Chapter 945
Although this hunt can't stop the issuance of the euro in the end, if you can't do it once, you can't do it a second time, anyway, you can't let it grow, and threaten the status of the dollar boss, it's really touching and dying! And the death is ugly.
The financial defeat was worse than the atomic bombing, and the currency wars waged by the United States in other regions have been experienced and playful, and they have been successful time and time again.
It's really bloodless, and it's a lot of money!
Either you die or I die.
At the same time, the office of Cheng Shigui in Hong Kong was brightly lit, and presumably other financial institutions were the same, and they had been sleepless all night since September.
Cheng Shigui and Wu Zhihong, sitting at their desks, looked at the computer screen from time to time, raised their wine glasses and smiled, "Cheers!" "Celebrate their victory on the lira.
The two took a sip of red wine, Cheng Shigui's slender fingers gently held the wine glass and shook it, and the wine shook gently and regularly.
"Do you think Germany will save Britain!" Wu Zhihong frowned lightly and said, "Yesterday, Germany officially announced that the discount rate would be reduced by half a percentage point, from 8.75% to 8.25%, which is the first interest rate cut in Germany in five years. ”
"It's late! Doing so will only cause more panic! Phew! The foreign exchange market has been the first to react, and the pound exchange rate has been falling, and the comparison of the pound with the mark has broken through three lines of defense to reach 1 pound equal to 2.80 marks.
Since July, Germany has raised the discount rate and lit the fuse, so Finland is a lit canoe full of firewood and grass, and from Italy it is a small burning sampan. What is called burning the company camp, this is, it is irreparable. Changes in the market are subtle, and once confidence is shaken and the general trend has been achieved, the trend of exchange rate movements will be difficult to stop. Cheng Shigui squinted his eyes and said intoxicated.
"Besides, Germany is too busy to take care of itself, how can it be qualified to save others. With the fall of the Berlin Wall in November 1989, many thought it was new. A united Germany will rise and prosper rapidly.
However, the new Germany was bound to go through a period of economic constraints due to the reconstruction of the former East Germany. Germany will be more concerned about its own economic problems than helping other European countries through economic difficulties. This would have disastrous consequences for the economies and currencies of other European countries. "Cheng Shigui said." As for the Yankees poking knives in the back, he often does it, and a united and strong Europe is not in the interests of the Americans.
Who threatens American interests. He's going to kill him without hesitation. It's like Japan two years ago. ”
The first to fall in this war was Finland in Northern Europe. After Germany raised interest rates. The Finns exchanged the Finnish mark for the German mark, and in order to maintain the Finnish mark to the German mark, the Bank of Finland had to sell the German mark to buy the Finnish mark. But the Bank of Finland's reserves of Deutsche marks were very limited and were quickly depleted. In September, the Bank of Finland was no longer able to maintain the Finnish mark against the Deutsche mark. On September 8, the Finnish government was forced to declare that the Finnish mark was decoupled from the Deutsche mark and floated freely.
The British and French governments were deeply concerned about the withdrawal of the Finnish mark and suggested that Germany appropriately reduce interest rates to reduce the pressure on the currencies of other member countries to depreciate, but the German government considered the decoupling of the Finnish mark to be trivial and rejected the proposal of Britain and France. On September 11, Bundesbank President Schlesinger even publicly announced that Germany would never lower interest rates, which further boosted the confidence of speculators.
Among the countries of Western Europe, Italy is significantly weaker than Britain, France, Germany and other countries in terms of comprehensive national strength, and the Italian lira has always been regarded as a 'soft currency'. The withdrawal of the Finnish mark made the Italian lira stand out, and international capital decided to attack the lira, just like a lion hunting for the old, weak, sick and disabled in its prey.
Hunting always starts with the weak, and persimmons have to pick soft pinching.
Prior to this, international capital was already pushing for the depreciation of the Italian lira and creating a trap for the depreciation of the lira. There are many ways to speculate on the depreciation of the lira, the simplest is to first borrow a large amount of lira in the market, and then sell it at a high level to suppress the exchange rate of the lira, and then buy it back to repay the loan after the lira depreciates. The second is to use foreign exchange options, sign a lira put option at the current high market price, and exercise the option to make a profit after the lira depreciates. In response to the blow to the Italian lira, Moody's, a well-known rating agency, downgraded Italy's debt rating from AA1 to AA3 in July. To add insult to injury.
