"Hello, Mr. President!"

Zhong Shi said to Visco with a smile.

Ignazio. Vesco, the current deputy governor of the Central Bank of Italy, is one of the most favorable candidates for the next governor. He looks like he is in his fifties, with a ruddy complexion, a full complexion, wearing a pair of rimless glasses, and an elegant atmosphere at a glance, which is a typical image of an intellectual.

"Welcome, Mr. Chung!"

Visco also warmly stretched out his hand and shook Zhong Shi tightly, "It is my honor to be able to talk about monetary policy with Mr. Zhong, a famous financier. ”

This is the Koch Palace in Rome, the headquarters of the Bank of Italy. After the end of their visit to Greece, Zhong Shi and the others flew non-stop to Rome, the capital of Italy, where they would meet with Ignazio, the vice president of the Bank of Italy, according to the established agenda. Vesco.

Italy, located on the Apennine Peninsula in southern Europe. With a population of about 60 million and a land area of 300,000 square kilometers, it is the fifth most populous country in Europe. Italy is recognized as a "beautiful country" due to its natural beauty and numerous cultural heritages.

In terms of economy, the three major state-owned consortia of Yili, Eni, and Efim control the lifeblood of the country's industrial economy, accounting for more than 30% of the country's total industrial output. The remaining 70% of the output value is mostly generated by small and medium-sized enterprises, so it is also known as the "kingdom of small and medium-sized enterprises". Agriculture is dominated by micro-family enterprises, which account for only about 15% of the country's GDP. In terms of the service industry, Italy's tourism industry is extremely developed due to its pleasant climate and rich cultural heritage, and its annual income can reach about 6% of GDP.

GDP figures, in 2008, Italy's nominal GDP reached $2.4 trillion. With a growth rate of 8.8%, it is the third largest economy in the eurozone, after Germany and France.

However, according to the latest data, Italy's GDP growth this year is very likely to be negative, and the statistics for the first three quarters are extremely unoptimistic.

"Mr. Zhong came here to invest in our country. Or is there some other purpose? ”

After the end of the greetings, Ignazio. "According to my understanding, Tianyu Fund is a pure investment fund, although it has also invested in various parts of the world, but it is not a major controlling company, or it does not interfere in management, so I am very confused about the purpose of your visit this time." ”

There was a hint of threat in his words. In fact, after Soros defeated the Bank of England. The entire hedge fund community is starting to be wary of central banks. Although the two sides are not so quarreled to the point of tearing their faces, some countries have always been wary of hedge fund managers.

Of course, things are not absolute, for example, in 98, the South Korean Prime Minister invited Soros to visit South Korea, and in 2001, the Prime Minister of China also discussed with Soros. Some governments in need of such top business elites will still maintain good relations, and fund managers are happy to maintain this close interaction with the top level of government.

It's just that for Zhong Shi, his previous investment focus was biased towards Asia and North America, and he had little contact with the top government officials in Europe. So in this case rashly visited. It is inevitable that the other party will be vigilant.

Despite his vigilance, Vesco was not convinced in his heart that Bell Stone could do any harm to Italy. After all, the other side is just a hedge fund with a scale of hundreds of billions of dollars.

"Nope. No, no! ”

Zhong Shi naturally denied it, "Mr. President, in fact, I have come here this time to exchange opinions with you on the current state of the Italian economy. If you're interested, we can even talk about the world economy. ”

"More than willingly!"

As soon as I heard the other party's intention. Vesco smiled suddenly, for him it was a dispensable thing for the other party to mean something, but if he could talk about the economy with such a person, it would definitely be a very beneficial thing.

This does not mean that Visco and others do not have their own opinions, but the more they absorb the opinions of all parties. the more you are able to grasp the law of things. In this sense, Zhongshi is like a macroeconomic advisor, and it is also such a high-level advisor, Visco naturally will not miss it.

"First of all, according to publicly available data, Italy's GDP in the first three quarters showed extremely unsatisfactory. At present, the most optimistic forecast of major institutions for Italy's economic growth this year is only 0%, that is, no growth, which I believe Mr. Visco knows, right? ”

"But according to my own estimates, I am afraid that even the most pessimistic market forecasts have greatly overestimated the extent of the Italian economy's regression." Personally, I am inclined to see a decline of more than 5% in the Italian economy this year, which is highly likely. ”

"In terms of the external environment, because France and Germany are the economic powerhouses of the eurozone, compared to their GDP figures, Italy's economic data is quite bad. Therefore, if Italy is in a serious downturn, it will further lose its voice in the entire eurozone, which is quite detrimental to the whole of Italy. ”

"The internal environment, the Italian government's debt ratio, is surprisingly simple. In other words, the country's debt is more than 100% compared to GDP, which is only lower than that of Japan and the United States. But there is an important difference, that is, both countries have independent currency issuance rights, and they can pay their debts by issuing money indiscriminately in the worst cases. In the case of Italy, this is not possible, so the economic outlook for Italy is unthinkable in the context of high debt. ”

After talking freely for a long time, Zhong Shi took a big sip of the water glass, and then continued, "The above is my view of the local economy of Italy. On the other hand, due to the economic crisis, the entire world economy is unlikely to recover in the next three to five years. Maybe this time needs to be corrected, but I'm sure you are also pessimistic about the overall economic outlook, so in this case, I wonder how the Italian government and the central bank are going to approach the current predicament? ”

"First of all, I have to admit that everything you say is true!"

