Chapter 129: Free Floating

For Joaquin's unusually delicious cake, Zhong Shi naturally will not let go of the opportunity to take a bite, but whether the matter can be done in the end depends on the attitude of Huaxia Commercial Bank.

Although Zhong Shi did not know the situation of the other candidates, Zhong Yi still had a big advantage. First of all, he was born with a professional background and worked for Shijie Bank. Secondly, there is a lot of financial support behind Zhongyi, although neither the Chinese side nor the US side will allow him to hold too many shares, but the Chinese side or the US side does not agree that the other party has an overwhelming share, so the funds of Zhongyi will become a bargaining chip to balance the voice of both sides.

In this case, Zhong Yi, who was born in the mainland, is rooted in Hong Kong, and is no stranger to the capital market, stood out among several candidates and became a candidate that both the Chinese and American sides focused on.

After hanging up the phone, Zhong Shi thought about it again, and after making sure that Zhong Yi had a big advantage, he lay back on the bed again, at this time he had completed all the operations of the capital market, and all that remained was to wait for the collapse of the Mexican exchange rate system.

……

At the end of trading in the foreign exchange market on the 21st, Otis returned to his office, slammed himself on the sofa chair, and let out a long breath of turbidity.

At this time, he was full of fatigue, and his body kept reminding him to rest, but his awake brain kept telling him that now was not the time to rest, because the situation in the Mexican foreign exchange market was extremely dangerous, and it was on the edge of a cliff.

In two days on the 20th and 21st, the capital fleeing from the Mexican foreign exchange market was as high as 15 billion US dollars, which is still the figure revealed from the foreign exchange market. In fact, it's not just foreign investors. Even Mexico's domestic banking sector has begun to exchange dollars in large quantities from Mexican banks, which have been unable to stop speculation, despite their strict supervision.

By the time the market closes, the Bank of Mexico had only $500 million in foreign exchange reserves left, which was not enough to import enough for a month, and now there was only one way for Mexico to float freely.

In two days, nearly 20 billion US dollars escaped from the foreign exchange market, which is enough to shock the entire financial market, and it is also a fact that the Mexican policy level did not expect. Otis and Antonio, among others, were urgently summoned by the president. Discuss relevant countermeasures. But at this time, where do they still have countermeasures to come up with.

As a result, Otis and others were scolded by the president, and after Mr. President calmed down, he also had to face the fact that the amount of foreign exchange was less than what was needed for a month's imports. After a brief period of consultations, the top government officials agreed with Otis to announce the peso's depeg from the dollar tonight. Let it float freely in the market.

This would be an extremely serious consequence. It is highly likely that Mexico will evolve from the current currency crisis to a financial crisis that will engulf all industries. Even the rest of South America will be swept up in it. But the Mexican government has no choice, and they don't have the ability to do so.

Otis only felt a burst of relaxation, these days for him. It seems that it has been a long time, and although he is not the culprit of the current situation, public opinion and the public will eventually blame him for this situation and the evil consequences it has caused.

"Mr. President, are we going to hold a press conference now?" Okova quietly walked in and asked softly.

At such a time, anyone has a cautious attitude, and no one dares to provoke Otis, who is in the midst of irritability, even Okva, who has always been arrogant, is also tiptoeing and cautious.

Otis's brow furrowed even deeper, and he didn't speak for a long time. Just when Otis thought he was asleep, Otis was heard sighing as if asking Okova and asking himself: "Am I the most incompetent central banker in this country?" ”

Okova hurriedly said: "No! Of course not! How can you be the most incompetent central banker in this country? These things are not your fault, but the concentrated explosion of problems that have accumulated over a long period of time, and no one person can do anything about it. ”

Otis was nice to him as an assistant to the president, and Okova would naturally say so. Of course, he didn't say this just because there was a personal relationship between the two, but because it was the case. He believes that even if Greenspan sits in the current position of Otis, he is afraid that there is only one way to go.

This is the sadness of the fixed exchange rate system, once the capital account is fully opened and the currency is freely convertible, so that the central bank of the country has to worry about similar problems all the time, especially in a country like Mexico, which is facing such a powerful neighbor and wants to borrow their money to develop the economy, but also has to face a sudden currency war all the time.

But this doesn't happen often, and there must be a corresponding premise. First of all, the value of the country's currency must be recognized as overvalued; Secondly, there is a problem with the economic development of the country, and instead of flowing to the real economy, money is pouring into the virtual economy, especially the capital market, often the country's stock market.

The result is a very strange phenomenon, the country's stock market is booming, reaching new highs, attracting almost everyone to invest their money in the stock market. At least from the stock market, the country's economy is developing very well, but in reality it is full of crises, and in this case it only takes a moment to destroy the country's foreign exchange system, and then the country's entire economy.

