Chapter 13: Attacking the Thai Baht (1)
On May 11, the day Zhong Shi and Zhong Yi planned to list Huade Real Estate, American capital began a long-planned offensive against Jihua.
"Zhong Sheng, come and see, there has been a major fluctuation in the Thai baht." In the office of Tianyu Foundation Hong Kong, Zhong Shi was sleeping soundly when a voice suddenly sounded in his ears, waking him up from his sleep.
"......" Zhong Shi, who woke up suddenly, turned over from the sofa, looked at Andrew, who was excited, and couldn't help but be a little annoyed in his heart, and said angrily: "Didn't you already know?" Still making such a fuss? ”
Andrew rubbed his hands, and was a little embarrassed to disturb Zhongshi's rest, so he had to smile and say, "It's one thing to hear it, but it's another thing to see it with your own eyes." Now that I've finally seen it, I can finally put my mind down. ”
Just as he was talking, Zhong Shi yawned loudly, obviously not completely sobering up. However, after hearing Andrew's words, Zhong Shi couldn't help but say with some amusement: "Hasn't the baht been fluctuating within the permissible edge range of BOT recently?" And the short positions in several major international currency markets have increased quite a bit, and this is not sure to you? ”
"I'm still not at ease!" Andrew shook his head with a wry smile on his face, "I've lived here for several years and know a little bit about the political environment in these countries. It's completely different here than in Europe, and I certainly believe that those hedge funds will be able to hit the monetary systems of these countries. But ......"
"What?" Zhong Shi saw that he wanted to speak and stopped, and he couldn't help but feel curious in his heart. "Don't you sympathize with the plight of these countries?"
Andrew nodded heavily.
Zhong Shi was speechless for a while, stood up and walked in the direction of the bathroom, and dropped a sentence, "You still don't know much about the political situation in these countries!" "I went into the bathroom.
Although Thailand has been a constitutional democracy since 1932, the country has long been governed by a military government, meaning that the power of the country is not in the hands of the people. Coups are a common occurrence in the country, and the longest government that has been elected to power has been sitting for only five years. Corruption and fraud are prevalent and local traditions are stubborn, which is characteristic of this country.
Not to mention other countries. Indonesia is controlled by the Suharto family. Singapore is controlled by the Lee family. The Philippines, although it claims to be the most democratic country in Asia, is actually in name only, and corruption official scandals are frequent. Social turmoil. Although there have been achievements in economic development. But it is far from covering up the associated problems.
What can promote the development of these countries will not be internal liliang in the short term, because the people of these countries are still immersed in the era of the Asian Tigers. Complacent about rapid development. But once this illusion is exposed, it will promote reforms within these countries, including the breaking of existing interests, changes in the political system, and economic reforms.
Although this may be suspected of interfering in the internal affairs of other countries, in the long run, only this kind of external impetus can enable these countries to better build a social system that benefits more people.
Therefore, Zhongshi has a very welcoming attitude towards the coming currency crisis. While this currency crisis will eventually turn into a financial crisis that will hit the livelihoods of millions of people hard, how can there be no pain when reform is needed?
Happily draining the liquid that had been held in his body for a long time, Zhong Shi let out a long sigh and felt a sense of relief all over his body. Just as he was about to open the small door of the cubicle and go out, he suddenly heard a muffled moan from next door.
"Huh?" Zhong Shi couldn't help but stop, holding his breath and listening carefully, there was silence all around, only the faint sound of running water. Zhong Shi shook his head, thinking that he had just had auditory hallucinations, then washed his hands and was about to walk out of the bathroom, when suddenly a low gasp came from behind him.
This time Zhong Shi heard very clearly, it was not that he was hallucinating, but that someone was indeed in the bathroom, but he didn't know that Weishenme made such a strange sound. Zhong Shi suddenly became curious, he first walked out of the bathroom heavily, and when he reached the door, he walked back softly, standing in the center of the room and listening with bated breath.
"Gone?" A female voice suddenly sounded.
"Gone!" Then a deep male voice replied softly, "At this time in time, very few people come in, let's continue?" ”
This was followed by a crackling sound, interspersed with the woman's low moans and the man's heavy gasps. When Zhong Shi heard this, he didn't understand. He secretly let out a bad breath, and raised his foot to leave. At this moment, the woman inside couldn't bear it anymore, and urged loudly: "Hurry up, hurry up and ......" It seems that it has reached a critical moment.
Zhong Shiyi, who was outside, frowned, paused heavily, and then walked out quickly.
