Chapter 306: Economists' Predictions

"Hujiang NB Bank has a total investment of 450 million US dollars, NB Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China each hold 50% of the equity, due to policy restrictions, can only carry out corporate business for a period of time. Although there is no contract, the first loan is almost negotiated. After the official operation, the first loan of 50 million US dollars will be provided to Hujiang Electric Power Company for the construction of the Waigaoqiao Power Plant. ”

After speculating on the pound, East German depositors' funds in the NB bank were withdrawn one after another. Since it is a deposit, it is necessary to give interest to others, and there must be an investment channel.

By lending the money of the German people to Hujiang for infrastructure construction, NB banks naturally do not have as high returns as financial speculation. However, there are conditions attached to the loan, except for the gas turbine generator set that cannot be manufactured temporarily, domestic enterprises have no ability to manufacture or the equipment with poor technology must be purchased from NB Electric.

NB Industrial Manufacturing and its affiliates have orders, and the articles of association are very satisfied, in fact, this is also the original intention of the establishment of NB Bank. While greeting the hard-working presidents to eat fruits, he said with a smile: "The service attitude of the colleagues of NB Bank is so good, and so many activities have been carried out, and next year's deposits will definitely be indispensable, and so many funds cannot be left idle, so as long as the financing of electricity, medical care and communication is on the Hujiang side, we can participate boldly and with confidence." ”

The competition in the German banking sector is fierce, but it is reflected in interest rates. How much return can a high zero, or even a fraction of a fraction, bring to depositors?

NB Bank, which used to be the head of the senior management of the Hong Kong International Commercial Bank, did not fight a profit war and did not absorb savings at high interest rates, but transplanted the dazzling promotional methods of Hong Kong merchants to Germany.

Warm, thoughtful, and smiling service to the depositor as God's must be. Free coffee, umbrellas are also not worth mentioning. Rather, it cooperates with NB Airlines, Pan European International Travel Agency, and companies and merchants with good relations with NB Electric Germany. Launched deposits to send travel, deposits to buy discounted air tickets, deposits to buy free car washes, deposits to send plane right-angle color TVs...... and a series of storage activities.

NB Bank has money. It's all someone else's money, though. Thinking that he could make money with money, Li Xiaoshan said with a smile: "No problem, as long as several major provinces and cities in China have financing needs in this regard, we will find ways to participate." ”

NB Electric's stalls look huge, but in fact each entity isn't huge.

The same is true for this investment in Hujiang, a total of those few projects, first circle down the land. Wait until enough personnel are recruited and trained, and when the market is relatively mature. Then the manufacturing industry in Germany will be transferred to China one after another.

Chief economist Xie Weichang, who has been silent, was not so optimistic, and asked coldly: "Mr. Li, domestic investment is not like foreign investment, you only conducted a simple survey of the joint venture during the negotiation, and did not conduct real due diligence. Therefore, you and Mr. Chen must be mentally prepared enough to prevent Hujiang Transformer Factory and Xinhua Automatic Control from having a triangular debt problem. ”

Triangular debt is the biggest problem in China now!

According to domestic media reports, the triangular debt between enterprises is at least 300 billion yuan. The reason why the central authorities transferred the former secretary of the Hujiang Municipal CPC Committee to the State Council as vice premier? He was asked to clean up the stubborn problem of triangular debts, and even set up a "national leading group for clearing up triangular debts."

"This is what the municipal party committee and the municipal government have promised us. Even if they hide something, it won't make a difference to us. ”

Xie Weichang not only went out of China, but also a native of Hujiang, and knew better than anyone that the promises of senior domestic officials were sometimes more effective than the law, so he asked: "Are there many foreign companies that are interested in investing in Hudong New Area, especially the top 500 enterprises?" ”

Li Xiaoshan shook his head after thinking about it and said: "Not much, as far as I know, there are now four companies interested in investing, including Ford Motor Company of the United States, Fujita Co., Ltd. of Japan, Dongmen Company of Germany, and Tomson of Hong Kong, and the agreed investment amount is about 250 million US dollars." ”

came and did not be rude, developed in people's nests for a few years, and now has been killed by others.

The charter put down the apple and asked curiously: "Mr. Li, what project does Dongmenzi plan to invest in, and which company is Hujiang going to make a joint venture with him?" ”

"Mobile Communications."

Li Xiaoshan subconsciously glanced at Lin Houde, and introduced with concern: "The city intends to establish a joint venture between Shanghai Radio and Television and them to establish Hujiang Dongmenzi Mobile Communications Co., Ltd., which will produce 300,000 digital handheld big brothers and 500 wireless base stations annually after completion. ”

To his surprise, the charter actually said lightly: "It will always come, we don't do the base station, let them compete with Bell, Philips and Motorola, but the digital handheld big brother, I really don't regard him as an opponent." ”

Wu Jinhua stretched his waist and said with a smile: "Zhang Gong is right, there will always be competition, the key is whether our products are competitive." ”

Xu Sangcheng seemed to be very interested in Tomson, and asked curiously: "Mr. Li, Tomson is investing in real estate, right?" ”

"Seems like so."

