Chapter 174: The First Most Empty Forcing in History (5)
Although Soros was in the dust, he knew that the Frankfurt Stock Exchange would not let this matter go, but took a reassuring pill.
The Porsche family is playing too big this time around, and the exchange can't sit idly by.
……
On Monday, when the opening gong sounded, the Volkswagen Group's stock price soared like a balloon. Within half an hour, it had risen from 160 euros to 220 euros, an increase of 37.5%.
The rise in Volkswagen Group's share price was expected by all, but the speed of such a wild rise was unexpected by many, because not everyone knew the total short share of Volkswagen shares. Therefore, in the process, a small number of Volkswagen Group shares gradually began to be sold.
Even so, the volume of the market was still very dismal, with only a few hundred thousand shares appearing on the buying side within half an hour.
"It's not good, we can't buy enough chips!"
James. Whitehead frowned, looking at the numbers jumping on the screen, his heart was heavy, "It's not just us, other institutions believe they feel the same way." The amount of money sold in the market is simply too small. Those who hold shares in the Volkswagen Group do not seem to be very happy with the current price. ”
"Damn, these greedy guys spit out all their profits, and they made a lot of profits, and they are still not satisfied?" Allan. Howard was furious, but after losing his temper, he couldn't do anything about it.
Based on an analysis of previous volumes as well as price levels, Blevin. Howard's analysts gave a price range for the possibility of closing positions: 250 euros to 380 euros. Strictly speaking, this interval seems absurd and imprecise. But analysts who are well-versed in psychology, behavior, and statistics have taken Alan Brown in just one sentence. Howard dismissed it, "the actual number is probably much higher than what we've calculated."
As a professional fund manager. Allan. Howard understands his situation. If he is on the bullish side, he will maximize the profit in the current situation, but unfortunately he is the short side and needs to close the position. The only good news is that many of the bulls are lay professionals, and the hope lies for investors who give up the big ones after giving a little sweetness.
In fact, most of the hedge fund managers who need to close their positions think so. This is also why half an hour of trading time has passed after the opening of the market. The reason why the Volkswagen Group's share price rose by only a measly 37.5%.
Of course, to others who don't know the inside story, this rally has gone crazy.
"Raise the price, all sell orders under 250 euros are swept away!"
This kind of unintentional "price alliance" is undoubtedly unreliable, because everyone needs to close the position, and a short period of lowering the price will not play any role at all for the main force of the bulls, and the other party is likely to be professionals. So after a quick gauge of the situation, Allen. Howard commanded decisively.
"Good!"
James. Without the slightest hesitation, Whitehead agreed, and then joined the other traders. Quickly pay for the computer and "Huh? The price has risen to 240 euros! As he spoke, he jerked down the confirmation button in his hand, "Someone is moving faster than us!" ”
"It's still there!"
Allan. Howard closed his eyes and looked deeply tired, "It's still there!" He muttered again.
It is clear that the main force of the bulls is firmly seated in the Diaoyutai and is simply indifferent to the current rally. In this case. As soon as someone on the bears' side can't hold back, the entire "price union" will immediately fall apart. Allan. Howard originally wanted to be the first man. But it was preempted.
The situation in the market has changed dramatically.
The Volkswagen Group's shares, which were originally at 220 euros, suddenly appeared with a large number of buy orders, first raising the price to 240 euros and then jumping to 250 euros, a dizzying change in just one minute. But in the eyes of connoisseurs, it has been interpreted with different meanings, and the bears can't hold it back.
Volume is starting to come alive. Some investors began to try to sell their shares in the Volkswagen Group, but they soon gave up on the idea as the Volkswagen Group's share price rose wildly again.
€260, €270, €280...... It jumped until 300 euros before it stopped.
"What happened?"
"What the hell is going on?"
The person who sold it before beat his chest and regretted it. Investors who did not sell could not stop panting, and their hearts were full of fear. They also know what is causing this. But the stock price has far exceeded their expectations.
The price of €300 is significant, as it means that the short hedge fund loses half of its position in the Volkswagen Group. If a hedge fund shorted 100 million euros of Volkswagen Group shares, based on the average price of 200 euros sold some time ago, they would now have to buy back the same number of shares for 150 million euros.
The reason why it is important is also because this figure is the minimum percentage that most brokers maintain their positions, because the leverage of the average broker is maintained at 2, and when this limit is broken, the loss is likely to spread to the broker itself. So at this time, the broker either notifies to make up the margin, or forces the position to close out.
Naturally, the reluctant side of the seller is also very clear that this price is the psychological position of the short position. Basically, when it reaches this price, it means that the bears have surrendered. At the same time, a return of 50% or even higher is already an acceptable profit for them.
The trading volume began to amplify, and several sell orders of millions of shares appeared in the market one after another, and the camp of the bulls began to waver.
The Volkswagen Group's share price began to hover around 300 euros for a while, and the buyer completely admitted defeat, and the other seller weighed the gains and felt satisfied, and the two sides began to trade in a medium-sized manner, and it seemed that the market turmoil was coming to an end.
However, none of them realized the danger of the human heart in this world.
