Chapter 264: Rabbit Dead Dog Cooking (3)
After a few moments, Soros stood up, walked to the bar behind the desk, shuddered and pulled out a bottle of wine, and said, "I have to think about it, let me have a glass of brandy first!" After speaking, he poured out a small half glass of wine and drank it all.
His movements were so fast that Druckenmiller, who was so fast on the side, didn't have time to stop him. Druckenmiller saw very clearly that Soros was not taking out brandy, but vodka, and there was a big difference in taste between the two, but his boss didn't notice it, which shows that his boss's mood is really messed up.
Following Druckenmiller's gaze, Soros realized that he was holding vodka in his hand, he shook the glass in his hand a little embarrassed, and said self-deprecatingly: "This is really a surprising result, what should we do?" ”
Soros, who has always been very assertive and measured, actually asked Druckenmiller for advice at this time, which is extremely rare, although the exchanges between the two are very frequent, but on fundamental and principled issues, most of them are still made by Soros.
Although he was quite surprised, Druckenmiller was also very embarrassed at this time, and he didn't know how to answer for a while.
On the one hand, it is a punishment for the betrayer, and behind it is a seemingly unreliable news to support it, and the problem is that if this news is true, then the quantum fund can escape from that hellish place on the one hand, and punish the betrayer to the greatest extent.
But from another point of view, ignoring these things and continuing to attack Hong Kong also carries certain risks. Because of the first experience, the Hong Kong government has grasped the general strategy of the other side. Coupled with the fact that the wind has been released, it is very likely to intervene in the market. Therefore, the possibility of using dollar reserves cannot be ruled out.
Most importantly, we now know that our allies have a history of betrayal. Soros didn't dare to hand over his back to them again under any circumstances, although everyone had a common enemy, but this was too unsafe for his own side.
As for the first one about "Russian government bonds", if the news is purely fictitious, then with the current position of the Quantum Fund, once these national bonds can be paid normally, it will be billions of dollars. And if true, the losses could be billions of dollars or more.
For the second to continue the offensive against Hong Kong, the potential losses may be less. The benefits may be higher, but the risks are significantly greater than the former.
The pros and cons of both are obvious, and the consequences are completely different, so even if you are as shrewd as Soros, it is difficult to make a choice for a while.
"By the way, what's the latest movement on the government side?" After thinking hard for a long time, Druckenmiller's head suddenly had an idea and remembered a key point, that is, the attitude of the US government. "Recently, there have been no new directives from Washington, no matter what it is, Russia or Hong Kong, or even South Korea."
It doesn't matter what it is. What matters is the attitude of the government, and this is especially important at this time.
According to Zhong Shi, these capitals are the hounds of the government. You may take advantage of it when you need it, and forget about it when you don't. Or even secretly pit it. Although Druckenmiller was very unimpressed, at this time he could only use dead horses as live horse doctors. Let's find out the attitude of the government first.
Logically speaking, after the collapse of international funds and hedge funds in Hong Kong, although it is not appropriate for the government to express its position in public, it only needs to give an explanation to these capitals, or even a verbal consolation. Although they did not hesitate to let many big names in the business world and even Greenspan himself take turns to cheer them on during the attack, these voices disappeared without a trace after the hedge fund was defeated.
But in any case, the government dignitaries responsible for planning this operation should at least tell them the real attitude of the government towards their operation, or the future deployment, and so on.
"No, no news!" Soros's face suddenly became gloomy, it was obvious that Druckenmiller's question hit the crux of the matter, indeed, the key to solving all the problems at present lies in the attitude of the government, but at this time he still has confidence in the government, and forced himself to justify, "These are just happened, the government should not have time to assess the situation, I believe they will give us an explanation at the right time." ”
"Nope! No! No! Druckenmiller's head shook like a rattle, and he didn't agree with Soros's statement at all, and after saying three "no" in a row, he pointed to the center of the problem, "I'm not talking about Hong Kong, but Russia, on the 17th, the Russian authorities announced a slight devaluation of the currency, and the government should have some contact with them, after all, if Russia is really in turmoil, those weapons of mass destruction are a mortal threat to everyone." Half a month is enough time for them to negotiate a result! ”
"What do you mean......" Soros stood up from the bar in shock, his tone full of disbelief, "They really abandoned us?" ”
Wall Street has been paying attention to the situation in Russia for a long time, and there is a widespread perception here that "how can a nuclear power default." Although Russia's economy is sluggish, domestic tax revenues are not enough to support debt payments, and the IMF is at a standoff because of the bailout clauses, Wall Street elites still believe that Russian government bonds that are maturing in the near future will not default.
