As it gets dusk, on the crowded streets of Bangkok, a balding elderly white man is accompanied by two men in black suits, watching everything that is prosperous and busy.

This balding white man is called Alemio. Fraga, a senior partner at the Quantum Fund, is a graduate of the prestigious Princeton University. Prior to joining the Quantum Fund, he worked for the Central Bank of Brazil as Governor.

In other words, this old man, who is a little dark and thin, wears a pair of thick glasses, once ran the central bank of a large country and mastered the country's monetary policy. From that point of view, it's not an exaggeration to say he's a great big guy.

As a result, the Bank of Thailand sent a deputy governor to receive them, and the two sides had a seemingly open conversation. During the conversation, Fraga bluntly pointed out that Thailand's economy has various problems, on the one hand, if the government is determined to protect the currency exchange rate, it must maintain a high interest rate to attract enough money; On the other hand, Thailand's large deficit in the international trade account and the instability of the banking system make currency depreciation and lower interest rates more attractive, so Thailand must strike a balance between the two, otherwise it will fall into a more dangerous situation.

Perhaps it was Fraga's scholarly demeanor, or perhaps his former stint as governor of Brazil's central bank, that made the deputy governor of the Bank of Thailand who hosted Fraga let his guard down. Faced with Mr. Fraga, he forgot that this was an economist working for Wall Street's top predator, and the deputy governor frankly admitted that Thailand had accepted any interest rate that was proven to keep its exchange rate within a specified range. But now, because of the big troubles in the banking system, the government is starting to think more about the priority of interest rates.

These seemingly inconsequential conversations gave Fraga a lot of information, as if he saw a great opportunity to short the Thai baht, like seeing a box full of banknotes, and Fraga was standing in the gap where the money was constantly leaking, and as long as he stretched out his hand, he could receive a steady stream of banknotes.

Fraga, who pretended not to hear the message, changed the subject, and after discussing it with the official for a few more minutes, suddenly brought up the topic he had just talked about, indicating that he did not fully understand. Out of courtesy. The Thai official, who was unaware of the huge amount of information he had revealed, repeated what he had just said.

Fraga and his colleagues have fully understood. The Thai government is no longer able to do anything about the current exchange rate policy, and it is only a matter of time before the baht will eventually depreciate in the future, no matter how many official statements are made to ensure the stability of the exchange rate policy.

Thai Weishenme cannot actively choose to depreciate. This is in addition to being able to attract foreign capital in a stable manner. There is also political pressure from other countries or regions in Southeast Asia. You must know the so-called Asian Four Little Dragons and Four Little Tigers. All of them are taking the road of export-oriented economy to drive growth.

This model mainly relies on the inflow of foreign capital and jishu, and it is inevitable to maintain the stability of the currency value in this case. There is no capital willing to invest in a country with an unstable currency for a long time because they are concerned about the risk of exchange rates. This is also the reason why Weishenme Huaxia no longer easily changed the value of the currency after announcing a one-time devaluation in 94.

After the fixed exchange rate has been determined. Foreign money and jishu also entered, and the next step was the economic take-off. In the process, it is still not possible to easily change the exchange rate system, in addition to the continuous attraction of foreign funds, there is also pressure from neighboring countries.

As we all know, once a country's currency is devalued, that country's goods are more competitive in the international market. However, in Southeast Asia, almost all countries rely on exports as the driving force for domestic economic development, and Thailand, the only country with the largest market share, is even more necessary to maintain the integrity of the exchange rate system, because once they announce the depreciation, other countries will follow suit for their own economic considerations and choose currency depreciation to start an export price war, and then the economic situation in the entire Southeast Asian region will fall into chaos. Therefore, for the sake of regional economic considerations, it is also necessary for Thailand, a "big country" in the entire region, to maintain its own exchange rate stability.

This is also the reason why when the Thai baht is under attack, other countries in Southeast Asia have reached out to help.

At this time, Fraga was standing on the streets of Bangkok, looking at the busy crowd around him, but he couldn't bear the emotions in his heart. Unlike the mercenary financiers on Wall Street, he is a more scholarly and compassionate person.

In fact, within the Quantum Fund, there is also a lot of opposition to attacking the baht. It is also strange to say that the root cause of such opposition is Soros himself.

Soros, a Hungarian-born Jew, was lucky enough to escape the massacre of Jews in World War II, went to study at the London School of Economics and Political Science in England, and then went to the United States to develop his career, eventually founding the famous Quantum Fund.