Less than five minutes into the "orderly" trading between the two sides, the market moved sharply again. A single buy order worth up to 1.5 billion euros appeared on the market, almost at lightning speed, sweeping away the sell order in the market, and immediately pushing the stake of the Volkswagen Group up to 320 euros.
"This ...... How is this possible? ”
Alan who has been keeping a close eye on the plate. Howard's jaw dropped in surprise, the corners of his mouth twitched twice, and he cursed almost hysterically, "Who the hell is this?" What the fuck is this guy trying to do? ”
Just a minute. The volume of the entire market reached around 8 million shares, which means that the short bought 4 million sell orders in the market for an astronomical amount of more than 1.2 billion euros. On top of that, the rest of the money swept away the sell orders below 320 euros.
"Boss, the broker called, urging us to pay the deposit!"
Right here at Allen. Howard was furious when James. Whitehead handed over a microphone with an extremely ugly look on his face, "They say that if we don't pay the deposit in time. They liquidate our position. ”
"Liquidation? Let's liquidate! ”
Allan. Howard is now about to lose his mind, so he naturally can't stand the slightest threat, "Tell them that if they are willing to be liquidated, then let them be evened." After a few breaths, he added, "If they don't close the position, we will bear all the losses." Let them see what they do! ”
The current situation is also difficult for brokers. If they force the position to close, they will basically suffer a loss. Although this part of the loss can be recovered in the future through legal proceedings. But once you get into a lawsuit, it will take a long time, and not all brokers can afford it. Allan. Howard seized on the broker and threatened the broker in turn. He knew that his position was too heavy to hold the broker hostage.
Sure enough. Two minutes later, James. Whitehead hung up the phone and nodded slightly at him, signaling that the security deposit matter was settled.
It's just that by this time, the Volkswagen Group's price has risen by 350 euros, which means that the loss has further expanded.
Just in James. Whitehead called in between these minutes. Because the bad effects of the big orders sweeping out the market have already begun to ferment, because it points to a fact that the bulls may ignore: the size of the bears is far greater than they think.
With this discovery, basically the bulls began to reluctantly sell again, and the sell orders in the market were only about tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of shares, which was nothing to those predators, which made them re-estimate the size of the short sellers.
Although there is no volume of large orders, the current increase has exceeded 100%, and for some investors who still don't know the situation, this profit margin is enough to satisfy them, and the small sales in the market are partly from their hands, and the other part is from the main force of the bulls.
The price is still rising, and the bulls are still testing the bottom line of the bears. And many bears are forced to buy what is sold in the market while their hearts are dripping blood, because they know very well that if they do not buy at this time, the price will be higher the next moment.
In this way, the price was pushed up to the 400 euro level in the pain and helplessness of the bears.
Compared to 300 euros, 400 euros means that the shorts are completely lost, and all positions are lost. At this time, there are two options for the bulls, the first is to take the opportunity to ship and completely win the funds of the shorts. On the other hand, they continue to wait and see, hoping to sell at a higher price, but the potential risk is that the bears will not be able to continue to pay or may even play out completely, and it may take some time to get it at that time. More extremely, if the opponent goes bankrupt, this time is even more far away.
After all, cash is king, and pocketing is the safest strategy.
The trading volume of the market began to expand rapidly, and the willingness to sell increased significantly, and in just half an hour, there were more than 600,000 shares of Volkswagen Group in the market, of which several sell orders exceeded 500,000 shares.
"Hurry up and buy it, as long as you can buy it, the price is not a problem!"
In the face of the sudden release of liquidity from the bulls, the market was somewhat unprepared, and there was a situation where prices fell for a while. But for Blevin. For Howard Asset Management, the liquidity they have been waiting for has left them with no choice. Howard even said "regardless of the price", and then he added, "Put some buy orders at a high price, and if that mysterious buyer shows up again, we can at least grab some of it." ”
He was a little frightened by the unexpected situation just now, although at present, Bleven. Howard's short-selling position in the Volkswagen Group was wiped out, but Allen. Howard has decided to accept this situation, just to be able to close the position as soon as possible and not to expand the losses.
Blavin. The Howard Company had the capital to absorb these losses, but for other hedge funds, the losses, while unlikely to bring them real disaster, were enough to break their bones.
But in addition to these two kinds of people, there is a third type of people, who are both helpless against the current long and short positions, and are unwilling to close their positions at such a high price, and Soros is one of them.
To reduce as much as possible, Soros thought viciously. (To be continued......)
PS: PS: Tell me about the condition of the arm. On the afternoon of the 2nd, I went outside to participate in an experience activity, and because I was so excited, I fell on my head. I fell because I was holding something in my right hand and running fast. The right elbow joint hit the concrete floor, and the left palm was propped up on the ground when he subconsciously made a protective movement (turning around and hoping to land his back on the ground), and the left hand was not serious. I went to the hospital to see my right elbow, and the doctor said that the bone was fine, it was just a sprain, and it would be fine to recuperate for a while. When I came back, it was a hot and cold compress, and my arm was still only semi-fixed, and it was painful to deviate from the angle a little. Now the left palm is basically swollen, you can type, first to everyone, the right arm may need a period of recuperation. I'm really sorry. Everyone must pay attention to protect themselves and put safety first when participating in activities. Don't get carried away like me and be happy and sad.