On 7 November, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued a public statement announcing that it had lowered its growth forecast for Hong Kong to 4.25% due to the recent turmoil in financial markets that has affected the city's economic growth. However, the IMF also said that the Hong Kong SAR government's linked exchange rate system is stable, the economic fundamentals are sound, the fiscal strength is strong, the foreign exchange reserves are strong, and the balance of payments is balanced, so there is no need to worry too much about the currency crisis spreading to Hong Kong.

On the contrary, due to investors' concerns that the interbank interest rate will continue to rise, the Hang Seng Index once fell below the 10,000-point mark in today's intraday session, and only barely rebounded to above 10,000 points in the afternoon trading session, closing at 10,104.5 points, and the performance was not even satisfactory all day.

In the Southeast Asian market, due to the clarity of the political situation in Thailand, Chuan Lu Pei is very likely to win the Thai prime minister's candidate, which makes the market's confidence in the Thai baht rebound, and investors who sell the Thai baht have bought back the Thai baht to cover their positions. The baht rebounded 3.5% in a day to 38 baht per dollar, and the strong performance of the baht has also contributed to the stabilization of currencies in the rest of Southeast Asia, which seems to be on the verge of recovery or even stabilization, at least in the short term.

The focus of the market has shifted away from Hong Kong or the devastated currencies of Southeast Asian countries, but has shifted to East Asia. To be precise, yesterday's massive selling of won in the market drew the attention of the entire currency market.

After yesterday's wild swings, the Bank of Korea had to make an anonymous remark about the won and near-term market concerns. The aim is to boost market confidence. But what they never expected was that instead of achieving the results they wanted, this kind of rhetoric created a taste of wanting to cover up, making investors' confidence in the won even less sufficient.

Although on this day, Park Hee-rae gave traders a specific price target to the Bank of Korea, that is, to maintain the level of 975 won per dollar, and there were no single sell orders in the market with an amount of more than 900 billion won, but the traders found that the amount of won sold in the market was significantly higher. Although many of them are only billions of won sold, it is obviously impossible to keep the won in a fixed position under such circumstances.

Here we must talk about the skills of trading. Because the won is limited to floating. Therefore, it is normal to float in a certain area. But if the won is fixed at a certain price level for a long time, or if it can't break through a certain price level in the range, the market will definitely think that it is the result of the intervention of the Bank of Korea. In this case, if there is an institution that is interested in selling the won, it is necessary to sell it short. The Bank of Korea will be forced to take over. If there is a limit, the float loses its meaning.

The limited floating system encloses forex traders in a range and concentrates on the game. Even if all forex traders are unanimously bearish, the Bank of Korea only needs to intervene to maintain the volatility range for one day, and then form a new range for the next day. Forex traders will start a new exchange rate game. This is completely different from the rigid fixed exchange rate systems of Southeast Asian countries, where once the currencies approach the tipping point stipulated by the fixed exchange rate system, the central bank will take over, and then the foreign exchange reserves will be depleted step by step.

Naturally, the traders did not reveal their identities, so after consulting Park Hee-lai, they began to intervene in the market at certain prices without a trace. Naturally, the position of 975 could not be saved, and even the price of the won against the dollar fell to a new low of 980.20 at one point, but the traders of the Bank of Korea were not vegetarians, and pulled the exchange rate of the won back to the 7 range before the end of the Asian trading session, closing at 979.90.

The won fell for another day, which naturally caused more speculation in the market. However, the South Korean government has dismissed rumors of seeking help from the International Monetary Fund, with an official from South Korea's Ministry of Finance and Economy declaring that they had never considered it and would not do so, while saying that South Korea has enough money to restore financial order and confidence. The official also cited the International Monetary Fund's recent assessment of the South Korean economy: the growth rate is expected to reach 6.5 percent, the trade surplus is expected to shrink to about $10 billion, inflation is expected to fall to 4.5 percent, and so on.

In this regard, the market's reaction is mixed, some analysts believe that the won is currently undervalued, and it is time to buy the won; Other analysts believe that South Korea is facing the same situation as the rest of Southeast Asia, so the won is in jeopardy, if it does not actively choose to depreciate.

