On Tuesday, November 15, copper futures opened at $2,747 and then slowly began to rise, reaching $2,760 by noon.

"How's it going in the morning?" After finishing the morning's operation, Zhong Shi looked at the traders who were all slumped on the sofa chairs, and couldn't help but ask with some wicked taste.

The four of them just hummed, and they were too tired to speak. After a long time, Lu Xisheng reluctantly straightened up and replied weakly: "Zhong Sheng, the market in the morning is too complicated, and it was not easy for a few of us to establish a long position of 2,500 hands, and at the same time to get out of a low position of 2,500 hands at the position of $2,750. In the past, when I listened to your orders, I thought that trading was nothing more than that, but now it seems that this is indeed not the case. ”

Hearing him say this, the other three traders nodded their heads, clearly agreeing with him.

Unlike usual, today Zhongshi let them operate, and the limit was 5,000 lots, that is, $50 million in trading, which made several traders tremble. Even if they had discussed the strategy yesterday, as soon as they arrived in the market, they really found that the strategies they had formulated could not keep up with the changes in the market. Just when they thought that the price would be controlled within the set haode range, a large buy order suddenly appeared, which instantly pushed the price of copper futures to $2,770, and at that time, several of them reacted quickly and directly threw 1,000 hands of closing orders to the market before barely hitting the price back to $2,750.

Now that a few people think about it, they are still a little frightened. Because once the price breaks through $2,780, then all their strategies will be ineffective.

"In fact, you have done a good job, both executing the original strategy and successfully dealing with the unexpected situation in the market. If I'm not mistaken, the rally in the morning should have been the rhythm of some bulls taking advantage of the opportunity to ship, and if it weren't for your tough efforts to knock down their upward momentum, the price should have broken through $2,780. Although it was said that it was good to let these traders operate, Zhong Shi and Andrew still watched from the sidelines, and made a few remarks from time to time.

"So according to Mr. Zhong's opinion, what will happen to the market in the afternoon?" A few traders were in their hearts. It took a long time to come to his senses. Among them, Zhao Shangming, who seemed to be more clever, took the opportunity to ask.

Zhong Shi and Andrew glanced at each other, and they all smiled, he touched his smooth chin, and said with some nonsensical answers: "Judging by the sudden rise in the morning." The lot size of the long buy should be higher than the lot you ordered. So there was a sudden spike on the board. But later. After your 1,000 lots of long positions, they did not continue to attack for a while, and the bears saw the opportunity. When the price of copper futures slowed down, it suppressed it, making the price repeated. However, have you noticed that when the current copper price fell to $2,740, the price was quickly supported, which naturally had the reason for your low absorption, but more importantly, there was another bull in the market that was strongly supported at the low level, otherwise the copper price would definitely fall below $2,740. ”

The four traders looked at each other, they didn't expect that there were so many doorways in the fleeting market, after all, they only looked at the problem from the peak and trough of a certain wave, and the changes at the bottom and peak were not within the scope of their attention.

In fact, people who focus on the peaks and troughs are often the ones who have the ability to turn the market around, and Bell Stone is just that.

Zhao Shangming lowered his head and thought about it, and after a long time, a sentence suddenly popped up: "Mr. Zhong, you haven't said how to operate in the afternoon?" ”

Zhong Shi was speechless for a moment, and was stunned for a long time before patiently explaining: "You still don't understand this? Since there is long support at the low level, then you can rest assured and boldly go long, and operate according to the original strategy. ”

"What about the bulls who pulled up? Could it be that it is in league with the bulls who are supporting at the low level? Zhao Shangming still asked unrelentingly.

"It may or may not be." Zhong Shi thought for a while and gave a plausible answer, "For the time being, I don't understand the intention of the bulls who pulled up, they have many possibilities, it depends on the follow-up operation." But the support for the low level is real, if you don't believe it, you can throw a large closing order after the afternoon opening to test them! ”

"Temptation?" The attention of the four traders was all attracted, and Ampit, one of them, scratched his head and asked with some confusion.

"Opened in the afternoon with the price around $2,750. If you throw out 2,000 lots of closing orders in the market at once, the price will inevitably fall sharply, and the intention of the other bulls will be self-evident, even if there are two bulls operating in the market in the morning, then one of them will have to react, because if they do not act, the morning rally will be in vain. At that time, they will only be left with thousands of long positions at a high level. And if it is a bull, it is very likely that it will not choose, and when the time comes, the bears will take the opportunity to attack, and it is very likely that they will recoup the gains of the past two days. ”

"So, the market will definitely fall in the afternoon?" Ampitt rolled her eyes and came to such a slightly simple conclusion.

