Chapter Ninety-Three: The Fourth Issue: Soaring Lending Rates (Part II)
The relationship between interest rates and the stock market can be correlated by the cost of money, and in fact both sides are channels for financing. If money is blood, then bank financing and stock market financing channels are like two thick blood vessels, when one of them suddenly becomes thicker, the blood flowing through this blood vessel naturally becomes more and more.
This kind of "thickening of blood vessels" performance is put in the capital market, which is the price of funds, that is, the level of interest rates. In the case of Hong Kong stocks falling one after another, it is difficult to find a stock that can make stable profits or even maintain the original price, and investors at this time will be more inclined to invest in risk-free deposits, which will cause insufficient blood supply to the stock market, which will inevitably cause the index to fall.
In addition to this competition for money, the decline of the Hang Seng Index is also due to investors' concerns about the increased costs of listed companies. Because it is inevitable that a company will borrow money in its operation, after the sharp rise in the call rate, it will inevitably lead to concerns about the rise in loan costs, which in turn will directly affect the expectation of net profit, and then cause the price of stocks to fall.
The pumping of funds and unfavorable expectations, as well as the unscrupulous suppression of large institutions and the panic-driven selling behavior of small shareholders, all these reasons prompted the Hang Seng Index to fall wildly on this day.
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Researchers at Tianyu Fund are still discussing whether the Hang Seng Index can stand above and below the 10,000-point mark, and when the bears and the bulls are fighting for each other, the Hang Seng Index is already approaching the 10,000-point integer mark, and at this time in the Hang Seng Index futures market. This divergence has reached its peak.
The previously lost bulls began to open new positions frequently in order to pull down the previously heavily lost positions, while the bears were not to be outdone, and except for a few small short positions, the main bears did not hesitate to take the newly opened long positions. It is clear that in the eyes of the bears, the figure of 10,000 points does not mean anything, even if the bulls are menacing.
Although both sides of the stock index futures market are gearing up for a battle at the 10,000 level, it is clear that the Hong Kong stock market is not working as they wish. The Hang Seng Index is approaching 10,000 points. The downward momentum did not slow down at all, and it was only a blink of an eye to break through this psychological barrier, and then continued to probe deeply.
9950, 9900, 9850, 9800 and other integer thresholds have fallen one after another, and the confidence of small shareholders in the entire market has collapsed. There are even people who believe that the "stock market crash" is coming again. In fact, it was around 9800 points. The Hang Seng Index as a whole has fallen nearly 16%, and it is not an exaggeration to call it a stock market crash.
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When the index fell below 10,000 points, Song Ling and others were already red-eyed. Although their previous strategy was to let those related households come forward, and they and others did not have to bear the notoriety of being responsible, at this time, Hong Kong stocks generally fell sharply, and it is no longer possible to say that they will not come out at this time.
"Hey, is it the Chinese Associated Press? I need to urgently mobilize 3 billion Hong Kong dollars here, and the speed must be fast! Song Ling's voice was already hoarse, and at this time, the phone rang one after another in his office, usually one phone was not answered, and another phone rang again, and the people who talked to him were all complaining, and even some people scolded them bitterly as soon as they came up, not giving Song Ling a chance to explain at all.
In this case, Song Ling also panicked. He knew very well that if he couldn't hold the market in time, the favors he had sold before would immediately come to naught, and on the contrary, he would form a lot of grudges. Therefore, he quickly dialed the telephone number of the Hualian Press, and the control of the large amount of money was in their hands.
The Hualian Society did not dare to slack off, although they usually had a lot of difficulties with the group headed by Song Ling, but at this time the matter was very important, if they could not do anything else, when the superiors thundered and wried, they would bear the brunt of the attack. Therefore, as soon as Song Ling called to mobilize funds, they immediately transferred the funds to the city, and the same was true for several other people.
In just a few minutes, the Hang Seng Index has fallen below 9900. When he saw that there were billions of Hong Kong dollars more in the account, Song Ling had the time to wipe the beads of sweat from his forehead, and commanded the trader in a deep voice: "Buy!" Buy me like crazy! State-owned enterprise stocks are preferred, weighted stocks are second, and you can watch the rest! ”
At the same time, similar orders have been conveyed in the capital markets offices of several other large enterprises.
When the Hang Seng Index fell to 9800, the market began to emerge with several large buy and sell orders, there were funds at the low level to frantically absorb the market selling, and investors with a keen sense of smell soon realized that there may be funds from the market to enter the market, and the first group of people to react began to stop selling, and instead buy and bet on the rebound.
Although the funds of Song Ling and others began to enter the market, the market sell-off was too turbulent, and the Hang Seng Index fell to 9767 points before it was re-stabilized, and then in the face of the continuous influx of massive buying funds, the Hang Seng Index began to soar upward, and the momentum was very fierce.
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"It's up, it's rebounding!" There was an exclamation from the Tianyu employees crouching in front of the computer, and a small number of people had begun to close their positions on the futures index when they were around 10,000 points, but most of them chose to continue to wait and see, at which time the strong rally of the Hang Seng Index made their hopes begin to fail.
"Quick, call the broker and ask them to close the position." This group of people is worthy of being professionals, after experiencing the initial frustration and unwillingness, and carefully analyzed the trend of the market, they quickly made a decision to close the short selling positions that they had made a lot of money on hand.
At this time, in the stock index futures market, the bearish camp began to mess up, they could not figure out whether the rebound was short-lived or more durable, except for some investors who were resolutely short, other bears either chose to close their positions and leave, or chose to turn short, and the trading volume of stock index futures increased rapidly for a while.
