Chapter 15: The Aftermath Is Not Over
When the British government announced its withdrawal from the European exchange rate system, the Bank of England was not obliged to maintain the value of the pound against the mark, and the attack on the pound by international travel funds came to an end.
Some people will ask, if the international tour capital weishenme does not continue to attack the pound, so that the pound will further depreciate? This is because the currency between countries is like two different lakes, the water between the two lakes flows to each other, and the two maintain a relative equilibrium, and the price at the time of this equilibrium is the normal exchange rate level, and in order to keep the pound sterling in the European exchange rate system, the British government artificially set up a dam between the two lakes, so that the water of the pound sterling lake is higher than the normal level, and the international tour capital sees this opportunity, so that the pressure on the dam of the Bank of England is increasing. Until this dam can't withstand such pressure.
Now that the dam has collapsed, the water in the two different lakes is free to flow again, and although there will be a brief drop in the water level when the gates are first opened, it will soon return to an equilibrium level.
In other words, after the Bank of England announces that the pound will no longer be pegged to the mark, the pound will depreciate sharply in a short period of time, and then reach a market recognized equilibrium price, at which time both buyers and sellers of foreign exchange in the market will be at a relatively balanced level.
At this time, the buyer in the market will no longer be the Bank of England, but a buyer and seller composed of countless foreign exchange dealers, and the transaction amount will not be comparable to that of a hedge fund. In other words, even if a hedge fund wants to short a currency, there will be no random followers in the market, but there may be larger forex traders who will arbitrage in the opposite direction.
Although hedge funds are at the top of the financial biological chain, with their capital volume, it is absolutely impossible to compete with those large commercial banks that are calling for wind and rain in the foreign exchange market.
In the following trading days, the exchange rate of the British pound against the US dollar fell to 1:1.6900, so that the four billion US dollars exchanged by Zhongshi at a price of 1:2.000 increased the income of more than 600 million US dollars out of thin air, but the British pound of Zhongshi was traded in the foreign exchange market at an average price of 1.9000, and the final income was 400 million US dollars.
After deducting about 10 million pounds of interest in this half month, Zhongshi's final income stayed at about 382 million US dollars, and in a little more than half a month, Zhongshi used 2 billion US dollars of its own funds, through double the leverage to enlarge the funds, and obtained a yield of 19.1%, which is definitely a shocking figure.
You know, in the capital market, the larger the capital, the fewer ways you can invest, and the fewer you can get greater benefits. Because such a amount of capital, no matter which market it enters, it will cause drastic changes in market prices, except for the foreign exchange market.
A week after the announcement of the UK's depegation, speculative pound money began to buy pounds in the market to close their positions, which also pushed up the pound in the short term to some extent, but after they closed their positions, the pound fell again, and finally fell to the 1.5000 level before rebalancing.
The reason why hedge funds and other funds that are short on the pound start to close their positions so early is also because they know that the level of foreign exchange fluctuations is out of their control over time, plus they have huge positions, and they have to pay a day's interest for each additional day they hold, and if they do not close their positions in time, these foreign exchange profits will quickly disappear.
The difference from later generations is that because Zhongshi sold off faster in the foreign exchange market, Soros's position was not as terrifying as in his previous life, but he also had a short position of six billion US dollars, and in Zuihou's liquidation, they made a profit of more than 700 million US dollars, which was a lot less than in their previous life.
But history shows striking similarities, and the money that attacked the lira has not spared Italy, even after the Italian government announced on the 13th that the lira would depreciate by 3%. The short-selling funds in the foreign exchange market are still unrelenting, and they continue to sell the lira in the foreign exchange market, threatening the lira's position in the European exchange rate system at all times.
Also on the 16th, the Italian government could not resist it, and after buying 40 trillion lira in the foreign exchange market, they also announced on this day that they would withdraw the lira from the European exchange rate system and let it float freely in the market.
Quantum funds are leading the way in shorting the pound, and no one knows who the leader in shorting the lira is, but from the market, the profits of these funds in the Italian market will definitely not be less than the profits from shorting the pound, because before the exit from the European exchange rate system, the Italian lira depreciated by at least 10.5%, which fell by at least more than 10% after leaving the European exchange rate system, so that the gains are likely to exceed the gains of some funds on the pound.
