Chapter 102: Falling Short (Part II)
"Two generals, don't quarrel!" Burke couldn't help it, he was a scientist, not a soldier, and an argument would not solve the problem at all. "Using the latest data, I used Professor Luo Jinyong's mathematical model to calculate that the 334 debris will not hit the earth."
"What?" Stark looked surprised.
"According to the latest available orbital data, the orbital projection plane of the 334 debris coincides with the Earth profile by less than 40 percent. Because we did not take into account the curvature of the Earth's surface, and the previously predicted impact point was actually about 3,000 kilometers behind the preset impact profile. Taking these factors into account, the probability of debris 334 hitting the Earth without changing its orbit is only seven percent. ”
"But it's still possible to hit the Earth."
"This is the result of the orbit not changing, and the orbit of the 334 debris will not deviate less than 11 degrees after entering the atmosphere. Combining these data, new conclusions can be drawn. Debris 334 will not hit the Earth and will pass at an altitude of about seventy kilometers above the ground. ”
"Just skimming?"
"The debris travels at 350 kilometers per second before it enters the atmosphere, and even if it slows down in the atmosphere, its speed is still much higher than the second cosmic velocity. Taking into account the deceleration effect of the Earth's gravity, the speed of the 334 debris is still above 300 kilometers per second when it is detached from the Earth's gravitational field. As expected, debris 334 will become a comet orbiting the Sun in a large elliptical orbit, and the next approach to Earth will be hundreds of years away. Presumably, we will have other ways to deal with the threat when the time comes. ”
Obviously, no one thinks about what will happen hundreds of years from now.
Burke explained in detail, and most of the chiefs of the General Staff believed it. Don't forget, on the Scientific Advisory Board, Burke is the best astronomer and astrophysicist. In astronomy, Burke surpassed Luo Jinyong, and his arguments were more convincing.
It's just that Stark doesn't seem to believe it. "Burke, you have to know the way, and you are responsible for what you say."
"Professor Luo Jinyong has stepped down, and now I am temporarily the head of the Scientific Advisory Board, and I will be responsible for what I say."
"You ......"
"General Stark, don't you trust Professor Burke?" Yang Fanglie smiled and said, "If Luo Jinyong raised it, we can all understand if you question it, but Professor Burke is the chief scientific advisor of the United States, what else is there to doubt about his words?" ”
"Generals, there are still thirty seconds to go!" Burke reminded ten chiefs of the General Staff.
Stark gritted his teeth and said, "Since Professor Burke has judged that the fragments of 334 will not hit the Earth, then follow his advice." ”
Time was short, and it was clearly impossible to vote.
At this time, Yang Fanglie made a gesture towards Wei Longzheng with his left hand that was placed outside the camera's shooting range, and now he had to trust Burke.
Immediately, the second interception began.
All six super-nuclear warheads have locked onto their targets and launched their final sprint towards the fragments.
Yang Fanglie did not let Yuan Dezhi, who was personally in charge of the Houyi project, use the fourth nuclear warhead, not because he completely trusted Burke, but in order to keep a chance.
The second interception is not the same as the first, that is, it is not a head-on interception, but an interception in the form of pursuit.
The seven nuclear warheads launched by China and Russia first reached a distance of about 500,000 kilometers from the earth at a speed of 100 kilometers per second, and then turned to fly. Because the third stage of the Arrow launch vehicle can accelerate the nuclear warhead from 10 kilometers per second to 600 kilometers per second, after the reversing, the remaining fuel can also accelerate the nuclear warhead to 410 kilometers per second, exceeding the speed of 350 kilometers per second of the debris.
The lower limit of interception calculated by Luo Jinyong is 100,000 kilometers, so there is still a chance to make a third interception.
Because all six nuclear warheads locked onto their targets a few minutes in advance and then began to maneuver in orbit to shorten the distance to the debris, the six nuclear warheads detonated almost simultaneously.
The interception distance is exactly 300,000 kilometers.
If the interception fails, the debris will reach a distance of 100,000 kilometers from Earth after 570 seconds, so the interception results must be screened during this time.
It's just that this has nothing to do with the Planetary Defense Council, only with China.
The reason is that the whole world believes that all the nuclear warheads have been used, so the Planetary Defense Council will not count on a third interception.
At this time, Yang Fanglie was a little nervous.
He must hope that all six interceptions will be successful, otherwise the matter of China's private construction of a fourth super-nuclear warhead will be exposed, which will definitely lead to the disintegration of the Planetary Defense Council.
In addition, Yang Fanglie also hopes that Burke's inference is accurate.
However, there is often a big difference between reality and hope.
It didn't take much effort for Luo Jinyong to pack up his personal belongings, which he didn't have much, and he didn't have any friends on the scientific advisory board.
Zhang Xiaogang has been sitting at his desk, learning about the situation outside through Luo Jinyong's communication equipment.
The computer screen flashed a few times, and then a video of Yuan Dezhi appeared.
"Old Yuan, who are you?"
"Zhang Xiaogang, why are you, is Luo Jinyong here?"
"Yes, how are you ......" Zhang Xiaogang was very surprised. Luo Jinyong's communication system has the highest confidentiality authority, and it is impossible to start video communication equipment from the outside.
"Don't ask so much, let Luo Jinyong come over."
Zhang Xiaogang didn't ask much, and beckoned Luo Jinyong over. There must be a backdoor in the communication system, and Yuan Dezhi will not use this to control Luo Jinyong's computer unless it is absolutely necessary.
"Director Yuan, ...... are you?"
"Professor, Debris 0 did not completely deviate from the impact trajectory and did not disintegrate."