In order to maintain the exchange rate of the lira against the Deutsche mark, Italy had to repeatedly raise the interest rate on the lira. On September 7 and 9, Italy raised the bank discount rate twice in a row, from 12% to 15%. But Italy's fragile economy cannot afford such high interest rates, and raising interest rates not only does not boost confidence in the lira, but instead raises fears that high interest rates will damage the Italian economy, and the lira continues to depreciate. On 12 September, the lira fell to the lower limit of the Euromonetary system's exchange rate mechanism against the Deutsche Mark. On 13 September, the European Community announced an adjustment to the exchange rates of 11 currencies, with the Italian lira depreciating by 3.5 per cent, while the other 10 currencies appreciated by 3.5 per cent, with the lira depreciating by 7 per cent in real terms.
Even with a 7% depreciation, the lira is still overvalued, and speculators continue to launch a fierce attack and frantically sell the lira. Moreover, the previous depreciation of the lira by 7% has made international capital reap a lot, which has only increased the bullets of international capital to continue to attack the lira. The Bank of Italy was forced to buy large quantities of the lira in order to maintain the stability of the lira's exchange rate. After less than a week of fierce fighting, the Bank of Italy has almost depleted its 40 billion Deutsche Mark foreign exchange reserves and can no longer maintain the lira's exchange rate. Today, I had to put up a white flag and surrender.
"On the 10th, the Wall Street Journal published an interview with Schlesinger, the governor of the German Central Bank, in which he flickered and mentioned: "The problem of instability in the European monetary system can only be solved by the depreciation of the currencies of some countries...... although he did not mention which countries are 'some countries', but for the financial predators who smell blood, this hint is enough."
Wu Zhihong said with a smile, "The Germans have abandoned Britain and lifted the protection of the British pound. It is a great irony that when Germany invaded Britain in World War II, the British relied on the help of the Americans to achieve victory. But when London was subjected to a currency attack by the United States, the British needed to be protected by the Germans in order to hold the pound! ”
"There are only eternal interests between nations." Cheng Shigui said coldly. "The European exchange rate system, a new monetary system created by the countries of Western Europe since Britain joined in the 90s. At that moment Britain made a decisive mistake. ”
In view of his mistakes, especially at the time of the Maastricht Treaty, it was foreseeable that the European exchange rate system would be difficult to harmonize because of the economic power of each country and its national interests.
Once some of the "chains" that make up the European exchange rate system are loosened, the financial predators on Wall Street, like sharks that smell blood, will take advantage of the situation and attack these loose "chains", while other trends will think that followers like Cheng Shigui and others will also get moved, making the exchange rate more volatile, and in the end, relying on the wind-chasing mechanism is much greater than the market can accept them, until the whole system is destroyed.
The UK economy is in a state of long-term recession and is in a difficult situation, and it is impossible for the UK to maintain a policy of high interest rates, and the only feasible way to stimulate the country's economic development is to lower interest rates. But if Germany's interest rates are not lowered, and the UK unilaterally cuts them, it will weaken the pound and force Britain to withdraw from the European exchange rate system.
Although Germany had already lowered its discount rate yesterday, it was too late and the market was completely demoralized.
Besides, Wall Street, Cheng Shigui and other speculators have been expanding the size of their positions over the past few months in preparation for sniping at the pound.
"This battle made Soros." Wu Zhihong's slender legs were crossed and placed on the desk, with a seemingly absent smile on the corner of his mouth.
"Why do you want to stand in the spotlight and accept the worship of the world." Cheng Shigui kicked over, Wu Zhihong had already guarded against his move, and quickly dodged it.
"Alas! Excuse me! Wu Zhihong looked insensitive with respect. If Soros is the only one to compete with Britain, the British government may still have a glimmer of hope, but the participation of many speculators in the world has made the disparity of power between the two sides of this contest huge, and the British government is doomed to failure. ”
"Look! Look, the pound fell to 2.78 marks. Wu Zhihong pointed to the computer screen and said.
"Let's add another fire and continue to sell the pound." Cheng Shigui smiled and gave an order.
"Looking at the glue up and down on the screen, it's really tragic." Wu Zhihong's heart twitched when he looked at the computer screen, and every time the number changed, his heartbeat would increase and his blood pressure would rise.
In general, the depreciation of a country's currency usually boosts the country's exports, which leads to an increase in the country's stock market; The appreciation of a country's currency often leads to a decline in the country's stock market.
Wall Street sniped at the pound in a three-dimensional and all-round way, not only buying British stocks, but also shorting them in the German stock market. If Soros was just competing with Britain alone, the pound might still be able to hold up, but unfortunately, he has never fought alone, and other American capitals have long wanted to take advantage of the fire. Soros's actions triggered a large number of follow-up orders, and the pound was heavily sold. The battle between hedge funds and the Bank of England is raging.
The minute by minute is a kind of torture for both sides, and the financial markets are changing rapidly, because until the last minute, no one dares to say that they are winners.
Cheng Shigui and the others were also staring at the screen of the computer, and received calls from Diao Rong from time to time. (To be continued......)
PS: Ask for a ticket!!