The charter asked puzzledly: "Mr. Xu, do you know Mr. Tang of Tomson?" ”

"I don't know, and I've never even dealt with the Taiwan Gang, but he's very famous now, and almost no one in Hong Kong doesn't know about him."

"What do you mean?"

Wu Jinhua was completely convinced, pointed to the color TV in the living room behind him and asked, "Zhang Gong, don't you really watch TV?" ”

The charter nodded emphatically, and confirmed very seriously: "Don't look at it, I really don't look at it." ”

"Do you know anything about Mr. Tang?"

"I don't know, I only know that his surname is Tang, otherwise can the group be called Tom Chen?"

Wu Jinhua simply and patiently explained: "His ancestral home is Hujiang, and he was born in Hudong, and he followed his father to live in Hong Kong when he was 4 years old. Later, he went to Taiwan and started by selling curtains, with more than 3,000 dealers and a production volume of 500 million yuan a year, accumulating his first wealth.

Later, Taiwan's real estate climbed, and he stepped into real estate again. Taipei's Sanchong 'Tangcheng' Industrial Plant, which was jointly developed with Sun Daocun of Pacific Wire & Cable, set an unprecedented record of NT$30 billion (about 7.4 billion yuan) in two weeks in its heyday.

After that, I saw that Taiwan's property market began to be saturated. He resolutely continued to sell his assets and return to Hong Kong. Large-scale acquisition of the equity of Chuanhe Group, Yongsheng Finance, Benda International Hong Kong subsidiary and other equity. That's why the Hong Kong people called him the 'Taiwan Gang'. Even cooperated with Mr. Ho. Reaching into Macau's entertainment and real estate markets, Mr. Ho served as the chairman of the board of directors of Tomson Group. ”

He seized any opportunity, and he sighed with emotion: "It's amazing!" ”

"It's great, but he's in trouble right now."

Xu Sangcheng took over the conversation and said: "Tomson Pacific is the financing platform for him and Mr. He to acquire properties, and even wrote the feat of seven allotments in two years. The year before last, he took a fancy to the financially troubled Australian company Benda Group, and although Benda Group had been taken over by HSBC, it was sitting on a cash of HK$2 billion to HK$3 billion, so he planned to buy a 34.5% stake in Benda Group for HK$1 billion. to avoid a full-blown takeover.

Hong Kong is not Taiwan, and the Hong Kong government has much stricter financial supervision than Taiwan, and Tomson Pacific's frequent rights placements have attracted the attention of the Hong Kong government, and last month it appointed independent investigators to investigate Tomson and the World Trade Group. The case involved more than 100 witnesses, and if nothing else, he was likely to be charged with conspiracy to defraud, and no one dared to do business with him in Hong Kong anymore. ”

"There's something else going on."

The charter couldn't help but quip: "Mr. Li, Mr. Chen." Be careful, Tomson's business has to be done. But we must not owe our debts, and we will not be liquidated by that time, and we will all suffer unjustified disasters. ”

Of course, Chen Hao knew that this was a joke, so he lowered his arm and asked with a smile: "Zhang Gong, except for the Kuwaiti agent Sonaf, we don't seem to have let others owe any debts, right?" ”

"This kind of thing is inevitable in China, real estate will not advance, but what about government projects?"

The charter face was straight, and said solemnly: "Below 5 million may be able to transfer the risk to the agent, once you encounter tens of millions or even hundreds of millions of orders, the agent can't afford to pad it!" If we don't do what others will do, do we just let the market out? Therefore, Chinese companies must have a set of risk management and control mechanisms, taking into account both business and risks, and must not be dragged down as soon as two projects are completed. ”

"Yes, the lessons of triangular debt are here, and we must not take them lightly."

Chief Economist Xie Weichang took a deep breath and said very seriously: "Zhang Gong, Mr. Wu, Mr. Xu, Mr. Li, I am more worried about the current economic situation in China than about operational risks. In 90 years, the GDP growth rate was 3.8%, and this year there has been a super high growth, and I don't think the GDP growth rate will be lower than 14%!

Many people attribute the sudden start of the economy this year to the 'Southern Tour Speech' of Elder D. However, we should note that the greatest stimulus to the economy by the 'Southern Tour Speech' lies in the activation of two major factor markets: one is the land market formed by the legalization of land leases, and the other is the capital market with the stock market as the core.

However, one of the most direct consequences of land marketization is that it increases the factor cost of all outputs; The opening of the capital market has enabled many financiers to obtain huge amounts of funds through direct financing, but a large part of these funds have been turned into the land market, resulting in a rapid rise in land prices, which in turn has brought about a general rise in product costs, and has also stimulated imports that are matched with land construction. ”

Wu Jinhua, Xu Sangcheng, Chen Hao, Li Xiaoshan and others didn't know why, but the charter reacted like an enlightenment, and couldn't help blurting out: "Economic crisis!" ”

"Yes."

