Chapter 237: Each Shows His Powers (I)

Yes, Greenspan is the heavyweight who stands for Wall Street, a blow back to the Hong Kong government's bailout, and in a way that represents the attitude of the US government.

Of course, Greenspan's speech has a good grasp of the scale, basically controlling the economic level, and it is difficult to say anything about politics in his capacity. But even so, his criticism of the Hong Kong government's bailout has caused an uproar in government and business circles around the world.

Who is Greenspan? The well-known chairman of the Federal Reserve, who has controlled the Fed for a decade and has been trusted by three US presidents, is facing a strong growth boom that has lasted for three years, and analysts judge that the growth rate of the US economy is far from over.

The growth of the US economy has also led to the growth of the world's economy, so there is no exaggeration in the market to say that the chairman of the Federal Reserve is not only the "God of Wealth" of the United States, but also the "God of Wealth" of the whole world.

With the rapid growth of the economy, Greenspan's personal prestige and influence on the market have also swelled rapidly, which has also made him begin to be more and more careful about his words and actions. And this kind of caution is even more vividly reflected in his public speeches -- the meaning of the words is vague, and he does not know what to say. While markets are still frantically tracking his public speeches, even the most astute economists on Wall Street are not sure to be able to interpret his speeches correctly.

"If you think you understand exactly what I am saying, then. You must have misunderstood what I said! Greenspan himself explained.

But this time, he took a stark stance on the Hong Kong government's bailouts and publicly predicted that the government would not succeed, much to the surprise of market watchers. While they were puzzled, they also deeply pinched a cold sweat for the Hong Kong government.

Sure enough, after Greenspan made a statement on the Hong Kong government's bailout, other institutions and prestigious individuals followed suit and launched a tidal wave of criticism of the Hong Kong government.

The Wall Street Journal published a lengthy article criticizing the Hong Kong government's bailouts, with an even more sensational headline, "Hong Kong has made a big mistake!" Stanley was the first to publish a relevant research report. The number of pages is up to 35. In the report, Stanley's analysts argue that the Hong Kong government's actions are "all-or-nothing" and indistinguishable from gambling. If the Hong Kong government ultimately fails, it will not only give Hong Kong people's hard-earned money to international speculators. And it will lose the initiative to defend the currency. There is even a risk that the linked exchange rate system will eventually fail.

Nobel laureate in economics, founder of the "monetary school", professor at the University of Chicago Milton. Friedman also lashed out: "...... Government intervention in the market. A terrible precedent has been set for the consequences of which could be endless. Even if the Hong Kong government is able to defeat the international speculators in the end, Hong Kong's status as an international financial center will be undermined. Investors will also be scared away by this act of both making and participating in the game. In the long run, Hong Kong will be greatly harmed by today's decision......"

Friedman's remarks are quite pertinent, but another Nobel laureate, Morton. Miller's speech was unceremonious, pointing out that someone in the Hong Kong government should be held accountable, and even in an interview with reporters, he suggested: "The Hong Kong government should do everything in its power to dismiss the senior officials who made this decision and send a positive message to the market to correct the mistakes made in the past." ”

Of course, there are many other economists who have criticized Hong Kong's bailouts, but some are purely academic, and some are as ill-intentioned as the Wall Street Journal and Stanley & Co.

For a time, criticism came and went, and most of them were well-known figures or institutions, which made the chief executive and Cen Yinquan, who made decisions, suddenly feel pressure.

Although these criticisms will not change anything, the next tricks used by the speculators have really made the Hong Kong government feel really tricky!

Not long after the so-called "Hong Kong government" entered the market, the rating agency Standard & Poor's hinted that it might downgrade Hong Kong's foreign exchange sovereign rating by the end of the month. They claim that the Hong Kong government's intervention in Hong Kong's stock and futures markets has changed the structure of Hong Kong's foreign exchange reserves, thereby increasing the risk of defending the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate and weakening the Hong Kong government's ability to provide financial support. Standard & Poor's has hinted at the possibility of downgrading Hong Kong's long-term foreign exchange ratings to A and A1 from A+ and A1+ respectively, as well as downgrading the long-term rating of the Hong Kong dollar to A+ from AA- and downgrading the short-term rating of the Hong Kong dollar from A1+ to A1, while the long-term outlook may turn negative. Standard & Poor's also hinted that it could downgrade Hong Kong again in the near term if the Hong Kong dollar's linked exchange rate falters, or if the Hong Kong government's actions further reduce fiscal support for the Hong Kong dollar.

