"It's so relaxing!"

Zhong Shi, who returned home, stretched comfortably, but unexpectedly found Andrew and Liao Xiaohua sitting upright in the living room, staring motionless ahead with two pairs of eyes, two well-behaved children, and sitting opposite them was Zhong Shi's father, Zhong Jianjun, who was saying something in not very proficient Cantonese.

Zhong Shi had a headache and was about to pull out his legs, but was seen by the sharp-eyed Liu Lan and shouted to the living room: "The stone is back!" ”

Hearing Liu Lan's shout, Zhong Jianjun could only hold back his tirade, glared at Zhong Shi, and said unceremoniously: "I'm about to graduate from college, and I'm still running around, and I'm not in shape all day long, look at your two friends, I have time to learn from them!" With that, he glared at Zhong Shi viciously, and then walked up the stairs slowly.

Zhong Shi scratched his head, sat down in Zhong Jianjun's position just now, and pretended to be fierce and said to the two who couldn't help laughing: "What are you doing here?" Didn't I tell you not to come to my house if there is nothing important? ”

"That's right, we just got an extremely reliable piece of information, and we can't reach you, so we have to come here." After holding back a smile for a long time, Andrew returned to normal, sat up straight, and said seriously.

As soon as he heard that he was talking about business, Liao Xiaohua also straightened his face and looked at Zhong Shi expectantly, with a look of extreme longing in his two bloodshot eyes.

"Oh? What the hell is going on? Seeing that the two of them were so serious, Zhong Shi also became serious. looked at Andrew with a serious face.

"According to what I have received, international funds, especially hedge funds in the United States, are attacking the Thai baht on a large scale, and they are said to have used up to $10 billion in funds." Andrew said with a grim face, "In addition to the spot market, it is said that they have also established a considerable number of shorts in forward foreign exchange trading, and now they are going to take the Thai baht down in one fell swoop." ”

"Uh......" Zhong Shi was speechless for a moment, then leaned back on the sofa and said lazily, "That's what you've heard?" Andrew. Your sense of smell in the market is too dull, right? ”

"How. You know it all? Andrew's face showed an obvious stunned expression, but after seeing Zhong Shi's expression, he became excited again, "Zhong Sheng." Didn't you hear the wind a long time ago? ”

Zhong Shi shook his head. He said slowly, "I didn't hear the wind. However, the yen has recently depreciated sharply against the dollar, in other words, the dollar has strengthened. Do you know all about the weakening of the yen? ”

"Of course we know this, but what does it have to do with what I just said about attacking the baht?" Andrew looked at Liao Xiaohua, saw that he also had a puzzled look, turned his head and continued to ask.

"It's a big deal!" Zhong Shi looked hateful and steelless, and then crossed his fingers and analyzed one by one, "The strength of the dollar means that the currency pegged to the dollar is stronger, which is a disaster for countries whose currency is pegged to the dollar, especially for countries that rely on exports and foreign investment to promote economic growth." Think about it, what are the countries like this? ”

"Thailand?" Andrew suddenly realized and blurted out.

"It seems to be more than that!" Liao Xiaohua thought about it first, and said one by one, "Thailand should be just one of them, as well as Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and South Korea." Most of these currencies are fixed-rate-based, and most of them are pegged to the US dollar. ”

In fact, the currencies of most countries can only be pegged to the US dollar, because their currencies cannot be globalized at all, nor will they become the settlement currency in international trade, so they can only circulate in one country or region at most.

This was the pattern formed after the Second Shijie War, when Britain and the United States had fought openly and secretly over international currencies, but in the end, because the United States had a strong national support, the "Bretton Woods system" with the dollar as the central currency was formed.

"China's renminbi seems to be pegged to the U.S. dollar." Liao Xiaohua Zuihou added.

"Huaxia is not a problem." Zhong Shi waved his hand, signaling that Liao Xiaohua was thinking a little differently. "What I'm going to ask you to think about is that countries where the capital account is open, that is, countries where money can circulate freely and where foreign banks are stationed."

What are you kidding, at this time there is no possibility of a currency crisis for Huaxia at all. Because currency cannot be freely converted, even if it is exchanged, there is a certain amount, and it is impossible for large amounts of US dollar funds to enter Huaxia in the form of hot money. Even if QFII was later opened, that is, certain foreign investors could directly invest in China's stock market, but there was still a certain amount.

"If that's the case, then there are only a few countries like Thailand, Singapore, and South Korea!" Liao Xiaohua thought about it for a while before he said with certainty.

