Chapter Twenty-Four: Sitting on the Mountain and Watching the Tiger Fight?
Malajia combined almost all the information available, plus his own long-term experience as central bank governor, to come up with such a shocking conclusion. He wasn't sure if the Thai government knew about the whole conspiracy, but even if the authorities did, they would be powerless to stop it.
Although he was a human being in two lives, Zhong Shi did not come to this conclusion, because no matter in his previous life or in this life, the scope of contact was limited to the financial circle, and he rarely had access to high-level politics, so naturally he did not know the Tao in it.
Zhong Shi, who was launching a fierce attack on the Thai baht, obviously did not realize that he was doing something to help the abuse. But even if he knew, he probably wouldn't stop, because the first is that capital is naturally profit-seeking, and the second is that he knows that in later generations, Hong Kong has successfully resisted the financial crisis with the strong help of the mainland government.
At this time, most insiders' understanding of the current situation in Thailand is still only at the stage of the currency crisis, and not many people realize that the currency crisis is about to evolve into a financial crisis and hit the real economy of Southeast Asian countries hard.
"How?" When Zhong Shi returned to the Tianyu Fund, he saw that most of the researchers had not left, and were gathering in groups to discuss something, and he shook his head, knowing that they must be discussing the sale of Thai baht today. Andrew, the executor, was surrounded by a group of researchers, sweating profusely explaining something.
Seeing Zhong Shi appear, Andrew Den let out a long breath, wiped the beads of sweat on his forehead, and shouted at Zhong Shi not far away: "The task has been completed, but I have been asking these researchers for a long time. It's up to you to explain to them the reasons for going short. ”
"Hey, topical person, didn't you say you wouldn't short the baht?" Although the researchers knew that it was Zhong Shi's order, few people had the courage to ask Zhong Shi in person.
The reason for this prestige is not only because Zhong Shi is the founder and largest investor of this company, but also because Zhong Shi's investment performance is amazing, even including the fact that it once collapsed a country's monetary system, although this matter has never been confirmed from Zhong Shi's mouth.
"Did I say that?" Andrew rolled his eyes and retorted unceremoniously. "I'm talking so far. There is no shorting of the baht. Please go back and have a good look! ”
Since Andrew successfully "predicted" the situation in Thailand, these researchers have often squeezed him with what Andrew said on TV, and they also know that this kind of public statement is half-true and half-true, and basically cannot be used as a reference for trading.
Although these researchers don't take it seriously. But Andrew is very serious. It's just because he enjoys life under the halo of celebrity at this moment very much. Not so long ago. The Financial Times also specially asked him to do an exclusive interview, and even revealed the intention of letting him open a column during the conversation, which made Andrew very proud.
Andrew came to Hong Kong from England at that time. Working hard in a foreign country, if he hadn't met Zhong Shi, I'm afraid his life trajectory would have been different. Now he has become one of the hottest analysts in Hong Kong's financial circles, and even after the Financial Times reported it, he became a little famous in British circles.
Just two days ago, a headhunter called Andrew and asked him to come out for a talk. Andrew, who was overjoyed, dealt with it quietly, and replied to the other party an approximate number, although he had no intention of changing jobs, but the young headhunter was obviously frightened by Andrew's bargaining chips, and left in a hurry without even finishing his coffee.
In the past few years, following Zhong Shi's side, Andrew has already been worth more than 100 million, and this figure is still calculated in US dollars, so he naturally doesn't look down on the price given by those funds that want to dig him. And the reason why he agreed to meet with the headhunter was naturally to satisfy his bad taste.
Seeing that the researchers' eyes were full of longing, but after a long time, no one came forward to ask, Zhong Shi was a little speechless, he touched his smooth chin, and said half-jokingly and half-seriously: "Am I really so terrible?" Isn't there anyone who dares to ask the real reason? ”
Hearing Zhong Shi's self-deprecating words, the researchers were all in a daxiao. In the midst of this somewhat insincere laughter, a sharp voice suddenly sounded: "They are not afraid of you, but they are in awe of you." The laughter immediately stopped, and almost all of the researchers turned their eyes to the person speaking.
"It's you, why haven't you been fired yet?" Zhong Shi saw that the person who spoke was Yile, and couldn't help but tease.
The person who spoke was Ma Jiarui, the only researcher who made money on the Thai baht futures contract some time ago, and it was he who speculated that there should be allies on the Thai side, and took the opportunity to make a lot of money by going long in Thai baht. Since the last public debate with Zhong Shi and others, he has grown in confidence and talked a lot more than usual.
