Chapter 311: Seoul Summit (5)
It's a big deal, Kevin. Macdonald had no intention of staying in Seoul and flew directly to Dublin overnight with that agreement.
From the appearance of the President of the United States to the participation of representatives of the British Government in the talks, all these signs show that both sides are working together. For a tiny Ireland, the pressure is hard to resist. Now they have before them a question of taking sides.
Not to mention the reaction of the Irish side, just the remarks of the German female chancellor quickly set off a storm in the market.
As the eurozone's core head of state, the female prime minister's rhetoric is at least partly representative of the perception within the EU. If the eventual bailout goes the way she says, private investors who own Ireland's banking sector and even the national debt are likely to suffer huge losses, because the debt restructuring will inevitably lead to a partial write-off.
Moreover, if the EU comes to the rescue, whether the crisis will spread to other countries is also a question in everyone's mind.
With this two-pronged approach, the market immediately reacted by selling all kinds of Irish bonds in the market as much as possible, while buying CDS as a hedge.
Ireland's 10-year yield topped 9% shortly after Merkel's speech, an outrageous high. However, this is not the end of the story, and it will soon be in the middle of the day, and it will go straight to the 10%.
If it were to break 10 per cent, that would mean that at the current market yield, if the Irish government were to issue a new 10-year bond, it would be able to raise half as much money as it was on the note. That is, if they want to raise 10 billion euros in the long term, then they will have to issue about 20 billion euros in bonds to be able to raise enough.
This number is very scary.
Fortunately, despite the irrational panic in the market, some institutions have chosen to take advantage of the fire and buy Irish government bonds in the market. What they are betting on is that perhaps the G20 summit will not turn a blind eye to this, which also prevented Ireland from breaking 10% on this day and becoming the first-highest yielding government bond ever.
Even if it doesn't break 10 percent, the government has a debt of more than 9 percent, making it impossible for the Irish government to issue new bonds on the international market, because the pressure to raise funds is too great for them to bear.
Meanwhile. Bonds in Spain, Portugal, Greece and other countries have also suffered varying degrees of sell-offs, which is related to the second concern above, and investors fear that the bond crisis will once again spread to Europe.
However, Jong Seok did not know all this for the time being, and after participating in the three-way talks, before he could return to the hotel, he was invited by Min Yusheng's people to the Korea Development Bank.
The Korea Development Bank, also in Yeouido, near the Korean National Assembly, is a boxy and featureless building. Because they are state-owned banks, they are not as flamboyant as other financial institutions.
After respectfully inviting Zhong Shi into his governor's office. Min Yusheng slammed the door shut, and began to communicate humbly and seriously.
"Mr. Chung, how likely do you think there is a problem with the Irish government?"
Min Yusheng wiped the sweat from his forehead and asked with a pale face, "This time, there is no participation of outsiders in this meeting, I want to hear your sincere words." ”
Because Tianyu Fund holds a part of the shares of Korea Development Bank, to some extent, Min Yusheng and Jong Seok are also agents and owners. However, because the majority shareholder is the South Korean government. So in fact, Min Yusheng still represents the South Korean government.
"What, what's wrong?"
Zhong Shi was a little confused. But one can imagine how the market will react to Merkel's remarks. Seeing Min Yusheng so out of shape, he guessed a few points.
"What, you don't know yet?"
Regarding Zhong Shi's question, Min Yusheng looked surprised. After scanning Zhong Shi's face a few times with a suspicious look, he said with a wry smile, "Mr. Zhong, it's a very moment now, don't joke anymore." Soon the yield on Irish government bonds broke through 10%. ”
“10%?”
Zhong Shi was also taken aback. Asked rhetorically, "Has it already exceeded 10%?" It's horrible! ”
Glancing at Zhong Shi speechlessly, Min Yusheng didn't know what to say for a while. He knew very well that this crisis was provoked by Zhong Shi's group of people, although today's situation was definitely not caused by them, but he knew very well that Zhong Shi and the others were playing a very big conspiracy.
"How much of the Irish national debt do you have now?"
Looking at Min Yusheng's eyes, Zhong Shi realized, no longer dodged the flickering with him, and asked directly to the point, "Including the five-year and ten-year treasury bonds, how much does the Industrial Bank hold?" ”
"About 15 billion euros!"
Min Yusheng replied without thinking, but the next moment he realized something, twisted and pinched for a long time, and then said, "Actually, some are not our positions, they are BOK's assets." ”
BOK, i.e. Bank of Korea, the central bank of South Korea.
Logically speaking, BOK belongs to the Central Bank of South Korea, not private investors, and even if the EU restructurs Ireland in the future, they will be able to get their share. But the problem now is that even if they can get the principal and interest they deserve in the future, this part of the asset is a trading position in BOK, which means that they cannot hold it until maturity.
This is why Min Yusheng is in such a hurry.
"So much?"
Zhong Shi's brows furrowed involuntarily, "This number is quite large, how can you hold so many positions?" ”
Indeed, compared to bonds from other countries, Ireland's bonds were originally concentrated in the European banking sector, and the Asian banking sector rarely reached there. Now BOK and Korea Development Bank hold so many positions, I have to say that this is an aggressive thing.
"Because foreign exchange reserves need to be diversified!"
Min Yusheng unraveled Zhong Shi's contradiction with one sentence.
