Chapter 12 The Events of 1984 and the Wave of Immigration

In the 1980 U.S. election, the Republican Party's candidate Ronald Brown. Ronald Reagan was elected the 40th president of the United States, becoming the first American president to be an actor.

In the 70s, there was a shijie economic crisis, and the United States was not immune. The entire advanced capitalist countries were mired in a predicament of stagflation, which lasted for 10 years.

The so-called stagflation is a term in economics that refers to the coexistence of economic stagnation and inflation, and the emergence of this phenomenon has led to the bankruptcy of Keynesianism, which has long been the mainstream of economics.

Keynesianism advocates active government intervention in the economy, expanding aggregate demand through increased government investment, which in turn promotes economic growth.

This assertion allowed the United States to survive the Great Depression of the 30s, and Keynesianism became the mainstream economic thought in Western countries until the 70s.

After Reagan came to power, he formulated economic policy through supply-side ideas, and reduced inflation by cutting government spending and controlling the growth of the money supply. In addition, through tax cuts and accelerated depreciation, it has promoted economic stability and development, and has succeeded in making the US economy prosperous again.

Against this backdrop, the stock market, which is a "barometer of the economy", began to grow by leaps and bounds, and at the end of 1982, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose above 1,000 points again, and has not been below it since. In 1982, the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a new high and broke through 2,000 points.

With the increase in the securitization rate, financial institutions in the United States also began to develop rapidly, and Wall Street investment banks began to abandon the partnership system and sought to go public, and in 1971, Merrill Lynch became the first investment bank to go public.

The fund industry, which is in the upstream of the financial ecological chain, has also sprung up like mushrooms after a rain, showing an explosive growth trend. A large amount of capital has been invested in mutual funds, and hedge funds have also begun to gain traction among some investors.

1980 Julian. Robertson founded Tiger Fund, Shaw Hedge Fund was launched in 1982, Renaissance Technology was also launched in the same year, and Soros has already partnered with Jim. Rogers has parted ways, but his quantum fund has already made a name for itself on Wall Street. And the legend of hedge funds, John . Paulson is still working hard for others.

In 1984, Apple's performance declined due to the unsatisfactory sales of the Mac project that Steve Jobs had spent a lot of money on, and the company's shareholders were dissatisfied with Jobs and kicked him out of the company he founded. In 1984, Microsoft surpassed $100 million in sales, becoming a notable new star in the PC industry, and in two years, it would go public. Cisco won't be founded until the end of the year, while Sun, founded two years ago, is a humble company in Silicon Valley, and Oracle, which has just changed its name for two years, is making a big push into the global market.

The reason why Zhong Shi remembers so many giants of the IT industry is because in previous lives, these technology companies created one amazing miracle after another, shortening the accumulation of wealth from generations to just decades, or even years.

This is very much in line with Zhongshi's plan to make money quickly.

The hedge fund industry is very profitable, and Zhong Shi knows all about Shijie financial affairs in the following decades, but at this time he still has less capital in his hands and is not qualified to join this capital feast.

Thinking of this, Zhong Shi couldn't help but sigh, and carefully recalled in his mind the major events that would happen in 84, so that the money in his hands could grow rapidly.

His goal is still the capital market in the United States, and now the most important thing is to complete the accumulation of raw capital.

China's capital market doesn't need to be considered at all, not to mention the lack of various financial instruments, even the Feilo audio that will be released this year, and he doesn't want to participate in it.

In November 1984, the first stock of Huaxia - Feilo Audio, which was publicly issued, was snapped up by tens of thousands of people as soon as it came out. Zhong Shi even suspected that if he was at the scene, he would definitely be trampled to death by the chaotic crowd.

There is only one opportunity in the past two years, that is, in the foreign exchange market, the yen in 85 will be an opportunity, but compared to the soaring price of the "Changjiang Industrial", which has higher returns, Zhongshi has to carefully calculate.

Without the stock index futures, a big tool to make money, making money is slow! Zhong Shi wailed, causing the little yellow dog in the courtyard to bark wildly.

In 1982, the United States launched S&P 500 stock index futures, in 86, Hong Kong launched Hang Seng Index futures, and in the same year, Singapore launched Nikkei 225 index futures, but these are still nearly two years away.

Zhong Shi can naturally invest in stock index futures in the United States, but he has not been able to go abroad this year, and over-the-counter trading in this year is not as easy as in later generations, and at that time, the underlying price of a first-hand S&P 500 contract reached hundreds of thousands of dollars, although there is leverage, but with Zhong Shi's current net worth, he still can't afford it.

Thinking like this, Zhong Shi fell asleep deeply.

……

Time passed quickly, and in the blink of an eye, at the end of the year '84, on December 19 of that year, Zhao Dongyang, then the premier of China, and British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher signed the "Sino-British Joint Declaration" in Yenching, which made Hong Kong's prospects clearer.

In September, Margaret Thatcher arrived in Yenching to discuss the future of Hong Kong with Chinese leaders, and as soon as the news broke, a crisis of confidence broke out in Hong Kong, and the tide of immigrants surged, and many countries extended olive branches to Hong Kong, hoping to wipe out Hong Kong's rich and professional people.