Zhong Shi smiled dumbly, and then explained speechlessly: "There are various possibilities in the market, in fact, sometimes the contest is the contest of people's hearts, I don't know if you have studied game theory, there is a classic example, that is, the prisoner's dilemma." That is, two prisoners are held in different cells, and they can choose their optimal strategy through different conditions, and this optimal strategy is to confess. ”

"Game theory? Have you heard of some of them, it seems that an economist in Princeton has a special book, which is also related to our futures operations? Zhou Shijie, the most educated of the four traders, frowned and thought about it, and said with some uncertainty after a long time.

"The current situation is somewhat similar to the prisoner model, where our Shili chooses to cooperate with other bulls. It is possible to produce an equilibrium result, which is optimal for all parties. Choosing to 'punish' another participant, although once or twice will be detrimental to both parties, in the repeated prisoner's dilemma, both parties will eventually cooperate because of this 'punishment'. In the final analysis, in addition to the fundamentals, futures operation is a contest between people's hearts, and how to choose the optimal strategy in a complex situation is the application of game theory in futures. Of course, if we operate with a full position, we can completely leave out other participants in the market. As the only one who makes decisions. At that time, there will be no gambling anymore. Zhong Shi shook his head slightly and said proudly.

The game mentioned here is naturally a game between people who are doing the same direction as him. And with the amount of money he has at the moment, he is indeed qualified to say such things. And in addition to these funds. He also reserved a back-up move. I believe that this trick will definitely give the market a big surprise.

"In that case, let's test the reaction of others in the afternoon." Seeing Zhong Shi's proud look on his face, several traders had confidence in their hearts. They glanced at each other and made up their minds to follow the temptation that Zhong Shi had spoken of in the afternoon.

……

As soon as the market opened in the afternoon, a large amount of long closing orders appeared in the market, and these sell orders appeared in the market, which immediately caused a violent reaction in the market. The long ones immediately found it easy to buy contracts, which made them start to suffer from gains and losses, while the short sellers found that the price of copper futures fell one after another, even falling below the position of two or three dollars in a minute, and although they did not know what to do, they lost no time in opening new short positions here.

Soon, the price of copper futures fell to $2,740, and unsurprisingly, these closing orders met strong buy orders here, and they were traded in the form of multiple swaps. The price of copper futures was pinned to $2,740 and after hovering for a while, it began to go on the offensive and turned to Xiangshang to attack.

The volume reached its maximum of the day at $2,745, where the original positions began to be closed, and the longs and the reacting followers also took out old positions here in order to release more funds to open new positions, and the two sides closed their positions on a large scale.

Then copper futures prices began to rise again, only this time at a much slower pace than the morning rally, until the time of the Zuihou close, the price of copper futures rose to $2,758, only $18 higher than the opening price.

……

As for the Carr Fund, after opening another 1,000 short positions at $2,740, they have managed to raise the average opening price to $2,720 and now lose $950 per contract and $1.9 million on all positions, much to the dismay of some traders.

"Carl, are we thinking about reducing our positions?" After the market closed, Jerry asked worriedly.

Carl's face was calm, and he couldn't see any emotional fluctuations, as if it wasn't his fund that was losing money. After hearing Jerry's words, he said slowly, "Jerry, take it easy. The losses are still within our acceptable range, and there are no margin calls on the broker's side, so why should we mess with ourselves. ”

"But ......"

"Nothing!" Carl suddenly became agitated, pointed to the computer screen and shouted in a heaping voice, "Jerry, my good fellow, didn't you see that?" In the afternoon market, the bulls have carried out a large-scale liquidation, I believe they have completely withdrawn from the market, and tomorrow is the option exercise day, when more bears enter the market, we will form a protection, and there will be more bulls will choose to leave tomorrow. ”

"Jerry, did you see that? Tomorrow is the time for the market to reverse, and I dare to boldly predict that the price will definitely fall to $2,700 tomorrow, or even lower. Don't look at us as losing money now, wait until tomorrow by this time, I can guarantee that we will be profitable on our books. Jerry, Jerry, these indicators and candlestick charts are exactly following your analysis, you should support me! ”

Looking at Carl, who suddenly lost his temper, Jerry sighed secretly and returned to his seat sullenly. He knew very well in his heart that Carl was also under huge psychological pressure, otherwise he would not suddenly become like this.

"How's that, man, what did he say?" As soon as Jerry sat down, a trader next to him immediately came up, pouted at Carl's position, and asked a little anxiously.

Jerry shrugged his shoulders, spread his hands, and reluctantly repeated Carl's words.

But how does he know that tomorrow's option exercise will be dominated by shorts? What if there are more long options than short options announced? Hearing Jerry say this, the other traders began to discuss it, and one of their main concerns was the execution of the option tomorrow.

"I'm afraid only God knows about this question." Jerry leaned heavily into his chair and thought to himself.

Then he stood up and said to his bewildered colleagues: "Guys, in order to increase the risk resistance of our positions, we must increase the average price as much as possible. Although we only have partial permissions, you can sell the short position at the low level and open a short position at the high level, and do your best to do it. (To be continued......)

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