Although Bell Stone made it clear that he would not participate in speculation against Portugal, this did not mean that Paulson, who was already hungry for profit, did not participate, and they soon took action against the Portuguese government.

At the end of December, closer to the New Year, Fitch downgraded the Portuguese government's sovereign credit rating, sounding the rallying cry for the market to besiege Portugal.

In January, in response to market doubts about Portugal, the Portuguese government issued a new bond publicly, with the aim of demonstrating to the market that the Portuguese government is confident of its ability to save the current economy. The debt, totaling 2 billion euros, attracted subscriptions from more than 50 banks around the world, and the final result of the auction was set at an interest rate of 4%.

The news immediately stabilized the market, and Portugal's 10-year government bond rate fell back from 6% to around 4%, and everything looked so good. Despite the market's skepticism about the Portuguese government, the Portuguese government has hit back all the rumours with a resounding slap in the face, and at least until this point, they still have plenty of credibility in the international market.

Zhong Shi, who has been observing the situation in Europe with a cold eye, knows very well that this is at most a return to the glory of the Portuguese government, because Paulson and others will continue to make big moves in the future.

Sure enough, in February, Goodman broke out an analysis of the domestic economic situation in Portugal, in which they said conclusively that the Portuguese government's national debt has accounted for 92.4% of the entire Portuguese GDP, which has risen by 10 percentage points compared to the last disclosure.

Stanley issued a similar report at the same time, with even more caveats. They directly said that due to weak economic growth, a large flight of foreign capital, high unemployment, and annual growth in public welfare, the Portuguese government's debt soon exceeded 100%.

At the end of the article, analysts at Stanley unabashedly note that after the debt crisis of Greece, Ireland and other countries. Portugal has undoubtedly become the third market to attract the attention of the world. Although they had previously successfully issued new bonds, this did not represent anything at all. If they are not able to quickly and effectively turn the domestic economic situation around, then they are a second Greece, a second Ireland. Maybe next week, maybe tomorrow.

As soon as the two analysis reports were thrown, they immediately caused an uproar in the market.

The crisis that the Portuguese government had managed to suppress immediately resurfaced. The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds rose from 4% to 7% in almost half a month, and it was back at a high level.

Subsequently, Standard & Poor's announced on the 23rd of this month a credit assessment report for 18 other eurozone countries outside Greece. In this report, in addition to Italy, Spain and other countries whose sovereign ratings have been downgraded to "negative", the most striking thing is Portugal's sovereign credit rating, which has been directly downgraded by two levels.

Faced with this situation, the leaders of the European Union and Portugal began to frequently stand up and shout at the market, hoping to restore a little confidence in the market. But it's a pity. With the lessons of Greece and Ireland, the market is simply indifferent.

Then, on March 1, a total of more than 2 million people broke out in Portugal to strike and demonstrate, because in the context of the economic downturn, the current government also intends to reduce the fiscal deficit and increase taxes through measures such as tax and wage cuts.

From Lisbon to Porto. Then to Coimbra, angry masses took to the streets. Shouting slogans of opposition and warning the government not to try to pay for the fiscal deficit by raising taxes. Public facilities in the three major cities were paralyzed for a while, and airports, hospitals, and schools were shut down.

The strike lasted two days, and at the end of the strike, the union leader warned: "If the government wants ordinary workers to pay for the fiscal deficit, the possibility of continuing the strike cannot be ruled out." Until they agree to the demands. ”

"What do you think about this?"

Silently turning off the TV, Zhong Shi took out his cigar, expertly lit it, and took a deep breath to let the aroma slowly spread in his mouth. Then he spit it out slowly, enjoying the stimulation of his taste buds.

After a while, he opened his eyes and asked Jiang Shan, who was silent on the side, "So far, it can be seen that the situation in Portugal is getting more and more critical. What can you see from their trading methods? ”

"The interplay of international public opinion and internal pressures has forced the Portuguese government to embark on the path of finally applying for a bailout."

Jiang Shan took a long breath and said slowly, "The tricks used are still your set, I don't see anything new." But I have to say that this set is very effective, and I think it will not be long before the Portuguese government will fall into a situation of external and internal difficulties. ”

"What about the others?"

Zhong Shi was stunned for a moment, and then immediately asked, "Didn't you think of anything else?" ”

"Others?"

Jiang Shan's eyes widened and he asked puzzledly, "Could it be that there are others?" ”

"It's actually a power struggle!"

Seeing Jiang Shan's blank expression, Zhong Shi couldn't help but sigh and slowly explained, "In the 80s of the last century, Portugal once proposed a loan to the IMF. As you are well aware, IMF loans come with a lot of harsh conditions, which basically amount to giving up the country's fiscal power. It is precisely because of this painful experience that the current government is full of wariness to accept foreign dictation. Not only the government elite, but also the ordinary people of Portugal are full of disgust. ”

"In order to appeal to public opinion, the current government has stressed several times that it will not seek outside assistance. This is the same concern as the Irish government, because if they accept outside aid, their ruling party's position will inevitably be jeopardized, and the harsh conditions will inevitably affect the interests of the general public. As if the current government in Ireland is now far behind its political opponents in the polls, defeat in the May general election is a certainty. ”

"And this demonstration, it seems to be a coincidence, but there may not be a shadow of the Portuguese opposition party behind it. I guess the biggest one is. The Prime Minister briefed at an internal meeting that a new round of fiscal austerity may be implemented. But so far, this is just an idea and has not officially fallen on paper. But even such an idea was ruthlessly revealed to ordinary people, leading to a nationwide strike demonstration. ”

"So there is another reason for this?"