Soros values his intellectual achievements more than his thunderous fame in the financial markets, and he has set up funds in socialist countries such as Eastern Europe to help them modernize their civilizations. Even Yanjing, which used to be in Huaxia, had such a foundation, but it was forced to close around 87.

The influence on Soros's thinking was a famous British philosopher Carl Pope, who wrote the book "The Open Society and Its Enemies". And many of Soros's actions are deeply influenced by this book, and naturally, within the Quantum Fund, this kind of thinking has also influenced many people.

Back in '92, Druckenmiller sold a total of $10 billion worth of pounds when he attacked the pound, building a total of about $15 billion in positions. And now, the Quantum Fund has only established a position of $2 billion in the Thai baht, which is nothing compared to the original time, and even somewhat pediatric, in addition to their limited interest in emerging markets, but also because there is a huge internal divide on the attack on the baht.

For example, the economist Rodney Rodney, who is based in Hong Kong. Jones has questioned the attack on the Thai baht, arguing that if Thailand's currency collapses, it will destroy the country's economic foundations, and millions of innocent people will be forced into hunger and cold, a situation that those who believe in the philosophy of "Open Society and Its Enemies" do not want to see.

Fraga is naturally one of them.

"Sir, let's have a watermelon, it's guaranteed to be sweet and crunchy." As Fraga wandered outside a shop on the side of the road, the stall owner next to him was selling his produce at an inopportune time.

Fraga was stunned for a moment, and then looked at the stall owner who suddenly spoke. It's the streets of Bangkok, and it's rush hour, and the sudden sound of a three-wheeler, the honking of a car, the sound of people talking, all kinds of noisy sounds mix together, so that Fraga is not sure that the stall owner is talking to himself.

"Watermelon!" When the stall owner saw Fraga looking over, a smile appeared on his face, and he quickly held up a watermelon, said an English watermelon in a blunt tone, and then a series of Thai Chinese dialects appeared.

Now Fraga understood, he looked up at the sunset that reflected half of the sky, waved his hand to wipe the sweat on his forehead, and muttered in a low voice: "It's really hot here." ”

Thailand is located near the equator and has a hot climate all year round, and at this time it is summer, and the temperature is even higher. The hot summer months made Fraga, who is from New York, very unaccustomed, so he subconsciously complained. But when the afterglow of his eyes then swept to the two guards behind him, he couldn't help but feel a little guilty in his heart, these two were employees belonging to the Thai government, and when they heard that Fraja wanted to go to the streets of Bangkok, the two were sent as guards, and they could have enjoyed plenty of cool air in the air-conditioned room. However, they will not accept a tip if they want to, so they have to make some additional additions.

"One!" Fraga first said to the stall owner, then remembered that the other party might not understand what he said, and held up a finger again, "This is the money for you." He pulled out a $10 bill.

Although Fraja was accustomed to using cheques, before coming to Thailand, he made some efforts to know that the transactions here were in the form of cash, so he withdrew a lot of banknotes in advance.

The stall owner was overjoyed, and hurriedly took a bag of watermelons, and while handing it to Fraga, he took the banknote in his hand, flicked it casually, put it under his nose and sniffed the scent of the ink, and after confirming that it was a genuine banknote, he reached into the satchel on his waist and fumbled for it.

"Keep the change for yourself." Fraga took the watermelon, weighed it, then handed the black suit behind him, and then said to the stall owner who was still busy.

The stall owner apparently didn't understand what Fraga was saying, and still looked down on his own to find change. When he finally scraped together enough change, he looked up and found that the customer who had just bought the watermelon had already walked more than ten meters away, so he hurriedly caught up, grabbed the customer just now, and stuffed a handful of Thai baht into his hand.

"......" Fraga was speechless for a while, looking at the messy Thai baht in his hand, he suddenly felt a little helpless, these currencies will soon depreciate rapidly, although they are not worthless, but they will not be as strong as they are today. And the stall owner just now will be the biggest victim of the depreciation of the baht.

After experiencing the Mexican financial crisis, Fraga was well aware of the impact on Brazil at that time, although international travel funds did not attack Brazil, but that period of panic and anxiety is something he will never forget.

Fraga looked up, and the originally brilliant sunset turned into a remnant sun like blood. He stood silently, stunned in the crowded streets of Bangkok, and for the first time began to examine whether he was doing the right thing. (To be continued......)

PS: Thank you for the monthly ticket voted by the book friend pet, dongdajie, and not very fat sheep!