South Korea's domestic economists have also begun to take the initiative to express their views in public, and since large South Korean companies have their own economic research institutes, these researchers do not work for the government, but their statements can represent the official view to a certain extent. Among them, some heavyweights said that the current market perception that South Korean companies are unable to repay their foreign debts is a complete mistake, because South Korea's current account surplus is shrinking and the balance of payments surplus is improving. In addition, the scale of short-term external debt is much smaller than that of countries such as Mexico, the Philippines, and Thailand, which have already collapsed their monetary systems. Moreover, short-term foreign debts can be repaid as long as Korean companies can settle normally, and most importantly, South Korea still has foreign exchange reserves of more than $50 billion, so the market's concern about the won is not because of the lack of foreign exchange reserves in South Korea, but because of the over-exaggeration of such concerns about the repayment ability of Korean companies.

The well-known figure in South Korean economic circles also revealed that the South Korean government is currently in discussions with the legal team to charge certain news rumors on a series of charges, including defamation, which the South Korean side believes deliberately exaggerates South Korea's financial difficulties and misleads investors by using inaccurate foreign exchange reserve information, which has led to the current financial market turmoil.

This is just a private statement, although the words reveal official information, but after all, there is a difference from the official statement. At the same time, the Bank of Korea also hinted. They have the ability and confidence to support South Korea's securities and banking industries and ensure that Korean companies have unimpeded access to financing.

In short, the day was much more lively than the previous trading days, and the reason for this situation was precisely due to the large sell-off of the won in the market the day before and the sell-off that was led today.

……

The initiator of the sale of won was sitting in a private club, a private club located halfway up the Taiping Peak, which was only accessible to guests with membership cards and a very small number of people who were actively invited, and Zhong Shi had never been very interested in these so-called private clubs, so he was one of the very few people who were actively invited.

At this time, Zhong Shi, who had just finished bathing in the hot spring, was refreshed, kneeling on the tatami mat wrapped in a bathrobe, and sitting opposite him was a young man in his thirties. His eyes were wide-eyed. Wipe the gold-rimmed glasses in his hand vigorously.

In the middle of them is a boxy, antique coffee table with a set of kung fu tea sets neatly arranged. A young woman with a beautiful face is meticulously brewing kung fu tea, her dexterous hands swaying between the stove and the tea set, sometimes twisting the tea and adding water. Sometimes it adds to the fire. The movement is fluid. After a while, a fresh fragrance came out of the teapot on the stove.

The breeze outside the room blew slightly, rolling up the green bamboo leaves around it, and the crisp sound of the shuttle was made between the rise and fall. Coupled with the scene of burning incense and boiling tea in the room, people can't help but think that they are back in ancient times, where two mountain hermits are chatting lightly, and beautiful maids are waiting on the side, which is really fascinating.

It's a pity that the man with glasses on the other side just wiped his glasses, and he couldn't wait to say: "Zhong Sheng, it's really a blessing to be able to meet you this time." If it weren't for my Lao Dou's introduction, I really didn't know that there were such a brave man in Hong Kong, hehe, I heard that even if your wealth is compared with my Lao Dou, it will not fall behind at all. ”

If outsiders are allowed to hear their conversation at this time, and the man with glasses will involve copper-smelling things as soon as he opens his mouth, I am afraid that he will immediately lose his appetite and live up to such a beautiful scenery.

"Hey, hey!"

Zhong Shi smiled and didn't say anything. Compared with Li Jiacheng, his cub Li Zehai is much easier to communicate, in addition to the age difference is not big, and they have a common language with each other, more importantly, Li Zehai is young and ambitious at this time, and wants to do a big career that surpasses his father, so under the guidance of Li Jiacheng, he almost didn't think too much about it, and decided to cooperate with Zhongshi.

For the person in front of him, Zhong Shi couldn't be clearer, the absolute ruthless character of the empty glove white wolf. In later life, he promised investors a blank check by depicting the bright future of Cyberport, and as a result, he was wildly sought after by all walks of life, and his personal net worth even approached that of his father Lee Ka-shing at one point. It's a pity that after his spin-off and acquisition of the telecom company, coupled with the bursting of the technology stock bubble, the market value of the merged PCCW evaporated by more than 90%, and most of the shareholders lost their capital. But he made billions of Hong Kong dollars in the process of this merger, and ate a listed company at the same time unscathed, and the whole thing can even be written into the textbook of the business school.

In addition to sympathy for ordinary shareholders, Zhong Shi believes that Li Zehai is definitely a master of capital operation, so he agreed to his entry without thinking, after all, he needs to deal with international currency speculators at this time, and there is no conflict of interest between him and Li Zehai.