"What?" Zhang Xiaogang immediately stood up and gave up his position to Luo Jinyong. "What the hell is going on?"
Because only 1,134 fragments were detected and numbered in turn, the last fragment was given a "0" number.
Fragment 0 is the fragment with the smallest area, the most mass, and the greatest threat.
"The second interception has just been carried out, the nuclear warhead was detonated on the front side of the No. 0 fragment, and the angle between the center of mass of the explosion point and the orbit was about 30 degrees, which is not much different from your pre-estimate, but after the explosion, the orbital declination angle of the No. 0 fragment did not exceed 7.7 degrees, only 3.2 degrees."
"Where's the point of impact?" Luo Jinyong was already sweating profusely.
Something must have gone wrong, perhaps the explosion point was too far away from the fragments, or the mass of the fragments was more than one million tonnes estimated.
If nothing goes wrong, the orbital declination of Debris 0 will exceed 7.7 degrees.
This means that Debris 0 will pass very close to Earth, perhaps less than a hundred kilometers, and will not hit Earth.
For this crucial interception, Luo Jinyong repeatedly made dozens of calculations, and also used domestic supercomputers to simulate. Because he did not know the mass of the fragments, Luo Jinyong adopted a clumsy method, that is, starting from 100,000 tons, taking every 100,000 tons as a stage, until 1.5 million tons, and formulated a total of 15 sets of interception plans, each of which made clear requirements for the detonation position of the nuclear warhead. After Burke gave the mass estimation results of the No. 0 fragment, Yuan Dezhi, who was in charge of the Houyi project, chose the most suitable interception plan.
"The exact location of the impact point is still being calculated, and now it can only be roughly judged in the western Pacific Ocean."
"Close to our homeland?"
"The western edge of the impact area is less than 1,000 kilometers from the mainland of our country, and the eastern edge is less than 3,000 kilometers, and the debris has not disintegrated."
Luo Jinyong was silent, or suddenly calmed down.
Debris 0 directly hit the Earth, even if it vaporized nine-tenths of its mass after entering the atmosphere, and the absolute destruction of half of it was as high as 3,000 kilometers. If we take the midpoint of the impact area, the area along the eastern coast of China extending 1,000 kilometers inland is within the destruction zone!
There are megacities such as Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Nanjing in this region, and 800 million people live!
Because the shape of the No. 0 fragment is relatively regular, it is impossible to vaporize the mass in the atmosphere to reach 9/10, or maybe not even half. If the mass at the time of impact was 500,000 tons, more than half of the mainland of China would be affected.
"Professor......" Yuan Dezhi was obviously a little flustered.
"What is the decision of the Planetary Defense Council, and has it adopted my proposed interception plan?"
"Burke assured at the last moment that the 334 debris would not hit Earth, and Stark relented and accepted the interception plan you proposed."
"Burke made a guarantee?"
Yuan Dezhi nodded and said, "Now, the United States is monitoring the No. 334 debris, but it will soon be found that the No. 0 debris has not been destroyed." ”
"On what basis did Burke make a guarantee?"
"I don't know what to do, he came up with some data, but it doesn't seem to have anything to do with you. Professor, I can't care so much now. Whether or not the 334 debris hits the Earth has nothing to do with us. If we can't intercept Debris 0, I'm afraid the fate of human civilization will have nothing to do with us. ”
"I'm trying to figure it out."
"Hurry up, there's no time."
"Old Yuan, if you can't come in a hurry, isn't it just a death, what are you afraid of?" Zhang Xiaogang withstood the pressure for Luo Jinyong.
"Director Yuan, I need more comprehensive data."
"It's being processed, and it's going to be transferred to your computer right away."
"Also, give me five minutes."
"Five minutes? There are five minutes and forty-seven seconds left......"
"All I need is five minutes."
Yuan Dezhi didn't ramble anymore, forty-seven seconds was enough to launch a third interception.
Zhang Xiaogang was very knowledgeable, not only did he not ask anything, but also took the initiative to help Luo Jinyong process the data he received, so that Luo Jinyong could concentrate on the most important thing.
There is also a super-nuclear warhead, which can also make an interception.
This is also the most reluctant!
It's just that Luo Jinyong didn't use up five minutes, and only took four minutes and forty seconds.
"Professor......
"The data needed for the interception is out, so let's do it now."
"Impact?" Yuan Dezhi had already received the message sent to him by Luo Jinyong.
"This is the most difficult opportunity, we can't take risks, but we have to. One can only hope that the nuclear warhead will accurately hit the fragments and then detonate. If we continue to use close detonation, there is a high risk that we will suffer another failure, and it is clear that we will not have a fourth chance to intercept. ”
Yuan Dezhi didn't say anything more, and sent the data to the technical officer who controlled the nuclear warhead.
At this time, the Hubble-2 telescope had found fragment 0, and the U.S. military command center was in chaos, and even Howard, who had always been calm, was at a loss.
If it is possible for Debris 334 to avoid the Earth, Debris 0 will definitely hit the Earth!
The mass of this piece of debris is up to one million tons, and if the mass is not reduced before the impact, then the energy released by the impact is enough to trigger a mass extinction!
Sixty-five million years ago, there was a similar mass extinction.
In that catastrophe caused by an asteroid hitting the Earth, dinosaurs became victims.
Even the most determined scientist would not believe that humans are more capable of surviving than dinosaurs and can escape a catastrophe of comparable proportions.
Even if a few people survive, it means billions of people will die!
A lot of people are desperate.
Debris 0 will fly 100,000 kilometers in five minutes.
Could it be that this will be the last five minutes of humanity?