Visco's face was rather ugly. He pondered for a long time before he said slowly, "The top level of the government and we have a clear understanding of this point. But because it is no longer possible to adopt large-scale fiscal policy to promote economic growth, and monetary policy has been lost, we have to deal with the problem. Start with spending cuts and tax refunds. ”

In addition, the new government will also be determined to crack down on corruption and bureaucracy. And the debt issue you mentioned, I don't know if Mr. Chung has noticed, in terms of debt, we have about 6% of the debt refinanced, and this part will be paid as interest on the total debt, in order to maintain this part of the debt from default. At the right time. We can also repay our debts by privatizing nationalized assets and selling state assets. So in our view, the debt aspect is not the most important thing. ”

"Oh?"

Zhong Shi was slightly stunned, "What kind of problem is the most urgent issue for the Italian government at present?" ”

"Unemployment!"

Visco's face was a little solemn, "Although it is in the same vein as the economic recovery, the unemployment rate among teenagers between the ages of 18 and 24 has reached an astonishing 30%. This part of the young and middle-aged labor force has not entered the labor market, which breeds various social problems. This requires the use of public safety resources, in this sense. Our government spending is not so easy to fall. In addition, if these people do not enter the job market, they will not be able to form a consumer group, and they will not have any effect on promoting domestic demand. I'm sure you're also well aware that this group is the main force of consumption, if this situation continues. The consequences are unimaginable. ”

"In addition, if the employment problem of this group is not properly resolved, there is a great deal of uncertainty about the entire political situation. When the government is not able to deal with economic problems, this group will demand that the current government step down and choose a new one that they think is capable. Under these circumstances, economic policy cannot be continued in an orderly manner. Every government that comes to power messes around, and this uncertainty about policy also adds to the chaos in Italy as a whole. ”

"That's a real problem!"

Zhong Shi tilted his head and thought about it, and also thought that what Vesco said was very reasonable, "So how does the Italian government deal with this part of the problem?" ”

"As things stand, we think there are two ways to solve this problem. But it can't be done all at once, maybe three or five years, maybe longer, but no matter what, our economy will always get better, won't it? ”

Speaking of this, Visco finally showed a smile, "On the one hand, it is natural to expand the scope of exports. In the past, our biggest trading partners were countries in the eurozone, but with the overall sluggish demand, we are interested in pushing Italian companies further afield, including emerging markets such as China. On the other hand, in terms of internal factors, we will introduce measures such as supporting enterprises and rewarding employment, and implement the employment of young and middle-aged people through specific policies, so that the demand for labor will be further expanded, which will also help to reduce the current government expenditure to a certain extent. You also know that once they have a job, there is no need to receive government assistance. ”

"That's a good idea!"

Although it is the norm, if it can be implemented in this way, it is a merit of the current Italian government. In fact, in many cases, if you choose to raise taxes because of debt, the gains outweigh the losses, because the tax hikes will definitely weaken the incentives for investment and production, and in this case, the tax sources that can be received will be reduced.

The Laffer curve illustrates this point.

"Since you just talked about politics, I would like to ask, how much harm will the policy uncertainty brought about by politics do to the economy of Italy as a whole?"

"The current prime minister is the president of AC Milan, Mr. Berlusconi, right?" Zhong Shi asked tentatively, "This is a very famous fellow!" ”

"I'm not the president of the club anymore!"

Vesco's face showed a look of disdain, "A media tycoon." At least in my opinion, his abilities are really very mediocre. I personally do not think that during his tenure there will be any improvement in the Italian economy. ”

"How is this possible?"

Zhong Shi exclaimed, "At least with a staff member like you, he can't be worse financially!" ”

"Do you think I'm one of those people who are used heavily?"

Even in the face of outsiders like Zhong Shi, Visco couldn't hide his disappointment, and kept complaining, "Around him are all villains who are sloppy and slappy, and there are few who are really talented." Some time ago, those guys were also planning to reduce their debts by raising taxes, which is really incredible. If it weren't for the unanimous opposition of the parliamentarians, I'm afraid the whole thing would have come true. Damn, these guys are so lacking in common sense. ”

"Serious political risk!"

Zhong Shi silently added one in his heart. (To be continued......)

PS: Thank you book friend Shi Huangtian for voting for the monthly ticket! I don't know what happened at the end of the year, although it has improved compared with last month, but unfortunately the situation is still not optimistic, the author continues to work hard, and hopes that more book friends will pay attention to and support this book~