There are three steps to shock therapy: one is to liberalize prices, the second is to tighten fiscal and monetary policies, and the third is to large-scale privatization.

The first two brought about soaring prices and currency depreciation.

And the third is large-scale privatization. From the view of the new government, the main reason why the reform is full of dangers and crises is that the state-owned enterprises are not the main players in the market, the competition mechanism does not work, and the price reform is like building a tower in the sand, which will collapse with a bang if the wind blows.

The most trouble-free way to reform state-owned enterprises is privatization, and if the enterprises become individual, how can they not be properly handled? In order to speed up the privatization process, the initial approach adopted by the Government was to give away free gifts. Therefore, after the assessment of experts, the total value of Russia's state-owned property is 1.5 trillion rubles, and the population is just 150 million.

As a result, each Russian received a 10,000 ruble privatized securities, which he could purchase freely with a certificate. However, by the time the privatization was officially launched, ten months had passed, and 10,000 rubles at this time was only enough to buy a pair of high-end leather shoes.

If this plan fails, another plan will be born. Since it can't be delivered, then sell it at a low price. As a result, a large number of state-owned enterprises fell into the hands of the privileged and nouveau riche. What they are most concerned about is not the long-term development of the enterprise, but the profit as soon as possible, the workers can not receive dividends, and have no right to participate in decision-making, to be a monk for a day, no one cares about production and operation, and the efficiency of the enterprise is deteriorating.

The Russian government has no hesitation in implementing shock therapy, except for the rush to make a difference. An important reason is to win the favor of "friendly countries" and get some benefits from the developed countries in the West. However, the countries that had promised to provide assistance are now standing by and paying lip service. The $24 billion loan package is long in place, and the $6 billion stabilization ruble fund is even more elusive.

Russia regards shock therapy as a panacea, and originally wanted to achieve it in one step and create a miracle of system transformation. However, the treatment plan of Bolivia, a small South American country, is not the right medicine when it comes to Russia, a large European country. these conditions. Russia does not occupy either. But he wants to eat a fat man in one bite, and the government comes to make a big sham, and spontaneously adjusts the market, thinking that what is sown is a dragon seed. But in the end, it was fleas that were harvested.

Shock therapy, which lasted only one year, failed. It also made Russia pay a heavy price.

Shock therapy has a mixed reputation. Some believe that this has created many "thieves", others believe that it has at least put Russia on the path of a market economy. After shock therapy, the Russian patient has at least opened his feet......

"Private ownership is inherently reasonable. The government plan is absurd, and "the leadership of the newly formed Kremlin regime generally accepts the view that the United States is a model of efficient capitalism, a friendly country willing to help Russia develop its economy and gradually succeed."

Based on this imagination, a grotesque logic emerges: if Russia wants to become as rich as the United States, it must follow the advice of American diplomats and economists – if Russia becomes rich, it is the best, and if the country is still poor, it can only show that the root of the problem is that the Russians are not serious enough to adopt the advice of the West.

This grotesque logic sounds comical, right? But in the post-collapse USSR, from the end of the eighties to the end of the nineties, this logic was embraced by almost every Russian.

However, in later generations, the effect of "shock therapy" does not seem to be good, but of course, such a major reform, which has a bearing on the future and destiny of the entire country, cannot be viewed in isolation or in the short term. It's like a surgical operation, just looking at the part and the current situation, it's a mess: the skin is cut, the flesh is cut, so many metal instruments are turned upside down in the cranial cavity, in the chest cavity, in the abdominal cavity, and even the organs are removed; After so much blood was shed, and people were unconscious, there was a time after that when people were like they were tormented in hell......! In short, it is miserable. But the root of the disease was removed, and after some time, the person stood up, recovered, and lived like a healthy person again! So, from a macro point of view, from a global point of view, from the long process of history, is this operation a success or a failure!?

In later generations, whether shock therapy is good or not is only a technical question, and the most critical question is: Russia has been transformed, and it is a peaceful, non-violent transformation.

The biggest "evil" of shock therapy is that "GDP has been almost halved". However, all conscientious Chinese people in later generations know that GDP is a fictitious GDP and a bubble.

In the implementation of shock therapy, Russia has provided comprehensive national guarantees of education, housing, land use, medical care, pension, and free public transportation for its citizens in the process of reform. Therefore, there is no major chaos in Russia, no matter how bad the shock therapy is, except for the lack of figures on the GDP bubble, it is really impossible to cite what is still evil.

