about it?" ”

When everyone heard him say this, they all hahadaxiao, they have been in the copper futures market for so long, and they have never experienced the situation that the price of copper futures does not change, just when they were about to bet, Ampet suddenly said: "Wait, we must be sure of one thing, that is, we can't enter the market tomorrow, otherwise Mr. Zhong will push the market to a situation that is favorable to him, then wouldn't the others lose?" ”

Others think that this is exactly the truth. Andrew quickly pulled his money back from the table and said, "I still don't bet!" ”

Zhong Shi shook his head and said disapprerovitically: "At present, our position is almost the same, in addition to the options market, there are 5,000 long options, and 15,000 contracts of copper futures in November and December. We're going to take a day off tomorrow and focus on the rest of the market, what do you think? ”

Hearing that they could take a day off, several traders were very excited, and even the gambling that had just been extinguished rose again. Andrew said sternly: "Now that the externalities are gone, we can continue to bet now, and I personally bet that tomorrow's copper market will fall, referring to today's closing price, which is $100." ”

"I'm betting on the rise!"

"I'm betting on the fall!"

……

Not long after, the bets between the two sides ended, the bullish side had a total of one hundred pounds, all of which were Zhong Shi's own funds, and the bearish side was all the traders, including Andrew, with all kinds of banknotes, Zhong Shi roughly estimated, about 500 pounds, and he couldn't help but count out eight more pounds, making up 500.

"Although this little bit of lottery is not much, but the winner can't be alone, you must use this money to entertain, and then go to PUB for a pastime, what do you think?" Andrew's eyes rolled for a moment, and then he said with a wicked smile on his face.

Zhong Shi shook his head helplessly, and then left the office.

……

On Tuesday, November 1, as soon as the copper futures market opened, the price jumped sharply, and despite the bears' preparations, the copper price rose fiercely. But what makes people feel very strange is that despite the fierce momentum of copper futures prices, the trading volume is not large, and when the maturity copper price rises to $2,700, the trading volume is significantly enlarged. After a battle between the bulls and bears here, when it finally closed, the price of copper futures barely stood above $2,700. It ended up at $2,708.

For this situation, Zhong Shi has long been mentally prepared, he has expected that the bulls will play the trick of changing the left hand for the right hand in the case of unfavorable liquidation, but he has already said it in advance and has to miss this small market. As for the gambling game, of course, he won, but the total gambling money of 1,000 pounds still found a high-end restaurant for a few traders with special appetites, and even the after-dinner entertainment made Zhong Shi take out a lot of cash.

……

"The bulls are too simple." In Carl & Paul's temporary office at Asset Management, traders are huddled together. There was a heated discussion about the market that had just ended. Jerry said dismissively.

"Not bad! This kind of money-losing operation can only deceive small investors, and if you want to deceive experts like us, you can't do it. "Traders hahadaxiao, all of whom are unimpressed by the rally that is happening in the market today.

"It's not funny!" Karl spoke up just in time. Stopped the ridicule of the traders. "Today at the $2700 position. There has been a noticeable increase in trading volume, which should not be the result of manipulation by the bulls on the one hand. My personal opinion is that the bears close part of their positions here and the bulls. The bulls also dumped some of their positions to follow the trend. This long position should be reduced a lot, and if the estimate is good, they will open it one after another in the coming days. ”

"Out of the clear? How is this possible? Not only Jerry, but even the other traders were stunned, they never expected that although they had seen through the intention of the bulls, they did not expect that there would be so many twists and turns in between.

"It's quite possible!" Karl's eyes were like electricity, sweeping over the traders with puzzled faces, and then he analyzed seriously: "In order to raise today's price, the bulls must have opened a lot of long contracts in November and December, and the price is not low. The reason why the bears agreed to close their positions at a high level is to force the bulls to transfer their positions to the far moon and continue to fight with them. Moreover, the bears only threw out part of the position to close the position, after all, they can't eat much after the trend, they want to tell the bulls in this way that if they want to leave the market, they must make concessions in terms of price, and continue to operate on the far month contract. ”

Hearing Karl's explanation, the traders suddenly realized that this kind of complex language may only be understood by the two sides of the fight.

"But in this case, the longs switch to the more liquid month contracts, won't the shorts be able to catch them?" After listening to Karl's analysis, most traders understood, but Jerry was even more confused, and he immediately thought of a follow-up possibility.

"You're right!" Karl gave Jerry a thumbs up and explained: "The bears forced the bulls to take their positions and then let them go, and they also took the opportunity to open short positions at a high level, and when the bulls were over, they would quickly suppress the copper price, and then their short positions would make huge profits." ”

Then, Karl turned to Jerry and said: "This is the same as your previous analysis, but the difference is that this time it is not the price fluctuations caused by the liquidation of the bulls, but the bears have taken the initiative and used the liquidation to force the bulls to take over the high-priced contracts in the far month." ”

"What will the bulls do? Just waiting to be caught? Not only Jerry, but also other traders have this doubt.

"Pull up again, use the liquidity of the market to clear the position, and leave these long positions to those who are bullish, there are many fools in the market!" Karl smiled, "What they're doing now is what they need to do sometime in the future, just repeating it once." These bears are so shrewd that they only sell their true intentions today, and they have taken over all the short options in the options market. What we can do now is try to be able to open some high short positions in the market in the next few trading days. Let's discuss it. ”

Carl's tone was full of helplessness, he has always thought of himself as a shrewd fund manager, but judging from the intentions of today's long and short traders, he and his fund are just an inconspicuous small role in the market, not to mention affecting the trend of the entire market, and they are not even qualified to play with others! (To be continued......)

PS: I feel that the enthusiasm has been up for a while and it is starting to fall again...... The collection has increased and decreased...... No more nonsense, continue to refuel the code word, I hope you will continue to support, xiexie~