As the saying goes, no book is written, and during the period of release on the last day of Zhong Shi's trial, it happened that the people of Huatou were enthusiastically discussing the current financial market situation.

From taking a stake in Stanley last year to now, CTIC's research arm has been closely monitoring the deterioration of the U.S. subordinated bond market and its ripple effects on other markets.

In just three months, there have been many things happening around subprime bonds around the world, including the Federal Reserve's 75 basis point rate cut on January 22, New York's insurance regulator's $15 billion bailout to bond insurers, the focus of the G7 finance and central bank governors on the subprime loan crisis, the nationalization of the British Northern Rock Bank, and many other bailout measures.

The crisis caused by subprime mortgage bonds has so far affected all aspects of economic life, first in the housing market, then in the mortgage system, then in intermediaries, then insurers, and as the turmoil continues, a long list of names will be involved.

At present, central banks are doing nothing more than two things: first, by cutting interest rates and injecting cash, to release liquidity to the market to ease the pressure on global money markets; The second is to carry out stricter supervision of the "initiators", including bank capital, mortgages, etc., to prevent similar things from happening again. But no matter how you do it, it is an after-the-fact remedy, and it will not make up for the losses that have been caused.

On 29 February, the Fed introduced a proposal for new rules to prevent high-risk mortgage bonds; On March 13, for the first time, US officials put forward a forecast of a possible "recession"; And today, on the 17th, the rediscount window for commercial banks cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the announcement of these news stimulated the stock market not to fall sharply today, offsetting the negative brought by Bear Stearns' takeover.

And against these messages. CIC researchers are divided into two different groups of thought, one of which is that as central banks in the United States and around the world wake up to the subprime crisis and take timely action, it is a good opportunity for the global market to buy the bottom, although it is still "in mourning". If we wait until the policies of the ministries and central banks to rescue the market officially take effect, the market will reverse, and it is unlikely that you will be able to buy high-quality assets at cheap prices at that time. The other school of thought has the opposite view. They believe that so far, the power and destructive power of the bomb of subordinated bonds are far from being demonstrated, and the market is far from reaching the bottom.

On the surface, the focus of the dispute between the two sides is the macro aspect of the US and even the world economy, but in essence, this issue has also been transformed into the choice of the timing of the purchase of high-quality assets in the US capital market. In fact, there has been a consensus within China Investment to buy Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae stocks or bonds, and now the discussion is about the timing and price of the purchase.

In the course of the argument, both sides cited Bear Stearns as an example. to support your own point of view. On the one hand, Bear Stearns is a victim of subordinated bonds, and such a well-known investment bank cannot avoid the risk of being acquired, let alone other institutions that have not yet revealed their crisis. The other side ridiculed each other, saying that if Huatou could make a bold move and decisively inject capital into Bear Stearns, Bear Stearns might not fall into the hands of JPMorgan Chase, and there is no doubt that Bear Stearns' assets and employees are a valuable asset, as long as it takes time. These things can be translated into long-term growth and stable profits, so this is a good indication that we are missing a great opportunity to buy the bottom.

Nature. Neither side could convince anyone, and in the process of arguing, someone suddenly saw the news on TV about Bell Stone shorting Bear Stearns more than a year ago, and this news made both sides of the argument stunned and unable to say a word.

Naturally, they did not doubt the veracity of these messages, in fact, even when Bear Stearns was in full bloom. There are a lot of bearish remarks about them in the market, but not many institutions dare to short Bear Stearns at that time, perhaps dare to short for such a long time. Because the financial markets are changing rapidly, perhaps the next moment the market can completely reverse, in this case, the person who can short Bear Stearns for a long time is not crazy. Or maybe it's really great wisdom. Obviously, no matter how you look at it, Zhong Shi doesn't look like a crazy person.

Gao Dongfang, who presided over the meeting, was also a headache for the ongoing bickering between the two sides, and the two previous big investments in Bererroque and Stanley did not receive the expected high report, which put him and his team under great pressure due to unanimous criticism by domestic public opinion. This also led him and his team to hesitate to make a move in the current situation of subordinated bonds.

Today's regular meeting, his last before returning to China, is after which he will fly back to China to give a proper investment report to the board of directors of China Investment Corporation, and so far his team has not reached a consensus on when to start working, which makes him even more anxious.

Just after the news about Zhong Shi was broadcast on TV, his heart moved: if he was not in a good position internally, why not ask this gentleman to come over and give some advice? Not to mention that the news about Zhong Shi just now shocked these researchers, just talking about his performance in Hong Kong in 98 and the relationship with that paper are enough to make these people worship them.

Of course, it would have been better if Zhongshi had been able to give a more specific opinion on this issue. Gao Dongfang thought so, and quickly dialed the other party's phone and warmly invited the other party to come here to "sit down".

Because they are all in New York, the distance between them is not too far, half an hour later, Zhong Shi's figure appeared in the conference room on this floor under the contract of Huatou, when Zhong Shi stepped into this carefully arranged conference room, the conference room suddenly resounded with a warm applause.

The room has been clearly refurbished, with traditional Chinese landscape paintings hanging on the walls, a screen painted with bright peonies at the end of the room, and each chair is also an antique rattan chair, and there are even white porcelain teacups on the mahogany round table, with no Western-style decoration in sight. The management of this hotel is also taking great pains to do so.

"Alright, alright, let's not applaud yet." Gao Dongfang smiled all over his face, waved his hand at everyone, walked a few steps quickly, and held Zhong Shi's hands tightly. After greeting each other for a few words, he introduced to everyone in a loud voice, "Gentlemen, this is Mr. Zhong Shi, the guest we invited today, and you all know the other things, so I won't say anything more." ”

There was another round of applause.