It didn't matter if he stomped his feet, he scared the man and woman who were in the fluttering situation half to death, and the two of them quickly stopped their movements, pricked up their ears together, and listened carefully to the movement outside, until they were sure that there was no one outside, then they glanced at each other, and they were not interested in continuing the unfinished business just now, and hurriedly packed up their clothes and walked out on their front and back feet.
For the act of messing around in the bathroom, Zhong Shi has not seen it. In fact, on Wall Street, he had seen his colleagues bring blonde girls to the break room on many occasions, let alone smoking marijuana. It's just that he didn't expect that he didn't know when there would be this kind of atmosphere in his company.
"Who is he?" Although he was standing far away from Andrew, after seeing the man come out of the bathroom and scan around, Zhong Shi couldn't help but ask Andrew.
"Him?" Andrew followed Zhong Shi's gaze and found that it was a researcher at the Hong Kong Foundation. The size of the Tianyu Fund is not large, so Andrew knows all the employees. He also saw a man and a woman coming out of the bathroom one after another, and naturally knew what they were doing inside, but it was not the first time he had seen this phenomenon, and he didn't bother to care about it, so he said lightly: "A researcher in the Hong Kong part, he achieved good results in the first half of the year, and he is an ace analyst. ”
Zhong Shi, who originally wanted to rectify the atmosphere, was stunned, and then said sullenly: "Leave him alone." Get a separate bathroom in my office as soon as possible, I don't want to happen to this again. ”
Since the other party is still of some use to the company, he naturally won't blame him for this little thing. In fact, in the entire financial field, as long as the employee is valuable, then even if he does something excessive, no one will be held accountable, even if it is insider trading that violates regulations, the management will turn a blind eye and treat it as if it is completely unsightly. Of course, they won't be involved.
Zhong Shi, who was well versed in this, naturally thought about the problem in this way, so he just asked unhappily and put the matter aside.
"It's below 26 baht to 1!" When Zhongshi and Andrew arrived at the trading department, they heard a loud noise, and the traders shouted the number 26 in surprise.
They are talking about the real-time exchange rate of the Thai baht in the London currency market, because the largest spot market has closed trading, so the real-time quote can only look at the currency market in places such as London and New York, which are still trading hours. Although there are also some baht trading between commercial banks during this time, these quotes are not comparable to futures contracts in the money market, so most traders rely on the real-time quotes of futures.
The exchange rate between the Thai baht and the US dollar has remained at 25 baht to 1 US dollar all year round, although the BOT has set a floating range, which is 4% of the upper and lower ranges, that is, the range of 26 to 24 baht to one US dollar is an acceptable range, and now due to the violent short positioning, this range is approaching the critical point stipulated by the BOT.
"Is it just broken?" Andrew looked at the quote that flashed on the screen and said in disbelief. In recent weeks, the Thai government has repeatedly claimed that it has tens of billions of dollars in foreign exchange reserves and will definitely hold on to the baht, but by this time the baht has clearly reached the brink of floating.
"No, the best is yet to come!" Zhong Shi glanced at another screen, and here appeared the data from the New York side, although the quotation of the Thai baht showed a red line, but it was obvious that the downward trend was slowing down and there was a tendency to re-raise the price under the 26 baht mark.
"There is no news to support the news that Thailand will abandon the fixed exchange rate policy, but all the information that Thailand is going all out and desperately resisting, so there will be a counterattack in the market, and this kind of liliang that grabs the rebound will exist at any time." Zhong Shi pointed to the white line that suddenly pulled out on the screen and said to a group of stunned traders.
"So what do we need to do?" A quick-witted trader spoke.
Zhong Shi shook his head and said in a deep voice, "Now is not the time. Look, it's not so easy to attack a country's currency. I believe that soon the short seller will concoct news that is unfavorable to the market, and in addition, BOT will soon make a move. ”
Zhong Shi is not wrong, the white candlestick that was pulled out just now was done by the traders of BOT. On the trading floor of the Bank of Thailand, traders in charge of the European and American markets are nervously manipulating one sell order after another. Soon, when the Thai baht was about to fall below 26 baht to 1 dollar, they collectively took action and used a large amount of money to raise the price, temporarily stabilizing the value of the Thai baht.
Speaking of the amount of US dollar funds, I believe that the foreign exchange trading department of any commercial bank or hedge fund cannot be compared with the central bank of a country, they are the main funds of the currency contract related to the money market, so when they make a move, the currency value quickly stabilizes. (To be continued......)
PS: Thank you very much for the monthly ticket cast by the book friend Shi Huangtian!