"What about U.S. debt?"

The first thing Zhong Shi did when he returned to Hong Kong was to ask about long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, and before he left for Germany, economists and researchers at Tianyu Fund had already focused on the long-term government bond market.

In fact, in the current chaotic market, the safest way to invest is naturally the treasury bond market. Because the business environment and repayment ability of enterprises have been widely questioned, the corporate bond market has also begun to fluctuate violently, which makes the corporate bond market no longer a safe haven.

At such times, only national credit is the most trustworthy.

Among many countries, countries such as the United States, Germany, and Japan are undoubtedly the first level of credit, and other industrial powers are considered the second level. Due to the influence of monetary and economic policies, the BRIC countries in emerging markets, including China, are far less convincing in terms of trust than the United States.

"The one-year benchmark interest rate in the United States has fallen to 1.5%, and a rescue plan totaling up to $850 billion has been announced." "In addition to these, the United States has also raised the cap on deposit insurance to $250,000 to support commercial banks, and has also implemented tax cuts to stimulate the economy, which the market has responded well." As a result, the short-term U.S. Treasury market has seen prices fall and yields rise. But when it comes to long-term Treasuries, yields are nowhere near what the market expects. ”

"What is the market's expectation? The reason? Zhong Shi frowned, and then asked.

"Even in the midst of the Fed's financial explosion, the yield on the entire 10-year Treasury bond will not fall below 5%, and the consensus expectation is 7%. So in general, when yields don't meet expectations, our strategy is to short the bond and wait until the yield rises before closing the position. Earn the difference. ”

"These are all from senior economists and bond analysts, who have taken into account the influx of safe-haven funds and concluded that the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond should be between 4.9% and 5.5%, and now the market yield is only 4%, which is far lower than we expected." There's a lot of room to maneuver. ”

"There's a lot of room to maneuver?"

Zhong Shi tilted his head and thought for a long time, then asked suspiciously: "Presumably, before this matter was reported to me, you were already strategically prepared, and even the funds and leverage were ready, right?" ”

Jiang Shan, who was broken by Zhong Shi, smiled shyly, and said embarrassedly: "The opportunity is rare, we have indeed made enough preparations. In addition to using the funds from my own department, I also requested an additional $3 billion from the Risk Control Department, for a total of $6 billion. In terms of leverage, we also talked to the brokerage channel, and they offer twice the leverage. If you can agree, we are ready to open a short position with a size of more than $15 billion. ”

"$15 billion is a big deal!"

Zhong Shi tapped on the coffee table and muttered for a long time, "Let's put this matter on hold for the time being, although the scale is not very large, but I am not very optimistic about the prospects of this transaction, and I need to continue to observe and observe!" ”

"Why?"

One benefit of flat management is: Any staff member has the opportunity to communicate with the senior management and put forward their opinions and suggestions at any time. It is also possible to ask for explanations from the top for certain acts. Tianyu Fund is this kind of management model, so even if Zhong Shi rejects the deal, Jiang Shan still has to ask for a reason that can convince him.

"While your analysis is reasonable, you may be overlooking the determination of the U.S. government to bail out the market. So far, although various moves have shown that the US government is very determined to save the market. However, it is unclear whether the new president will have reservations about the measures of his predecessor after taking office. And then there's the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis on the European side, which will have a direct impact on the size of global safe-haven money, which you don't have data to back it up. Other than that. In terms of foreign exchange, whether the new government will fight a currency war with other major trading countries is something you have not considered. In this case, it would be too risky to rush into a bond position of up to $10 billion, and I don't think it's worth the risk. ”

"And when do you think the right time is right?" Jiang Shan was still unwilling, and continued to ask, "If everything develops according to our expectations, then we have missed a great opportunity." ”

"There's always an opportunity, and we're up nearly 10% this year, which is 45% more than the 35% drop in the S&P. In terms of our size, even in a good year, this is definitely a remarkable achievement. As for when, it depends on what kind of signal the black president will release after he comes to power! ”

"Well, although your reasons are not completely convincing to me, I have to admit that politically you do see farther and more deeply than I do......"

Jiang Shan only felt a moment of frustration, although he was still a little unconvinced, he also admitted that what Zhong Shi said was enough to convince most of the members of the U.S. bond group of Tianyu Fund.

"Boss, your appointment is time!"

Just as Zhong Shi was about to open his mouth to comfort Jiang Shan, a staff member walked into the room and said to Zhong Shi in a deep voice, "Bernard. Bernard Murphy, chairman of Madoff Investments. Madoff was already waiting in the conference room. ”

"Okay, I'll be right there!"

Zhong Shi casually dismissed the staff member, and then asked, "Jiangshan, you have been in the United States for so long, do you know what kind of character this Madoff is?" ”

"This guy is a legend!"