Li Zehai is Chinese New Year's Eve years old today, with a face that looks like Li Jiacheng, and after wearing glasses, he is even another young version of Li Jiacheng. Born in a wealthy family since he was a child, he has been under heavy pressure since he was sensible, but Li Zehai was not crushed by this pressure, on the contrary, he made some impressive achievements under the protection of his father. In '91, he founded satellite television and sold it to media tycoon Murdoch two years later, making $400 million in capital from this deal alone, which caused a sensation in Hong Kong.

Today, Yingke Group, founded by Li Zehai, is mainly engaged in real estate business, and has operations in Canada, China, Japan and other countries.

After a complicated process, the woman finally brewed the tea, and after pouring the tea, she respectfully held the two cups of tea in front of Zhong Shi and Li Zehai, and then lowered her head and went to work on her own.

The teacup was really a little small, and Zhong Shi had long been thirsty, so he took the teacup and drank it all, and then smacked his lips twice, looking unfinished. When the woman next to her saw it, she immediately brought another cup of tea, and Zhong Shi took it and drank it again. After drinking five cups in succession, Zhong Shi let out a long breath, licked his lips, and said with a big grin: "Richard, this tea is good, but it is too much of a waste of time. ”

Li Zehai was speechless, he finally created such an elegant scene, but the atmosphere was completely destroyed by Zhong Shi's behavior of burning the qin and cooking the crane, if he could, he really wanted to look up to the sky and sigh.

It's just that the situation is stronger than people now, and Li Zehai can only shake his head in his heart, and echo with a forced smile: "Zhong Sheng, what you said is very reasonable, I will definitely not look for such a place next time." There are a lot of rumors in the market today, and there are also various news in South Korea, I don't know what you think? ”

He was as good as a stream, just a little entangled in his heart for a moment, and then immediately went straight to the point, never wasting a moment of time. This time, he raised $500 million in cash, and had already invested $300 million in the Korean won foreign exchange market in the early stage, so he naturally paid special attention to every move in the won market.

"She......" Zhong Shi did not answer, but instead pointed to the woman who was making tea.

Li Zehai understood, waved his hand, and asked the woman to exit the room, and only after there were only the two of them in the room, he said: "This woman is a Japanese woman, and the hostesses in this club are all from Japan, and they can't understand the vernacular." Zhong Sheng is really cautious, it seems that I still have to learn more from you. ”

"Learn from me? I still have to learn from you! Learning how to eat people without spitting out bones is real! Zhong Shi secretly scolded in his heart, but a smile appeared on his face, and he asked instead of answering: "Richard, what do you think of the currency crisis in Southeast Asia before?" ”

As far as the international economy is concerned, Li Zehai is a layman, but he has long been prepared, combining the analysis of his think tank with the reports of the media, and making a lot of things in a free and easy way.

When he spoke, Zhong Shi neither affirmed nor denied, his expression was always faint, and he couldn't see half a fluctuation. This made Li Zehai feel uncertain, and the result was that the more he continued to talk, the more he had no master in his heart.

Seeing that Li Zehai's expression had changed, Zhong Shi secretly shook his head, thinking that this lord was still a little tender in the end, compared to his unfathomable Lao Tzu, who was in the city, it was not half a star. However, this clock stone did not mean to embarrass him, and after Li Zehai finished speaking, he asked: "If there is no problem with my memory, I remember that two days before the depreciation of the Thai baht, the Thai Prime Minister also made a public statement that the Thai baht will definitely not be depreciated, you should also have an impression of this paragraph, right?" ”

"Yes!"

Li Zehai said without hesitation: "I am particularly impressed by the fact that Prime Minister Chawalit has repeatedly made remarks about the Thai baht, and the most profound thing for me is that speech...... Zhong Sheng, what do you mean ......"

Suddenly, his eyes lit up, and his expression became richer: first stunned, then brooding, and then suddenly realizing, his whole face flushed with excitement.

"Not bad!"

Zhong Shi nodded and said: "Now the South Korean government is also facing this situation, and it has released news several times, but it is actually to cover up the essence of its own foreign power, and the depreciation of the Korean won is just around the corner!" ”

Although he tried his best to hide the shock in his heart, the corners of his mouth that couldn't help twitching still betrayed Li Zehai's heart, but all this was a normal reaction in Zhong Shi's opinion. A layman who hears so much news from the South Korean side will definitely be "misled" by them, and for a real insider, this news is just an ordinary statement, a statement that is difficult to distinguish between truth and falsehood.

The direction of the won is not determined by the South Korean government's explicit or implicit speeches, but in the final analysis, it still depends on the market, especially the attitude of capital towards them. (To be continued......)

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