"I'm an ace analyst, and it's Andrew's vision to be fired." Ma Jiarui is a musician, and quickly sneered at each other, without falling behind in the slightest between his words.
Although Andrew is said to be the investment director of the entire Tianyu Fund, he is only responsible for human resources, specifically the personal affairs director and responsible for external public relations. Because Tianyu Fund has no intention of opening up to the outside world at all, the so-called external public relations is basically equivalent to having nothing to do, so Andrew's specific position is to fire people.
"Since you call yourself an ace analyst, let me explain to everyone that I want to sell baht." Zhong Shi gave a haha and threw the task of explanation to Ma Jiarui, just to test whether he was really talented or by mistake.
"I said last time that the Thai baht can withstand this currency crisis, but it is not contradictory that we still have to choose to short the baht. The reason why it resisted the last currency crisis is that Thailand is not a pure free market, and the government's influence on the market is far stronger than the outside world thinks, as can be seen from the fact that local banks are prohibited from lending money to foreign investors. But first of all, the support of Southeast Asian countries to Thailand will not be unlimited, because Thailand's domestic economic situation is relatively poor, especially in the financial sector. Secondly, the attack of international capital on the Thai baht will definitely not be a one-time attack, even if it is not successful this time, they may be planning the next attack. ”
"Based on my tracking of the U.S. market, I recently found an extremely interesting phenomenon, the yield on the one-year Treasury bond has recently risen by 11 basis points, and the yield on other years has also risen to varying degrees, and the U.S. side has not been talking about raising interest rates anymore, and in fact the Fed is entering a channel of interest rate reduction. This shows that there are people who sell a large number of Treasury bonds in the market, and the amount is so large that it affects the yield expectations of the entire market, and only a few institutions can do such a huge sell-off. This raises another question, what are they going to do with the money they raise by selling so many national bonds? ”
"At this point, I think we all have a basic idea that international hedge funds are planning a second attack on Thailand. Although I don't know where the logic of their re-attack is, there is no doubt that the financial hotspots in the entire Shijie range are now focused on the Thai Baht, and if they are not planning to short the Thai Baht, I really can't think of a second market! ”
As soon as it came to analysis, Ma Jiarui's face immediately became extremely serious, he cleared his throat, glanced at Zhong Shi again, and saw him nodding and smiling, so he analyzed boldly and with confidence, the whole paragraph blurted out without the slightest pause, obviously confident and prepared.
As he spoke, there was an astonishing confidence in his eyes, and this powerful confidence infected most of the people present with his eloquent analysis, making them involuntarily agree with him.
"What if you invest in the Russian bond market?" As soon as Ma Jiarui's words fell, when everyone was still pondering, they heard a voice retort that the person who spoke was Ren Ruowei, who was not weaker than Ma Jiarui in macroeconomic analysis. "You must know that the yield of the Russian government bond market is huge, and even if the Thai baht depreciates, it may not be able to compare."
"Nope! It won't be the Russian market! Ma Jiarui categorically denied, "First of all, the Russian government bond market is limited and may not be able to accommodate so much money. If you invest in the Russian government bond market in advance, you only need to continue to roll over to continue to make profits, you must know that the ruble has depreciated so much, and the risk of Russian government bonds is not ordinary. Second, even if they do invest in the Russian government bond market, they don't have to sell US Treasury bonds, they can use the bonds as collateral to borrow low-cost money, and then invest them in the Russian government bond market. Doing so now is not only giving up the yield of US Treasury bonds, but also carrying a certain amount of risk, which is definitely not the work of professionals. ”
Ren Ruowei lowered his head and thought about it, raised his head again after a long time, nodded at Ma Jiarui, and signaled that he was very correct.
Seeing that there was no rebuttal, Ma Jiarui continued: "What we are doing now is to seize such a vacuum. We should deplete Thailand's current foreign exchange reserves as quickly as possible, and when the US funds come in, we can sit back and watch the tiger fight. ”
"You're wrong!" Zhong Shi interrupted him in time, "We are not sitting on the mountain and watching the tiger fight, we are the ones who finally defeated the Bank of Thailand!" ”
"How is this possible?" As soon as these words came out, almost everyone was stunned. Their first reaction was that this was impossible, after all, Thailand announced not long ago that it had $30 billion in foreign exchange reserves, which is almost four times the current scale of the Tianyu Fund. (To be continued......)
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