Now the situation has fallen to Mexico.

According to incomplete statistics, the funds from the United States alone have invested as much as $70 billion in the Mexican stock market, so although the Mexican stock market has reacted positively to the depreciation of the peso in the past day, this increase has not been able to retain foreign investors. The massive $70 billion in capital outflows would be enough to overwhelm Mexico's fragile foreign exchange system.

Otis could have imagined that once the peso was declared free-floating, the stock market would face an even bigger shock, and it would not only be the outflow of funds from some foreign investors. I am afraid that foreign investors in the entire capital market will have to withdraw their funds.

The stock market plummeted, interest rates skyrocketed, borrowing was difficult, and the banking system collapsed, which in turn brought inflation and high unemployment...... Tragic images flashed in front of Otis, and although they had not yet happened, Otis knew that they could happen in the near future, and there was nothing he could do. This powerlessness irritates him. It's also very helpless.

"Sir. Mr. ......" Seeing that Otis was lost in thought again, Okova anxiously urged twice, and now there was not much time left before the press conference was scheduled.

"Nine o'clock in the evening!" Otis came back to his senses from the association and said with an unusually bitter voice. A cigar is ordered from the table. Hide your entire face behind a cloud of smoke.

On the evening of the 21st. The Bank of Mexico announced. Unable to maintain the exchange rate after the depreciation of the peso, it was announced that the peso would be separated from the exchange rate system pegged to the US dollar starting from 0:00. Officially free-floating.

The foreign exchange market reacted immediately, and the peso immediately began to depreciate by an astonishing magnitude, and on the 22nd, the peso fell from the previous 3.977 pesos to 1 dollar to 5 pesos to 1 dollar, a full drop of more than 25%.

The next day, the peso continued to fall in the foreign exchange market, and although there were voices that the peso had reached a normal valuation level, the wave of capital flight could not be stopped in a moment, and on this day the peso fell to 5.2 pesos per dollar, a drop of 4%.

The peso then rose slightly, rising to 5.05 pesos to $1 on the 25th, but the good times were short-lived, and into January, the peso continued to fall, reaching the status of 5.23 pesos per dollar on January 15. At this time, the entire South American region had already suffered the consequences of the free float of the Mexican peso, with stock market indices in Brazil, Argentina, Chile and Peru falling sharply, with Argentina's stock index falling more than 6%, Chile down 4% and Brazil down 7%. The Mexican stock market is even worse, falling by more than 20% compared to before the peso depreciated, and the consequence of this decline is that foreign capital continues to panic and sell on the stock market, which in turn causes the stock market to continue to fall.

On January 15, 1995, Bell Stone began to buy pesos in the market, not because he thought that the exchange rate of the peso had fallen to the end, but because the United States, the International Monetary Fund, the Bank for International Settlements and other Latin American countries jointly announced that they would help Mexico to repay its foreign debt and support the peso, and several countries and institutions combined a total of $50 billion to put into the Mexican market. Although it did not stop the decline of the market for a while, it has cast a ray of light on the dark Mexico.

Compared to the previous exchange rate of 3.91 pesos to 1 US dollar, Zhongshi now only needs to pay 6.365 billion yuan to buy back the corresponding pesos, and after repaying the 5 billion dollars borrowed, Zhongshi has added 1.365 billion US dollars to his account. As interest rates at Mexican domestic banks rose sharply, Bell Stone paid an additional $15 million in interest, resulting in a final gain of $1.3 billion.

In the IMM market, the $100 million invested by Zhongshi was amplified through leverage, earning more than $300 million, and the yield reached 300%, which is still under the condition of limiting positions.

In the Brazilian stock market, the current floating profit is 104%, that is, $100 million becomes $200 million. In the OTC options market, Zhongshi made another $500 million in profits, and this was due to the fact that the opponent negotiated with Zhongshi in advance, and they could not let the contract lose money unlimitedly.

By February '95, Bell Stone had ended his shorting of the Mexican peso, and he had earned a total of $2.2 billion in the crisis. Among them, Tianyu Fund earned 600 million US dollars, and successfully increased its net value by 1.5 times on the first anniversary of its establishment, becoming the most dazzling star fund in the capital market. (To be continued......)

PS: Thank you book friend Amy for the monthly pass! Thank you for the familiar eyes of book friends for rewarding and giving away the promotion of this book! I also thank the book fans for the monthly pass and reward 114477, as for the renewal ticket, I'm sorry that I can only return the full amount, but I still appreciate the encouragement to the author.