John. Paulson moved the materials from his desk and unfolded a map of Japan: "This is Japan, Jerry, you should be more familiar than me, including one capital, one prefecture, two prefectures, and forty-three prefectures, and Paulson's investment team focused on Japan's three major metropolitan areas: Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya. In 1985, Japan's urbanization rate reached 76.7 per cent, and the urbanization process entered a stage of stable development, with the home ownership rate reaching 59.5 per cent. Land prices in Tokyo began to rise in 1983, and then to Osaka and then to Nagoya, with Osaka rising in 1984 and Nagoya starting in 1985. In the process of rising land prices, we found that the rise in land prices first started with commercial land, and then residential land, and the increase in commercial land was generally higher than that of residential land! From 1984 to 1988, the amount of homestead assets in Tokyo increased by nearly 2.6 times from 149 trillion yen to 529 trillion yen, and the increase in assets was 5.3 times that of Japan's GDP increase (72 trillion yuan) during the same period. The overall land price in the six major cities, including Tokyo, increased by 2.07 times, with a CAGR (compound annual growth rate: the annual growth rate of an investment over a specific period) index of 25.2%. This was especially true after 1985! ”

Jerry looked up and looked at John. Paulson gave a look, "So ......"

John. Paulson smiled, "So, judging from these signs, the Japanese real estate is really like a huge bubble is constantly expanding, as the boss said!" Know what the most ironic thing is? According to a survey by the Paulson Investment Group, the land price in Tokyo alone is equivalent to the total land price in the entire United States! And, what else is it that we find very interesting? ”

Jerry's brow jumped, "Oh? Let's talk about it! ”

John. Paulson: "After entering 1988, the land prices in the three major business circles began to flatten, and we also deliberately depicted a land price curve, and voila~ This is it, after the Plaza Accord in 1985, the yen began to appreciate, which in turn drove land prices to soar, and in 1985 the return on investment was about 10%, in 1988, the return on investment rose to about 30%, and in 1989, the return on investment fell to about 24%! According to Paulson's research on international investment, we feel that the bubble of Japanese real estate will be punctured in the next period of time! The Japanese government will never allow the yen to continue to appreciate and slump, and the macro finance of the Japanese people and the national CPI (consumer price index: a price change index that reflects the prices of goods and services related to people's lives, usually used as an important indicator to observe the inflation level) form a huge contrast, which is really a very interesting thing! ”

Jerry: "So, what does the Paulson Group recommend?" ”

John. Paulson: "What do I, Fredo, and Miss Ami mean, short Japanese real estate?" ”

"Short real estate?" Jerry looked at John in surprise. Paulson, you know, there are no CDOs (Secured Debt Obligations) and CDS (Credit Default Exchange) in Japan, and there is no ABX (Subprime Mortgage Bond Price Composite Index/Subprime Derivative Bond Composite Index), so how do you short Japanese real estate? Jerry was curious.

John. Paulson: "There are two ways to short real estate, first, to short all materials related to real estate in the futures market, including cement, steel, and second, we can use VAM!" ”

Jerry: "VAM agreement? ”

John. Paulson: "Yes, boss, if you're interested in Japan's big five steel companies, we can use this kind of VAM agreement to buy a large number of shares in the steel companies and get a controlling stake, it's not a problem!"

Jerry: "Big Five? That's very tempting! But, John, is the VAM you talking about really viable? ”。 …,

John. Paulson: "There's a bit of a risk, after all, we don't know what's going to happen in Japan!" ”

Jerry: "Alright, don't lie to me! Looking at your appearance, I know that you already have jihua, let's talk about it! I'm listening! ”

John. Paulson smiled, then took out a document from the drawer, "This is the information of Japan's five major steel companies!" Nippon Steel Corporation (including affiliates Nissin Steel), Nippon Steel Pipe Corporation (NKK), Kawasaki Steel Corporation (KSC), Sumitomo Metal Industries, Ltd., and Kobe Steel. ”

Behind Nippon Steel stands the Mitsui Foundation, behind Kawasaki Steel is the Daiichi Bank Foundation, Sumitomo Metal is the core enterprise of the Sumitomo Foundation, behind Nippon Steel Pipe stands the Fuji Foundation, and behind Kobelco stands the Miwa Foundation of Japan. In addition to the Mitsubishi Foundation, the rest of the six major consortia in Japan have set foot in the steel industry, which one is not a good thing to bite!

"Which one are you targeting?"

John. Paulson had a hand and nodded to Kawasaki.

"Kawasaki Steel?"

"Yes, boss, we have done a detailed investigation of the background of Japan's five major steels! The most loosely organized is the First Quanyin Foundation, which was established in 1971! Moreover, as the largest private bank in Japan, Japan's Daiichi Bank has a very fast capital turnover! If you want to make money, look for him! ”

"Hey~ John, am I as as you say?".

"No, boss, you're hungrier than I say! You don't look at the look on your face, you just can't wait to eat all these five steel companies! ”

Jerry coughed awkwardly, indeed, he had already noticed that his saliva was about to slip from the corners of his mouth.

"The gambling period is set for December 1989 to December 1993, the conditions of the bet, Paulson, do you have any suggestions?"

"For a mature enterprise like Kawasaki Steel, first, we can bet on the price of steel, second, we can block the compound annual growth rate of Kawasaki Steel, and third, we can block the annual profit growth rate of Kawasaki Steel! That's all there is to it! Personally, I prefer the first and third options! ”

"Hmm~ Then, this matter will be handed over to you! There is another thing I need to explain to you, starting from October this year, all the stocks in the hands of JR Investment will be sold one after another, and at the same time, the stock market will be shorted! ”

"Short the stock market? Boss, do you think Japan's stock market bubble will burst this year? ”

"No, it's not that I think, but we at JR are going to join in bursting the bubble! Do you understand? John! It's to join the bandwagon! Do you think that the Japanese who have been put on our side will easily lend us their shares again? No, they won't, especially after the Japanese stock market has reached such heights, there is already some kind of panic in their hearts, and we, just let this panic increase in progression! The result of a large-scale short stock market is a stock market shock, or even a stock market collapse! That's another reason why I'm coming to you! Jerry opened the office door and poked his head out, "Mr. Icahn, Mr. Icahn, please come here!" ”……，