Xie Weichang focused his head and analyzed it carefully: "The consumer price index has risen by 14.7% this year, and it is likely to exceed 20% next year!" More importantly, at present, the main body of domestic investment is not a real market entity, and it has just transitioned from planning to market, and enterprises do not have a mechanism for self-responsibility and self-restraint. Once the losses of state-owned enterprises and the loans of private enterprises to banks become bad debts, the consequences will be unimaginable. ”

They are all in Hong Kong and do not know much about the situation in China.

After listening to the analysis of the scholars, Li Xiaoshan couldn't help but say: "I don't understand what Mr. Xie said, but there are indeed many problems in the domestic economic situation, and there are 'four heats', 'four tights' and 'chaos' in society.

The 'four heats' are real estate fever, development zone fever, fund-raising fever, and stock fever; The 'four highs' are high investment inflation, high industrial growth, high currency issuance and credit supply, and high price rise; The "four tight" are the shortage of transportation, energy, important raw materials, and capital; 'Chaos' refers to the chaotic economic order.

It's not like when you can't buy things with money, as you did when you 'hit the price barrier', but things are getting more and more expensive, and money is getting less and less valuable. It's getting harder and harder to earn. ”

"Four hot, four tight, one mess. These few generalizations are very vivid. ”

The charter looks in the direction of the Hong Kong Special Economic Zone. Shen said: "If you guess correctly, the ratio of RMB to the US dollar in the foreign exchange adjustment market is now at least 8 to 1. In the long run, the continued depreciation of the renminbi is not a bad thing for us, but if we are not prepared, it will also cause huge losses to the group. ”

With the depreciation of the renminbi, products manufactured in the mainland will be more competitive. But the depreciation will also lead to a shrinkage of funds for Chinese companies, leading to an increase in the price of raw materials. will increase the overall cost of operation.

Wu Jinhua realized the seriousness of the problem, got up suddenly, and said: "I'm not afraid of 10,000, I'm afraid of just in case, I think Chinese companies must make some preparations in advance." First of all, it is necessary to stock up on a batch of raw materials that need to be purchased domestically as soon as possible; secondly, it is necessary to be careful in planning and reduce liquidity as much as possible; The second is to use existing fixed assets to obtain mortgage loans from mainland banks for the procurement of raw materials or infrastructure projects. ”

Chen Hao asked sharply: "What if the inflation rate can't keep up with the loan interest rate?" ”

Without waiting for Wu Jinhua to speak, the charter resolutely said: "I believe in Mr. Xie's judgment, and the question now is what else can we do in addition to these three articles." What else needs to be done? ”

Xu Sangcheng said: "The renminbi is a non-freely circulated currency, and we can only use the funds in the accounts of Chinese companies. As far as possible, it will be withdrawn to the headquarters through the foreign exchange adjustment market. In addition, it is to remind domestic affiliated enterprises to be prepared. ”

The price increase is linked, and if the cost of affiliated enterprises goes up, NB Electric's factories in China will also not be able to control the operating costs.

Wu Jinhua nodded slightly, turned around and asked, "Mr. Xie, what do you think?" ”

"I can't provide any constructive advice on what to do, all I can do is to do some macro analysis and give you a wake-up call."

The charter held his hand tightly and said sincerely: "Mr. Xie, it is not easy to do this, you have saved at least 300 million yuan for the group today, and I will definitely toast you a few glasses later." ”

No matter how high the domestic operating cost is, can it be as high as that of the developed countries in the West?

NB Electric has developed to this day, and domestic inflation has not posed a threat to the group, but only a matter of earning more and earning less. Xie Weichang knew this very well, let go of his right hand and quipped: "Zhang Gong, I thought you were going to give me a raise, I knew it was drinking, I definitely wouldn't mention this." ”

His salary is not low at all, with an annual salary plus stock options, which is directly after CEO Wu Jinhua.

Of course, the charter knew that he was joking, and after thinking about it, he said: "Mr. Xu has the final say on the salary increase, and in order to show my personal gratitude to you, I am ready to recommend you to be the dean of the Hong Kong Business School that is under construction." ”

Almost all of the richest people in Hong Kong are trustees of the Hong Kong Business School, which can be said to be a link between NB Electric and the Hong Kong tycoons.

Although the original intention is not so glamorous, the college is a serious college, with MBA degree awarding rights, and internships are offered by major banks and major companies in Hong Kong, including NB Electric. In particular, MBA programs are taught in Singapore, Germany, the United States and Russia, outside of Hong Kong.

True internationalization cultivates the "elite of the elite", as long as you can be admitted, you basically don't have to worry about your future job, and it is the dream job of ordinary college students.

Business schools are also universities, and whether in Hong Kong or in any other country or region, the president and dean are the most respected people.

Mr. Hsieh's achievements in economics are unquestionable, but he is only 37 years old and has never been a faculty member before. The qualifications are there, not to mention being the dean, it is difficult to be an associate professor. Looking at the serious look on the charter, he realized that he was not joking, and immediately asked ecstatically, "Really?" ”

"Really."

The Hong Kong government does not provide a penny of funding, and the rich trustees have the final say on who becomes the dean of the private colleges. The charter stared into his eyes and confirmed with a smile: "The first dean needs to be responsible for the preparation, and the selection cannot be carried out like ordinary universities, so I don't think the problem should be very big." (To be continued......)