If the criticism of celebrities and politicians in the past can be regarded as academic discussions, then the threat of rating agencies is now a sharp sword, directly hanging on the neck of the Hong Kong government. As the grade of debt, credit, currency and other underlying objects declines, it will face a series of risks such as financing, default and confidence, which will eventually affect all aspects of economic life.

Of course, since there is criticism, there are also voices of support. A group of financiers, tycoons, economists, and ordinary citizens, led by mainland and Hong Kong, expressed a warm welcome to the Hong Kong government's bailout of the market.

The richest man, Li Ka-shing, said that he fully supported the Hong Kong government's approach, but did not comment on whether the matter was right or wrong. "We don't have a choice," he said in an interview. In the interview, he also revealed that he did not lend out the shares of Changhe Industry on hand, and he did not sell short in the past, not now, and will not in the future.

An official surnamed Chen of the Executive Council said that the reason why the Hong Kong government took brazen action was entirely because international speculators stirred up trouble and disrupted Hong Kong's normal financial order, so it was necessary for the Hong Kong government to take necessary interventions. He also said. The Hong Kong government's actions came too late and should have intervened sooner.

An anonymous commentator wrote in the newspaper: "...... In today's world, the principles of the free market remain only in the minds of economists and in textbooks. It is the responsibility of any government to take necessary and reasonable intervention when the foundation of the national economy and the fundamental interests of the people are threatened, otherwise it will be a dereliction of duty. …… The government's intervention in the market is an extraordinary measure, which will inevitably cause some people in the outside world to have doubts about the operation of Hong Kong's financial market, and tarnish Hong Kong's status as an international financial center. But the Hong Kong government is also doing the lesser of two evils...... Although the US government has repeatedly praised the renminbi and the Hong Kong dollar for their undefeated, a considerable number of international speculators who are making waves in Hong Kong's financial markets are from the US background. Who knows if the United States will support Hong Kong at the critical moment, or push Hong Kong in turn......"

……

"It's so lively in the newspapers!" Ma Jiarui threw down a newspaper and shook his head with a sigh. "The impact of this incident has not faded. It's really 'you sing and I'll appear', it's so lively! ”

A week after the "Hong Kong government" "admitted" the bailout, the newspapers were still full of reports about this matter, and now the biggest daily pastime within the Tianyu Foundation is to watch this kind of news. Even Bell Stone is no exception.

Ren Ruowei took the newspaper. After taking a closer look from beginning to end. Only then did he grin, and said with a smile to Zhong Shi, who had just entered the door: "Director Cen and President Ren should invite you to dinner, look!" He raised the newspaper in his hand. Boss, how much pressure you've shared for them! ”

"I'm afraid they don't have the heart to invite me to dinner!"

Zhong Shi took off his suit, hung it on the hanger, and loosened the tie around his neck, then took the newspaper in Ren Ruowei's hand, and after a general glance, he said to the two people who were looking at each other: "Do you know?" During this time, speculators have increased their efforts to sell Hong Kong dollars, and now Cen Yinquan and Ren Yigang are so busy that they are staring at the real-time exchange rate of Hong Kong dollars all the time, for fear that one accidentally will let the speculators break through the 7.750 mark! ”

"Really?" Ma Jiarui's face suddenly changed greatly, and after frowning and thinking about it, he asked puzzledly, "It is said that after the bailout, many hedge funds have begun to retreat, and they have gradually made up for their losses from the Hong Kong dollar market, and are ready to leave the market." Zhong Sheng, your news is really surprising! ”

"It's a surprise!" Zhong Shi nodded, glanced at Ren Ruowei, who also had a solemn face, and continued, "The focus of the problem is not on those small hedge funds. In fact, as long as the Quantum Fund and the Tiger Fund do not retreat, even if some people retreat, as long as they raise their arms, they may soon enter the market again. Therefore, the HKMA does not dare to be careless. ”