In addition to the pound and the lira, the currencies of several other countries with relatively weak economic strength have also been attacked, such as the Swedish lilang, Spain's match tower, France's franc, etc. However, with the experience of the United Kingdom and Italy, the central banks of various European countries have stepped up their attention to the foreign exchange market, and at the same time borrowed a huge amount of strong currency from the European Central Bank, always ready to face the attack from the foreign exchange market.
In fact, after Italy and the United Kingdom, the state speculative funds targeted France, but the quantum fund did not participate in this offensive, and after analyzing France's economic policy, they found that even if the French interest rate rises in the short term, it will not have an impact on the French real estate market, because the French government has various benefits and subsidies in terms of home purchases, and basically the fluctuation of interest rates will not cause changes in the stock market. And, more importantly, as the French election is approaching, the government has even issued a stern warning to commercial banks to strictly control large amounts of borrowing in the short term in order to ensure the stability of the domestic economy at this stage.
At the same time, the French referendum adopted the Maastricht Treaty, the essence of which was to establish the European Union for the future, not only to use the same currency, but also to pursue a common foreign and security policy, which means that once a certain capital hits a country's foreign exchange market, other countries have a greater obligation to help and maintain the value of other currencies before the birth of the euro.
At this time, Germany can no longer tolerate the attack on the French currency, because Britain has withdrawn, and if France withdraws because of this, then the European Economic Community will be useless, and only one major economy in Germany will be left to play a one-man show.
Europe's currency crisis is over for the time being!
But the linked exchange rate system, which is to some extent congenitally flawed, will continue to be attacked, and the Quantum Fund is planning the next attack, which will occur at the end of the year.
It should be noted that not all linked exchange rate systems will be attacked, and China is also linked to the exchange rate system, but hedge funds cannot attack the mainland at all, because China's capital account is not open at all, in other words, foreign funds cannot flow freely in the country, let alone attack.
In some countries where the economy is normal, the value of foreign exchange is reasonable, and capital can flow freely, the linked exchange rate system is also difficult to attack, because foreign exchange dealers have a reasonable psychological range for the currency value, and they will enter the market after the price deviates from this range, and arbitrage profits from these abnormal currency changes.
In other words, if the currency of a certain country is attacked, then there must be something wrong with the economic development of that country, which can cause the market to follow suit.
Returning to the UK market, the Financial Times Index of London, after the UK announced its departure from the European exchange rate system, began to skyrocket, because the depreciation of the pound has become a fact, which is a huge positive for the British economy.
On September 17, the Financial Times of London surged 105 points to close at 2,483 points, up 4.44% for the day. On September 18, the Financial Times Index rose another 83 points to close at 2,567 points, up 3.35%.
In terms of stock index futures, on the 17th, the index closed at 2580, which is 273 points higher than the 2303 points of Zhongshi's position, and Zhongshi's position is 19,000 hands, which means that Zhongshi's account profit reached 51.87 million pounds.
This is still the result of Zhongshi's funds not being fully operated, in fact, the futures account cannot be fully operated, and a certain amount of funds must be left as a margin, so as to ensure the number of positions in real time without being forced to close by the brokerage company.
Even so, the yield was almost double in just three days, which stunned the traders who helped Bell Stone to trade.
On September 21, the market began to have a large-scale long liquidation, which to a certain extent suppressed the rise of the stock market, and the bears also took the opportunity to aggressively suppress futures prices, so that the futures index price on this day went back and forth many times, and finally the stock market closed at 2560 points on this day.
In the absence of short smashing and long taking over, Zhong Shi quietly closed his lot and liquidated at an average price of 2571, which made his profit of 50.16 million pounds.
This is no longer a floating profit, but real money.
However, after listening to the trader's explanation, Zhong Shi felt the huge difference between the different financial markets in London and the United States. Profits in the London financial markets, more than £6,250 are subject to 15% investment tax, which means that Bell Stone's profits will be reduced by nearly half after repaying the principal and interest of HSBC. The Nikkei stock index futures he previously traded in Singapore, because he was not a local resident, the Singapore government did not tax dividends, bonuses and capital gains payments to non-residents, so that his profits could be retained intact.
However, in the United States, individuals do not need to pay tax on their profits in the futures market, and only legal person accounts need to pay the corresponding VAT after making profits from physical delivery. (Thank you for the tip!) At the same time, I would like to thank the friends who voted for this book this week, xiexie, for your support! )
(PS: I found two versions, one version is that if a non-UK resident has not paid personal income tax in the previous year, he needs to pay 18% capital income tax; Another version is that individual investors pay 15% income tax on the futures market, which is carried out at 15% here. )