In the most decisive spot market of Hong Kong stocks, with the entry of funds in the market. One after another, some desperate bottom-buying funds also entered the market to buy Hong Kong stocks, and Hong Kong stocks began to accelerate their recovery with the intervention of these funds, and soon hit the 10,000-point mark.
It's just different from the time it fell, this time the Hang Seng Index stood at 10,000 points and took a lot of effort, first at 9,990 points, the short spot side began to exert force, the momentum of the Hang Seng Index rose to suppress it, and then there were huge short selling orders in the Hang Seng Index futures market, with tens of thousands of hands, and it was impossible to trade for a while. But it was clear to the bulls that they were ready to fight the Hang Seng Index back. At such times, the human heart begins to become unstable again.
Ren Ruowei and Ma Jiarui had the heart to ask Zhong Shi's opinion, but when they pushed open the door of Zhong Shi's office, they found that the top boss was sleeping in front of the computer, and the telephone line connected to his room was also unplugged. It was clear that Zhongshi did not want to be disturbed.
See this scene. Ma and Ren looked at each other and smiled bitterly. I really don't know what to say.
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"How much money do we have left?" After a thrilling hour, Song Ling could finally catch his breath, but at this time he couldn't take a break at all. Quickly ask the traders about the operation of their funds.
Because once the purchase amount exceeds 5%, it is necessary to declare the intention to the exchange, so the traders are very careful to avoid this situation, usually buy a company's shares close to 4% and then choose to stop, and then buy the shares of another company, naturally, most of these companies are state-owned enterprise stocks.
"Less than 30 million, our funds have been almost consumed, if there is another short sell-off, I am afraid it will not be able to support it." The traders roughly counted the funds on the account and came to a conclusion that surprised Song Ling.
Song Ling's face immediately changed, and after pacing back and forth for a few steps, he gritted his teeth and dialed the phone number of the Hualian Society, asking for more support from there.
The situation of several other companies is also not much better, billions of funds are invested in the stock market, only to raise the Hong Kong stock by about 200 points, and then it is powerless. If it were in normal times, billions of funds would enter the market, how could it pull up one or two heavyweight stocks, driving the index to soar by a few hundred points, but at this time, the whole market was filled with pessimism, and most of these funds took over the selling of small shareholders, rather than driving funds to buy up.
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In the United States, seeing that the goal has been achieved, the quantum fund deliberately released a large short selling order at the 10,000 point position, and withdrew it when the market's perception was confused, and then the speculators began to cover their positions at the 9950 position, for them, this position has far exceeded their imagination.
After approaching 10,000 points, the Hang Seng Index began to stagnate, and even analysts were puzzled, why did the previous surge suddenly disappear? Is this a joke? And the small shareholders and even institutions sitting in front of the TV can only wait dryly for these "celebrities" to give a clear answer, and these analysts can only play dumb riddles like zazen, looking left and right about him.
The stagnant Hong Kong stock market did not last long, and soon there was a large number of buying orders again, apparently not intimidated by the short selling of stock index futures, in fact, they were originally in a group. The Hang Seng Index rose again, and soon broke through 10,000 points under the expectation of the public, and returned to the five-digit ranks, and the Hang Seng Index rose unabated after standing on 10,000 points, and continued to rebound, breaking through the 10,100, 10,200, 10,300 and other marks one after another, and finally rebounded to 10,426 points.
At this point, the whole day's trading came to an end, and the Hang Seng Index came out of a trough wavy line, although it eventually rebounded, but compared to the 1212 points that plummeted throughout the day, this increase is really limited, and combined with the first three trading days, the Hang Seng Index has fallen by more than 2000 points in a row.
No one knows what is going on, how can an ordinary interest rate hike turn into a crash of the nature of a "stock market crash"? For the rebound after the worst rebound, Song Ling and others may know a little, but they don't know about the second rebound. It is not known how the overwhelming disinformation and the widespread sell-off by institutions, including institutions, caused it.
The international speculators led by the Tiger Fund who have been preparing for today for several months have made a lot of money after successfully causing the herd effect, and all that remains is how to close the short selling orders on hand one after another.
"Start during the day, buy Hong Kong dollars from the market and close our positions as soon as possible!" Julian Robertson, who had finished trading for the day, nodded with satisfaction, although he did not specifically count the gains, but it was enough to make him very happy, and all he had to do now was to buy back the Hong Kong dollar position as soon as possible to reduce the loss, "Also, you can make the next step!" ”
……
Financial Secretary Shun Yin-kuen had to stand up and speak, saying that Hong Kong's economic fundamentals are stable and there is no problem, so today's stock market is not a "stock market crash", but because it is affected by temporary speculation by external factors, investors do not need to panic about it. In any case, he argued, the Hong Kong government's primary purpose was to defend the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate, and although there had been speculation in the market overnight before, this speculation has been quelled.
As the unit in charge of monetary policy, the HKMA also came out to speak, Ren Yigang said that the current increase in the call rate is only to crack down on the speculation of the Hong Kong dollar, in fact, the day before, the HKMA has successfully thwarted a large-scale short selling action by speculators, and judging from the performance of the Hong Kong foreign exchange market today, speculators are busy covering their positions, indicating that their speculative activities have failed.
There are all kinds of signs that this time the Hong Kong dollar speculation has come to an end.
But, is that really the case? (To be continued......)