"Not bad! These are the countries! Zhong Shi nodded approvingly, "Although the economic situation of these countries is different, they all have a fixed exchange rate system and are more export-oriented. Because if the national currency appreciates and exports are unfavorable, then the domestic economy will have big problems. At times like these, those international predators are like sharks that smell blood, and will soon attack the monetary systems of these countries. ”

"Just like Thailand now?" Andrew already understood a little, but still asked.

"Not bad!" Zhong Shi nodded, "I'll give you an analysis of Thailand's economic situation. Although in the early 90s, Thailand was able to quickly complete the process of industrialization by attracting a lot of foreign capital, but this capital could only transfer the cost of production, knowing that Thailand itself is not a large consumer market, so the products produced are destined to be exported again. ”

"What's worse is that not all the money is invested in production, a considerable amount of money is invested in Thailand's securities and real estate market. This is bound to form a bubble, just like in Japan a few years ago. ”

"Since the year before ('95), Thailand's exports have been hit hard by the appreciation of the baht. Last year, export growth rose by only 3% over the previous year, which means that export-led economic growth has peaked. The real estate market has created a huge bubble, and it is said that $20 billion worth of houses in Bangkok cannot be sold. You have to know what supports the real estate industry, it is the bank's loans, and these houses that cannot be sold will inevitably become bad debts of the bank. With the collapse of the real estate sector, the banking system is also at great risk. ”

"Looking at Bangkok's stock market, the bubble that has been constrained by the real estate market since last year is starting to languish. If there is no money to be made in the stock market, the new capital will be reduced, and without the support of new funds, it will be difficult for listed companies to raise funds to continue production, which will deal a fatal blow to production and even consumption. ”

"The most important point is that when the Thai economy is stagnant, foreign capital naturally looks for the next economic growth point. You must know that most of these foreign capital comes from Japan, and in the case of the depreciation of the yen and the sluggish domestic economy, these yen capital cannot get corresponding benefits in Thailand, so they will withdraw from Thailand and invest in China instead. ”

At this time, the coastal areas of China were in full swing to carry out the movement of three links and one level to attract capital and jishu from foreign countries. The so-called three links and one level, that is, water pass, electricity pass, road pass, and site leveling. It means that as long as the funds are in place, the factory can be built immediately.

In addition to the support of hardware conditions, Huaxia also has an advantage that Southeast Asian countries cannot match, that is, it has the world's largest market, and the consumption capacity is far from being fully developed.

"The collapse of the domestic economy, coupled with the flight of foreign funds, you can all imagine the tragic end of Thailand!" After finishing speaking, Zhong Shi lit a cigarette and thought maliciously in the curling green smoke, the Southeast Asian financial crisis is really coming!

"Can't the Thai government declare free floating?" Liao Xiaohua was shocked when he heard this, because he thought that not only Thailand, but even the countries he just mentioned had such and such economic problems. According to Zhongshi's analysis, isn't there a risk that the currencies of these countries will be attacked?

He suddenly realized that Hong Kong is also a region pegged to the US dollar, and it is also a regional financial center, and if international money starts a currency war, then Hong Kong may also be attacked. Thinking of this, he couldn't help but shiver all over his body, and a cold sweat the size of a soybean broke out on his forehead.

Andrew doesn't care, he's a believer in the free market, and he's extremely averse to any intervention in the market. So when I heard about this currency war, not only did I not worry at all, but the more I listened, the more excited I became, and I couldn't wait for me to immediately devote myself to doing a big job.

Zhong Shi looked at Liao Xiaohua, who had obviously changed his face, and then at Andrew, who was still indifferent, and then said leisurely: "Unlikely!" The Thai government's policy underpinned by its desire to become the center of the regional economy does not allow them to voluntarily opt for a floating exchange rate unless absolutely necessary. In fact, since January this year, the Thai baht has faced continuous attacks on international travel funds, but until now the Thai baht has remained within a fixed range, and it must be said that the Thai side has done a very good job. ”

Although he was praising the Thai government, Liao Xiaohua and Andrew could hear that Zhong Shi's tone was not optimistic, which showed that Zhong Shi was not optimistic about the Thai government at all.

"This doesn't work, that doesn't work, is there no way?" Liao Xiaohua suddenly stood up and shouted angrily.

For Liao Xiaohua's sudden gaffe, Andrew was obviously unprepared, and hurriedly moved to the side, constantly shouting: "Relax, buddy, relax." ”

"It's not impossible!" Zhong Shi pursed his lips, not minding Liao Xiaohua's slightly exaggerated reaction, "It's not certain who wins or loses, you must know that Thailand has an extremely strong ally!" (To be continued......)

PS: Thank you very much to the book friends Ga Geli and Fu Shen Zhang for voting for the monthly ticket!