In the process of changing the system and replacing the old and new societies in any country, it is inevitable that there will be a certain degree of chaos, but the difference is only the duration of the chaos and the degree of chaos. Generally speaking, the more backward and stubborn the old social form, the more difficult the transformation, the longer the process of alternation, the longer the chaos lasts, and the deeper the chaos.

No matter how chaotic it is, it is Ye Laosi's opportunity, he is in the center, and he can see it more intuitively and clearly.

Break and stand! Nirvana reborn!

The fat man's hand shook in front of Fang Monan's eyes, "What do you think!" ”

Fang Monan came back to his senses, "Oh! It's nothing? She raised her eyes to look at Cheng Shigui and said, "What are you talking about on the phone with Diao Rong and Allen!" ”

"Let Diao Rong pay close attention to the foreign exchange and bond markets in Europe." Cheng Shigui sat up straight, crossed his hands on his lap and said unhurriedly. "Today, on the European continent, a new revolution is underway. The European Community, which had been building since the end of the Second World War, was looking for a closer form of cohesion, with the Maastricht Treaty adopted in 1991 replacing the Brussels Treaty, and the framework for the European Union had been established. Now that the USSR has collapsed, there is less threat from the east,

Then the development of the EU will also enter a period of high-speed operation. The revival of the glory of the new generation of the European continent, on a par with and even far superior to the mighty United States, seems to have become the best dream of European leaders.

However, there is an imbalance in the economic development of Europe, which is the most important part of the EU treaty, and the monetary and financial policies of the major industrial countries of Europe are not coordinated. As a result, his monetary system is not as flawless as their ambitious plans are, and the extremely complex European exchange rate mechanism will be very flawed. That's our chance. ”

Fang Monan's dark eyes were shining, as bright as stars, and he nodded with a smile.

The European currency crisis, from 1979 until the birth of the euro in 1999, the European Exchange Rate Mechanism suffered a total of 18 adjustments, affecting the central exchange rate 56 times. It also led to two amazing currency crises.

In this rare exchange rate adjustment, the international money market funds led by hedge funds have become the most terrible enemies of European governments, taking advantage of the loopholes in the foreign exchange mechanism, financial giants have launched a fierce attack around the changing Europe, and the huge profits that have been torn off have entered the pockets of these financiers. In 1992 alone, Soros alone acquired a huge fortune of more than $2 billion, and the British government lost billions of pounds in the offensive and defensive war against the pound exchange rate.

But the crisis was not limited to 1992, which, unlike most people know, did not stray far from the European market, and only 11 months later, in August 1993, the second Exchange Rate Mechanism crisis occurred, this time targeting the French franc and the Italian lira. Unlike the previous sterling crisis, hedge funds in 1993 hid their sharp minions, annihilating the situation and moving money like flowing water.

Throughout Soros's successful attacks on these currencies, including the British pound, the Italian lira, and the Mexican peso, they were all carried out through large-scale short selling of the currency in the forward and futures and options markets, thus creating pressure on the depreciation of such currencies.

After futile market intervention in countries with poor foreign exchange reserves, the only recourse left is often to allow their currencies to depreciate, thus destroying the profits of the short hedge funds.

Soros's attack on the pound not only made him a lot of money, but also made him known to the world as a financial predator who can change the political situation of a country. And standing under the neon lights and talking about it also made his name immeasurable for a while.

Fang Mo Nanyun smiled lightly and said, "Remember our style. ”

"Steady!" Cheng Shigui said with a smile, "What we want is real profits and victories, not showing off our might, or standing in the spotlight." ”

"In the financial market, only victory is everything, strength represents everything, covert attack, ferocious predation is our real style."

This is also Cheng Shigui, who is well-known in the financial circle, and is little known to the public, and they do not accept any form of interview.

"Next year in the United States will be an election year!" Fang Monan said with a smile on his eyebrows.

"Yes! Voting in November next year, it is difficult to say who the current president will be. Cheng Shigui pouted, and his index finger tapped the armrest of the sofa very rhythmically.

Although the fat man didn't know much about the foreign exchange market, he listened very carefully, how did he suddenly move from Europe to the United States.

"No, it won't! He didn't win the Gulf War and kill the Soviet Union, so he should be re-elected! The fat man said with wide eyes.

Cheng Shigui nodded, "As the fat man said, shortly after Bush became president of the United States in 89, the international situation changed. Dramatic changes in Eastern Europe, the reunification of Germany, the defeat of Iraq, the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact, and the collapse of the Soviet Union. All this has led to an unprecedented increase in the international standing of the United States, which seems to have reached the pinnacle of victory. However, diplomatic successes do not alleviate the aggravation of domestic contradictions. (To be continued......)

PS: Ask for pink, ask for recommendation