Jiang Shan was thoughtful. "The political chaos in Portugal is no less than that of the Irish government. There are various forces wrestling with each other, and Paulson should they borrow one of these forces, and the two sides should cooperate with each other? ”

"I guess that's the truth of the matter!"

Zhong Shi nodded approvingly, but then asked, "What else can you see besides joining forces politically?" ”

"And?"

Jiang Shan suddenly felt a headache, although he had been studying by Zhong Shi's side for a long time, he could often feel the gap between him and Zhong Shi. After racking his brains and thinking for a long time, he replied tentatively. "And local conduction effects?"

"Not bad!"

Zhong Shi smiled with satisfaction and said, "This can basically be seen from the identity of the holder of Portuguese government bonds. In fact, in the Iberian Peninsula, Portugal's economic power was much worse than that of Spain, so it was doomed that some of their bond buyers were from Spain. ”

"In my judgment, banks in Spain hold at least more than 100 billion euros of risk-free exposure. If the Portuguese government had not chosen to apply for a bailout, the crisis would have spread to Spain's banking sector and then to the whole of Spain. and as the fourth largest economy in the eurozone. If something goes wrong, it could almost be a sign that neighboring France and Italy will also be involved. Because the economic involvement between the two sides is too close. ”

"If the crisis does develop to this stage, it will almost be a death sentence for the eurozone. So in any case, the eurozone will guarantee that Portugal will accept the bailout from the EU and the IMF, no matter how unwilling their governments may be. ”

"In this way, you can see clearly, not only the intervention of capital from the United States, but also the will of several major powers in the European Union. For the current government of Portugal. Public statements and willingness indicate that they are not willing to accept assistance. But in fact, it was far more difficult and stressful for them to alleviate the current crisis through their own efforts on the one hand, and on the other hand to guard against interference from domestic and foreign forces. ”

"If I'm not wrong about my prediction, the current Portuguese government will soon be out of power in this state of internal and external attack. Although this is not what they want, there is only one way for them to save face and avoid a default for Portugal. ”

Zhong Shi finally said firmly.

"You mean, their prime minister will choose to resign on his own initiative?"

Jiang Shan was shocked in his heart, and asked repeatedly, "On the one hand, they promised the Portuguese people that they would not accept outside aid, and on the other hand, they could not solve the problem on their own, so the final way was to choose to step down in a helpless way?" ”

"You're right, but that's just a façade!"

Zhong Shi snuffed out the cigar in his hand and calmly analyzed, "But in fact, it is the current Portuguese government that has to choose to give in in in the face of the pressure of reality. But in order to show the world that they are not succumbing to this pressure, they will inevitably find a step down in the end. Yes, that's how it went! ”

Jiang Shan was dumbfounded and speechless.

……

Twenty days later, events in Portugal were moving towards the point of being out of control, as Bell Stone had predicted.

On the 20th, the current Portuguese government presented what has been described as the most demanding fiscal budget plan in 30 years to deal with the current market doubts about Portugal.

In this budget plan, civil servants with a monthly salary of more than 1,500 euros will reduce their salaries by 5%, freeze the pension of the whole society for two years until 2013, increase the sales value-added tax by 2 percentage points, and reduce the operating and management costs of the state-run health system.

According to public information from the Portuguese government, the plan is to reduce the fiscal deficit from 7.3% in 2010 to 4.6% this year, and to meet the 3% red line required by the European Union in 2013.

As soon as this budget came out, it immediately caused an uproar. The cheese that has moved so many sectors, especially the measures to freeze the pension fund, has touched the nerves of all Portuguese people.

But the ruling party's response has been tougher, and it smacks of treating everyone as an enemy.

Among them, Portuguese Finance Minister Santos warned in the parliamentary debate that if Congress rejects the austerity plan, it will cause a sharp rise in the risk of Portugal's sovereign credit rating, increase the country's financing costs, and eventually Portugal's bonds due in April and May may default, and then completely lose trust in the international market.

Portugal's Prime Minister Socrates even publicly stated that "if the opposition party does not approve the new fiscal austerity policy, he will immediately choose to resign." (To be continued.) )

PS: Thank you to the Electromagnetist, Xiao Shui Li, as if still, Shen Zixuan, Lao Nafa stepped into the air, Demon Dragon War Ghost and other book friends for voting for the monthly ticket! Thank you book friend for his reward from her heartbreak my heart, jrjmtdmw! Thank you for such strong support, and give the author a lot of motivation, I hope more book friends can continue to vote actively ~ thank you very much~