In recent years, due to the vigorous development of South Korea's export industry, their exchange rate policy has also begun to be adjusted in a targeted manner. In recent years, they have gradually moved away from the foreign exchange policy of a single peg to the US dollar, and have begun to consciously buy the currencies of major trading countries in the market for settlement. Among them, euro assets and RMB assets have become their new upstarts.
"The other point is that when it comes to choosing euro assets, they think that if Ireland has a debt crisis, the EU will not sit idly by. So instead of fearing the market, it is better to take the opportunity to buy the bottom. So in the last three months, they've been crazy about buying so many positions, and the more they buy, the more they're falling now, and it's already scorching them. ”
"If it's the end of the year. I think the governor of the central bank will leave the class immediately! ”
Min Yusheng eventually added, "You are also very aware that central bank governors are appointed by the president, and there is simply no time for them to hold until the debt matures." So now, both they and we are under tremendous pressure from the Blue House. ”
"So what do you want?"
Jongseok is well aware that the South Koreans are starting to get anxious, and combined with the news that Ireland may leave the eurozone, it makes the South Koreans feel like the world is falling apart.
Because it has long been within the scope of protection of the United States. This has led to a deified impression of Americans in South Koreans, especially at the top, where this view is more common and obvious. So when Min Yu-sung passed the news of the United States' intention to intervene in Ireland to the South Korean government, they realized that something was wrong.
Although it is an alliance, the South Korean government does not simply assume that if Ireland leaves the eurozone, the US government will guarantee its investment there. So whether Ireland chooses the EU or the United States in the future, they will have to make a break with the euro assets on hand, at least the Irish government bonds.
"We're looking for a buyer!"
Min Yusheng said bluntly. "We need to find a buyer who can take so many positions and sell these assets as soon as possible! Mr. Chung. Can you help us with this? ”
As the so-called rush to the doctor in a hurry, the South Korean side actually regarded Zhongshi as a life-saving straw. You know, this guy is the culprit of the whole thing, and now they're asking him for help.
I have to say that the South Korean side is really messed up!
"15 billion euros of assets, if put into the market in the short term, will inevitably lead to a huge shock. I can't even sell it at the current price. We are well aware that unless it is a big customer, it is impossible not to alarm the market. ”
Min continued, "We want to find buyers who have the strength, even if they make some concessions on price. We are also willing. ”
At 15 billion euros in assets, nearly one-tenth of the national debt of Ireland. Although Bell Stone has a position of about 3 billion euros to hedge, it is also quite difficult to eat the 12 billion euros of Irish government bonds in one bite.
Seeing Zhong Shi frowning, Min Yusheng understood after a little thought, and immediately patted his chest and said: "We don't want Tianyu Fund to make a move, we are thinking about whether we can let the central bank of Huaxia make a move, you must know that their foreign exchange reserves are the first in the world." ”
It turned out to be this wishful thinking!
Zhong Shi instantly understood, and glanced at the other party lightly, "Want to pass on the risk?" ”
Min Yusheng smiled hesitantly.
"It's impossible!"
Zhong Shi's head shook like a rattle, "If I drag Huaxia's central bank into the water in this matter, then I will have no place in Huaxia in the future, don't even think about it." He chose to flatly refuse.
"Recently, I heard that Ireland is talking to the EU in private, but both sides have denied it!"
Min Yusheng was in a hurry, and he didn't care about anything when he spoke, so he directly opened his hole cards, "But according to the information and analysis we have obtained, this matter should be impossible." If you do succeed, I am afraid that this part of the assets will suffer a significant loss. ”
“……”
Zhong Shi lowered his head in contemplation, and did not speak for a long time. After a full ten minutes, he looked up again, "I have a reliable buyer who can eat your position, but not now!" ”
"When was that?"
Min Yusheng was so happy in his heart that he didn't even bother to ask the other party's name, and asked directly, "When is the opportunity to acquire?" ”
"When Ireland makes a choice!"
Zhong Shi was also very happy, and gave a direct answer, "You guys are in such a hurry, you must accept a certain discount." In addition, I do not think that the G20 leaders will sit idly by and ignore this, because they will not be able to let the crisis spread. So I think as early as tomorrow, they're going to make a statement to reassure the markets, and then Ireland's government bond yields will fall sharply, and it's not too late for you to think about whether to make a move. ”
"We've already taken this into account!"
Min Yusheng said without thinking, "Even if they jointly issued a statement, it could not stop the market's worries in the slightest." This time we are determined to sell, even if the EU finally makes a move, we will sell this batch of assets! ”
He said without a trace of hesitation, his expression was full of determination, it seemed that at least he had been officially authorized, otherwise he would not have behaved so resolutely.
"Alright, sell it to me!"
Zhong Shi slapped the table and said happily, "Yes, the buyer I just mentioned is me, Tianyu Fund!" ”
"What?"
Min Yusheng's face first showed an incredible look, but the next moment it dawned on him, "Yes, only you can hold the expiration in this situation and guarantee to pay it in full!" (To be continued.) )
PS: Thank you for the reward that came to the early bloom of the flowers! I can't do it anymore.,It's finally desperately rushed out.,The author will try his best to arrange the time.,Strive to write well.,Continue to be cheeky and hope that everyone will actively vote for it.,Recommend votes to be a little more powerful to have a good effect.,Thank you~