As soon as Madoff was mentioned, Jiang Shan, who was still depressed, immediately became full of energy and said, "This guy is the most famous financial broker in the history of the United States." In addition to the company just mentioned, he also served as the chairman of the NASDAQ, and is definitely a well-known big name in the American financial industry. The most commendable thing is that this guy is a top investment master. His investment company can give investors a stable return of 8% to 12% every year! Yes, you heard it right, it's a steady return, and this steady return has been more than 20 years. Some people say that he is better than Buffett, you must know that Buffett has also had a losing year. But this guy didn't lose a single loss, it's a miracle. ”

"How is it possible that there is no loss?" Zhong Shi was very curious in his heart, and couldn't help but have a strong curiosity.

"Yes, there has never been a loss!" Jiang Shan said firmly, and almost swore to the sky. He once boasted that he made money in a rising market, and he made money when it fell, and only the lack of volatility in the market made him unable to do anything. At that time, many people thought that he was boasting, but the facts completely shattered their superficial understanding. This guy is making money, every year, God, it's unimaginable, but it's real! ”

looked at Jiangshan's exaggerated expression. Zhong Shi subconsciously frowned, "Let's go, go and see who this is a saint and how he can become a winning general in the market, I really can't wait." ”

Bernard. Madoff, now 70 years old, has a standard semicircle of hair on his forehead, and only a few hairs are still within this semicircle. It looks a little weird, but these gray hairs are well groomed. Meticulously combed backwards. People over seventy years old have inevitably ravines on their faces, but the well-maintained Madoff is still full of red faces, and he can't tell that he is getting old. The hooked nose, the still dark eyebrows, the pursed lips, and a pair of shrewd eyes that constantly glance around, all show that there is something extraordinary about ordinary people.

"Hello, Mr. Madoff. I'm Zhongshi! ”

Out of courtesy, Zhong Shi stretched out his hands as soon as he came in, and greeted with a smile on his face, "I've admired the name for a long time." Welcome to Hong Kong and hope you have a pleasant trip. ”

"This is really disappointing!"

Madoff looked the bell stone up and down carefully. Suddenly, when Zhong Shi, Jiang Shan and others were stunned, Madoff went on to explain, "I see that Mr. Zhong is so young and promising, and then I see that I am already dying, this contrast is really disappointing!" ”

"Mr. Madoff has such a good sense of humor!" Zhong Shi smiled, "I don't know if Mr. Madoff has heard of such a saying in Huaxia, Lao Ji Fu has ambitions for thousands of miles, which means that even older people, as long as they have ambitions, they can make an earth-shattering career." ”

"But my lifelong career is too insignificant compared to Mr. Zhong!" Madoff waved his hand and said modestly.

"All great, all amazing!" Jiang Shan complimented on the side, and at the same time put an end to the meaningless praise of the two, "Mr. Madoff, shall we sit down and talk about it first?" ”

After the two sides were seated, Zhong Shi first asked, "Mr. Madoff, I don't know if you came to Hong Kong for business or vacation?" ”

"Both!" Madoff wiped his hair and said in a chic manner, "I was originally on vacation, but I had a few customers in Hong Kong, so I paid a visit by the way." As you know, HSBC is a big customer of mine, so since you came to Hong Kong, how can you not visit them? Since I visited HSBC and several other customers, I would like to visit all the financial celebrities in Hong Kong by the way. You know, it's always nice to make new friends, especially for an old man like me. ”

"I didn't expect me to be able to enter your eyes, that's really an honor!" Zhong Shi replied with a smile, but he was very disapprehensive in his heart, how could you come to visit if you were fine, you must know that there is nothing to do without going to the Three Treasures Palace.

"In addition, there is another thing that I personally think is more important, which is that my company is going to set up a new fund, so I will promote it to my clients when I am on vacation."

Sure enough, just when Zhong Shi was still thinking about the other party's intentions, Madoff had already taken the initiative to say, "The initial scale is about 5 billion US dollars, and 2 billion US dollars have been raised so far, including many hedge funds and large commercial banks." Out of trust in our stable returns, many of our existing clients have also invested more. However, when I saw the posture of the Tianyu Fund, I felt that this visit might be a bit abrupt. ”

Seeing Zhong Shi's indifferent face, Madoff said with a smile, his expression quite unnatural.

"In general, what is the return on investment?" Zhong Shi tapped on the arm of the chair, muttered for a long time, and suddenly asked.

Madoff was overjoyed, he knew that the other party was moved, and said without hesitation: "8%, this is the lowest annualized return I can promise you." After thinking about it for a while, he added, "Of course, based on our strategy, you shouldn't expect the return to be too high, after all, our strategy is different from that of hedge funds." Our biggest feature is stable returns! ”

"Stable?"

Zhong Shi chuckled lightly in his heart, and instead of continuing to dwell on this topic, he asked the other party's views on the current economic situation, "Mr. Madoff, you are a senior in the industry, I don't know what you think about the current economic crisis?" (To be continued......)

PS: Thank you for the book friend's secret, oh my God, it's so difficult to choose a name, Xiao Shuili, book friend 140124234238290, my heart is crazy, hhr111 voted for the monthly ticket! Thank you for the tip! Sorted out the thoughts.,I finally wrote it out today and didn't let everyone wait too long.,No matter how many trivial things,The author will take a fixed time to write a book.,Strive not to disappoint everyone.,I hope you can continue to support this book.,Thank you~.