According to their inference, international speculators have sold at least nearly 200 billion Hong Kong dollars of positions at present. In the absence of benefits in the stock market for the time being, they have shifted their focus to the Hong Kong dollar spot market, preparing to use the linkage effect between the two markets to depress the index again and achieve their goal of shorting Hong Kong stocks. ”

"200 billion Hong Kong dollars? Oh, my God! Ren Ruowei snorted, and his face turned extremely pale, "What a big number is this, just the daily interest...... I'll do the math...... At least tens of millions! ”

He didn't say the exact number, but it was enough time for the others to come up with an approximate number. Therefore, Ma Jiarui's face also changed.

"You're right! It should be expected that the Hong Kong government should raise the call rate to hit them in the next few days, and then it may cause bad news for the stock market, so we should take this opportunity to absorb a little more chips! Zhong Shi said expressionlessly.

Since the large-scale entry into the market on the 14th, Tianyu Fund has launched a fierce competition with speculators on various heavyweight stocks. On the 18th, due to Russia's announcement of the depreciation of the ruble, which caused global market shocks, Tianyu Fund once again entered the market with a capital of 2 billion Hong Kong dollars, and together with investors whose confidence was boosted by the "Hong Kong government" bailout, the Hang Seng Index was raised to 7,250 points. In the following trading days, Tianyu Fund invested nearly 5 billion Hong Kong dollars one after another, and together with investors, the stock market rose to 7845 points.

So far, Tianyu Fund has used a total of more than 15 billion Hong Kong dollars to raise the index of Hong Kong stocks from the lowest point of 6,544 points to the current 7,845 points, an increase of nearly 1,300 points.

Although the market improved, with the gradual rise of the index, Zhong Shi's mood became more and more heavy, and on several occasions he even lost his temper inexplicably on the trading floor, which made many people feel overwhelmed and did not understand what the problem was.

The stock market is a very strange place, and this strangeness is reflected in the zigzag fluctuations of stock prices, but the essence of it is the human heart. As soon as the "Hong Kong government" bailout came out, the whole market was boiling, so on the 18th, although the European and American stock markets fell sharply, international speculators took advantage of this to start a new upsurge of short selling Hong Kong stocks, but the confident investors no longer left the opportunity for international speculators to short, and they entered the market to buy, so that the Hang Seng Index only fell by 13 points on this day, and the Tianyu Fund only used 1.3 billion Hong Kong dollars of shares.

Because of the flock of investors, the cost of entering the market has increased significantly, which has also made the traders of the Tianyu Fund cautious, they do not want to be a stepping stone for others.

Therefore, every opportunity for Hong Kong stocks to fall will be an opportunity for Tianyu Fund to enter the market on a large scale!

Since the Hong Kong stock market has recovered to a level that is more recognized by the market, the opponent of Tianyu Fund at this time is no longer the frenzied selling of international speculators, but the game of how to compete for market share with those investors who flock in.

In this game, small and medium-sized investors are all grass on the wall, and they will pour wherever the wind blows. The most important thing is that they focus on short-term trading, and every penny they earn is not the profit of the listed company, nor the price difference caused by good expectations for the future, but every penny of real money invested by Tianyu Fund.

This was something that Zhong Shi had not expected before.

And if he doesn't get enough chips, Zhong Shi's funds may be locked at a high level, although what he said to Cen Yinquan, Ren Yigang and others is to work hard to protect the market, but he is absolutely unwilling to do it in this way. And Cen Yinquan and Ren Yigang may have calculated this possibility a long time ago, so they agreed to him so happily.

was unintentionally put on a side, and no one would be happy in their hearts.

"This is really the Eight Immortals crossing the sea, each showing their magical powers!" Shaking his head, Zhong Shi tried hard to expel this frustration out of his head, and then regained his normal state of mind, "Let's get ready to open the market!" Observe the market today before preparing to make a move! (To be continued......)

PS: Thank you to the book friend Pudding * Cat for voting for the monthly pass! Thank you for your strong support from new and old book friends, although there are many things that make the author busy and annoyed, but writing a book should be as persistent as possible~