If people emigrate, they will inevitably take their wealth with them, and many people have already made plans to take precautions, first transfer their wealth abroad, and then carry their passports with them, so that if the situation changes, they can immediately get on a plane and leave Hong Kong.

Against this backdrop, the stock market also fluctuated, and the Hang Seng Index continued to slide, and by the end of '84, the Hang Seng Index had fallen by more than 670 points.

What's more, many large enterprises based in Hong Kong have announced that they will move their domiciles. In March '84, the 150-year-old Jardine Matheson Group of Hong Kong announced that it had decided to move its registered place from Hong Kong to Bermuda due to concerns about the future of Hong Kong. As soon as the news broke, the entire Hong Kong business community was in turmoil, and the Hang Seng Index plummeted by 62 points.

Since the beginning of Jardine Matheson, Hong Kong enterprises have been relocated, and the stock prices of many large enterprises have plummeted, which is a good time for Zhongshi to build a position and absorb goods.

Thinking of this, Zhong Shi couldn't sit still any longer, walked to the phone, and dialed the international call.

At that time, there were no program-controlled telephones, only dial telephones, and every time Zhong Shi saw this kind of ancient telephone, a sense of intimacy would rise in his heart.

When I was a trader at Morgan Stanley, I had to make hundreds of calls to this kind of phone every day, and the entire trading floor was filled with "bell" and "bang" sounds. It's not that investment banks can't afford to buy new and advanced phones, and the reason why they favor them is because they can't be broken!

Traders face tens of millions, if not billions of trades, every day, and millions of profits are lost in the blink of an eye, so don't expect this group of emotionally volatile people to be gentle with the phone.

In these years, it is not easy to make an international call, you have to call the local telecommunications bureau first, and then the telecommunications bureau will be connected to the southeast of China, and then from there to Yanjing, and Zuihou will be connected to Hong Kong. This trip takes at least half an hour, and the phone bill is also very expensive, so it is usually Liao Chengde who calls.

"Hey, Zhong Sheng?" After waiting for almost an hour, Liao Chengde's Hong Kong-style Mandarin rang on the other end of the phone.

"Hong Kong peasants, how is Hong Kong doing?" Zhong Shi had been waiting impatiently for a long time, and he would not be polite when he spoke.

Hearing Zhong Shi call him "Hong Kong farmer", Liao Chengde sighed, and a sense of helplessness rose in his heart. In 1978, Hong Kong TVB broadcast a TV series "People in the Net", in which there was a male protagonist named Ah Can, a rural boy who smuggled to Hong Kong from the mainland and became a household name. Later, "Ah Can" became synonymous with peasants and stupidity in Shijie Chinese areas.

However, since Liao Chengde met Zhong Shi, he did not dare to say this word easily, this child is not only proficient in Cantonese, but also has an understanding of various phenomena in Hong Kong society, and most importantly, Liao Chengde himself was smuggled into Hong Kong from the mainland.

"Zhong Sheng, Hong Kong is in chaos now, and many people are planning to emigrate, for fear that the Workers' and Peasants' Party will take over Hong Kong and equalize them. I heard that Mr. Li Ka-shing is also going to invest in foreign countries, should we still buy Cheung Kong stocks? Liao Chengde suppressed the crankiness in his heart and told Zhong Shi everything he knew truthfully.

"What a chance, hurry up and buy it, and put all your net worth into it. Don't worry, Cheung Kong and Hutchison will not go abroad, Li Ka-shing and Huaxia's high-level relationship is very good, far beyond your imagination. Like the Huo family, the Bao family, the Li family, the Dong family, etc., are very popular in Yan Kyoto, even in 97, their enterprises will not have anything at all. Zhong Shi chuckled and said nonchalantly.

"Really? How do you know? Actually, I also have jihua and am ready to migrate to Australia, what do you think? Liao Chengde thought it was very strange, how could this kid even know this.

He naturally couldn't imagine that Zhong Shi came from the future thirty years later, in that era of information explosion, what news could not be found? Later, in 2010, there was even a website called "WikiLeaks", which revealed a large number of classified documents of the US Foreign Ministry, and in those documents related to Hong Kong, a large number of local tycoons and high-level Chinese officials were exposed.

"What are you afraid of? The Chinese leadership has introduced the policy of 'one country, two systems', and as long as you don't want to get involved in politics, there is no need to emigrate. Zhong Shi pursed his lips and said disdainfully.

"That's right, we are in business, and we are most afraid of having something to do with the government! You don't know how much trouble there is in doing business in the mainland......" As soon as Liao Chengde talked about politics, he had a stomach full of bitter water to vomit, although he was also courteous in the mainland, but there were always people following him, staring at him faintly.

"Okay, okay, long-distance calls are expensive, so you don't have to tell your heart. I will give you an opinion, I will end the business of investment in the mainland as soon as possible, and invest all your net worth in the stock market, and I guarantee that you will make a lot of money. There is one more thing, can you help me inquire about whether I can buy and sell foreign exchange futures in Hong Kong, especially yen futures, and tell me as soon as possible! Zhong Shi hurriedly interrupted him and said to Liao Chengde in a commanding tone.

After Liao Chengde on the other end of the phone repeated it, Zhong Shi couldn't wait to hang up the phone and made a loud "clang".

"This damn habit!" Zhong Shi cursed in his heart, and then smiled bitterly.

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