They rely on the belief that if the situation in Russia is unstable, their huge nuclear arsenal will also be implicated, and Western countries, including the United States, will never tolerate such behavior.
In fact, the real opponent of the investment strategy driven by this reasoning is the IMF, or the US government, the largest shareholder of the IMF. The greedy capital finally devoured his master.
At this time, the U.S. government doesn't think that it will bring them any benefits if it bails out Russia, this country is not as easy to control as Southeast Asian countries, and it is impossible to become an ally, so it only needs to help them control their arsenal. Then nothing else will be a problem.
It can be said that this time the bet of capital annoyed the US government. Let them realize that if they don't teach these greedy capitals a lesson. If they are not kept in the grip of power, God knows what they will do.
These are all analyzed by Zhong Shi himself, of course, he did not say it to Drucken Miller and others.
The special envoys of the Clinton administration have already held several secret meetings with their dignitaries, including the president, in Moscow, and have even reached agreements on certain key issues. And important people from Western Europe are also frequently haunting various key departments in Russia, and these forces have been brewing something for a long time. But these are highly classified things, so even if the power of the world's capital is used, nothing can be found, because these things are aimed at them in the first place.
Although that's what the mouth says. But Soros was already sweating at this time, and he suddenly thought of a terrible possibility that he, or the class he represented, might really be abandoned by the U.S. government.
Seeing Soros's situation, Druckenmiller still didn't understand, so he was anxious at the moment, and loudly persuaded: "Boss, it's time to make a decision!" ”
Although he doesn't have the logical reasoning ability of Zhong Shi. But Soros has an extremely sharp instinct, which has helped him through several difficulties. At this time, the uneasiness caused by this intuition became more and more intense, and he fidgeted, and after a long time of tightening his brow. Then he slapped the table and said, "Stanley, forward those analysis reports of Mr. Cole and Mrs. Thatcher to Rodney in Hong Kong. Jones. ”
"What?" Druckenmiller was so surprised that his jaw almost dropped. But the next moment, he suddenly woke up. "Boss, did you really decide to do this?"
"Not bad!" The decision has been made. In Soros's eyes, there was no longer indecision, but instead of perseverance and strength, "If what Mr. Zhong said is true, then it is very likely that the United States has reached some agreement with the Russian Federation, and these things will be implemented quickly, so there is not much time left for us, and we will evacuate from there as much as possible." ”
"As for Hong Kong, as long as we have our hands free, we can attack again at any time, right? Stanley, at least in terms of time, that's what I think. As for those who have betrayed us before, this time it will cost them! ”
Druckenmiller nodded heavily, and then strode out of Soros's office.
……
Julian Robertson returned to his office and began to read the day's news, keeping an eye on those investment positions. Among the positions of the Tiger Fund, the US stock market is the largest position, followed by the Russian government bond market, then the Hong Kong stock market, and then some other positions such as precious metals, US Treasuries, etc., and a small amount of cash on hand. Overall, the investment position is more than 90%.
Because Tiger Fund has made a name for itself by relying on accurate stock selection, Julian Robertson has always been the first choice for investment in the U.S. stock market. Although the impact on the annual earnings of the Hong Kong market after this defeat from the Hong Kong market was not very large, he knew that his team would need to work hard in the US stock market to satisfy investors.
"What, this is their mail?"
When there was a crisp reminder from the internal communication software, Julian Robertson habitually turned on the computer and found two analysis reports on the Russian government bond market and political changes lying in the email, which were more detailed and convincing than those commonly circulated on Wall Street, and the final signature blinded his eyes: Helmut. Cole, Margaret. Hilda. Thatcher.
Although these people have already stepped down, Julian Robertson is very clear about the energy of these people, as well as their performance when they are on stage, so when he carefully studied the political analysis report of these two former bigwigs, he couldn't help but gasp, anyone can see that if it is according to the logic of these two, the United States and its allies will never give up Russia, so the subsequent internal investment strategy of the quantum fund is to let Rodney. Jones cleared his position in Hong Kong and transferred the funds to the Russian government bond market.
Despite this method, Julian Robertson did not always follow the contents of the Quantum Fund's email, because he also had a large research team, which was not inferior to the Quantum Fund's team. After sniping the quantum fund in the market several times to make a profit, he gradually became bolder, although the news from Hong Kong came that his eavesdropping system was swept away, but he was convinced that it was implanted in Rodney. Trojans on Jones' computers can still steal a steady stream of messages.
It's just that what he didn't expect at all was that this time it turned out to be a game set by the policy against him, a trap that made him regret it.
"It seems that it is time to move some funds and continue to increase the position of Russian government bonds!" Touching his smooth chin, the tiger muttered to himself. (To be continued......)
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