"What the hell is going on?" Smiling and shaking his hand at the group of people who were standing up, Zhong Shi walked to the main stage of the round mahogany conference table, sat down beside Gao Dongfang, and asked in a low voice. "It looks like you're having an internal meeting, is it appropriate for me to visit now?"

"Yes, of course it's right!" Gao Dongfang touched the tip of his nose and replied, and at the same time waved his palm downward, and immediately everyone sat back in their seats, "Actually, Mr. Zhong, please come over this time." I want to ask you for some opinions. ”

Zhong Shi nodded and didn't say anything more. Before coming. He had already thought of several possibilities, and this "request for advice" was one of them.

"Well, Mr. Chung, before you come, we were discussing the issue of subprime mortgage bonds, how long the deterioration of the market will continue with the current bailouts. Or whether this crisis is already under control. A well-dressed analyst stood up and briefly introduced what they had just said, and then introduced himself, "I'm Chu Nanxing, a macro strategist at China Investment Corporation. ”

"Subprime crisis?" A playful smile appeared on the corner of Zhong Shi's mouth. He glanced at the other party meaningfully, and then said slowly, "Actually, I haven't studied much on the macro aspect, so I can't answer your question. ”

Hearing the prevarication in Zhong Shi's words, Chu Nanxing's face showed undisguised disappointment, and he sat down stupidly. Although other analysts didn't say anything, there were not a few who had the same reaction as Chu Nanxing.

"Actually, I invited Mr. Zhong to come this time to ask you to evaluate a transaction that we may have deposited Zài, and what they said is actually a marginal issue." Seeing that the scene was about to cool down, Gao Dongfang stood up in a timely manner and explained, "Because this business involves whether the current market timing is appropriate, our analysts want to ask you about your views on the macro economy first." ”

Zhong Shi tilted his head and looked at Gao Dongfang for a while, and after making sure that the other party didn't continue to talk about it, then he said lightly: "I'm sorry, Mr. Gao, I still can't say anything." You also know that if the subject matter is different, the method of analysis is also very different. It's like you can't use the same method of analyzing stocks to analyze bonds, and you can't use the same method of operating futures to operate options, these simple truths should be clearer than me. ”

In fact, Zhong Shi is talking nonsense with his eyes open, because China Investment Fund is a sovereign fund, and it is impossible to operate like retail investors or hedge funds, and the only investment method that can be similar to them is mutual funds, but sovereign funds are more patient than public funds and hold them for a longer period. Therefore, there are not many targets that they can invest in, nothing more than stocks, bonds and other varieties that can be held for a long time.

Seeing Zhong Shi "don't see the rabbit and don't scatter the eagle", Gao Dongfang sighed imperceptibly, knowing that he couldn't do it if he didn't say the specific situation, he shook his head helplessly at the moment, and said: "Mr. Zhong, in fact, we are eyeing the two-room 'Fannie Mae' and 'Freddie Mac' in the United States this time, these two giant companies that do home mortgage loans have fallen due to the subprime debt crisis, and after carefully examining the financial situation of these two companies, we believe that they have long-term investment value." The trouble now, however, is that we can't be sure whether the securities prices of these two companies have reached the bottom according to the current economic situation. ”

"So the purpose of asking macro is, let me predict the stock price of these two companies or the price of other securities?" Zhong Shi was speechless at this answer, daring to love the other party for treating himself as a "magic stick" who could predict the future, and immediately replied solemnly, "I'm sorry, Mr. Gao, I really can't answer your question." If I can predict it, I'm afraid that the funds of the Tianyu Fund will come in. ”

"But Mr. Zhong, you have successfully predicted today's situation in the Bear Stearns incident, and the time span is as long as a year!" An analyst with a mustache at the corner of his mouth quickly stood up and said anxiously, "We're not asking you to predict anything, but how long do you and your colleagues think it will last, based on your current judgment of this crisis?" Don't you want to reveal the slightest opinion? ”

"This is Su Zhan, an industry analyst." Gao Dongfang on the side hurriedly introduced, then sank his face and pretended, "Su Zhan, what are you yelling about, are you so rude?" Mr. Zhong is our honored guest, and he usually can't be invited. Also, don't you know that in '98, Mr. Chung assisted the Hong Kong government in guarding Hong Kong's capital market? Mr. Chung is a well-known patriot, how could he have reservations at such a time? ”

His words seemed to be reprimanding Su Zhan, but in fact, he threw the problem to Zhong Shi, and he also used patriotic righteousness to pressure Zhong Shi.

Zhong Shi naturally knew what he meant, touched the tip of his nose awkwardly, shook his head helplessly, and said with a wry smile: "Mr. Gao, don't button me such a big hat." In fact, we do have internal research on the current subprime bond crisis in the United States, according to our research, this crisis is far from peaking, and although various governments and central banks are actively helping the market, the size of the market and the corresponding derivative market size are too large, and because of the herd effect, so far we think that the rescue of countries is still a drop in the bucket. If you must ask me for my opinion, I can only tell you, and it is better to wait and see. ”

Although the words were very vague, Zhong Shi sincerely and frankly stated the conclusions within the Tianyu Fund without the slightest reservation.

Gao Dongfang's eyes flickered, not knowing what he was thinking. The other analysts did not speak, and for a moment the entire conference room fell into an extremely awkward atmosphere.

"Are you planning to buy a two-house bond?" Seeing that the atmosphere was a little dull, Zhong Shi took the initiative to ask.

"Well, what?" Gao Dongfang turned his head and glanced at Zhong Shi in confusion, and then remembered something, and said again and again, "Yes! Right! It's bonds! (To be continued......)

PS: Thank you for the book friend Zhuang Zhou Fengshen for voting for the monthly ticket! I'm sorry to be a little late today, seeing everyone's enthusiastic support, the author is also ready to work hard to write more, thank you!