"Fifteen minutes later, they'll make the announcement!"

The two sat for a long time, and it wasn't until Zhong Shi stopped fiddling with his mobile phone that Jiang Shan heard such a sentence.

"What?"

Jiang Shan was stunned for a moment, then reacted, and hurriedly asked, "They? Who? ”

"Spanish government!"

Zhong Shi said lightly, "Today, whether it is the German government or the Spanish government, they will give a briefing to the outside world, forecast the relevant fiscal deficit, explain the financial situation, and the situation is not expected to be very optimistic." ”

"What?"

Hearing Zhong Shi's words, Jiang Shan's face changed instantly, and he asked again and again, "Is this...... How is this possible? Germany will too? ”

Germany is the largest economy in the eurozone, and it and France account for more than half of the eurozone's GDP. If the German government's fiscal deficit were to go wrong, the eurozone would be in turmoil.

That's why Jiangshan's reaction is so drastic.

In fact, when formulating annual budgets, the ministries of finance of each country are required to inform the outside world of what to expect. Explaining the fiscal deficit is basically the same as stating the GDP growth of the current year, because spending can be seen as a relatively fixed figure to some extent, while fiscal revenue depends on tax rates and GDP growth. Therefore, in the absence of large-scale fiscal policy stimulus, an increase in the fiscal deficit means a decline or even a regression in GDP growth.

"Germany may not be necessarily, but Spain may be in trouble!"

In the face of Jiang Shan's doubts, Zhong Shi shook his head slightly, with a disapproving expression on his face, "As the fifth largest economy in the eurozone, although it will not encounter such a thing as an economic crisis or bond downgrade. But once their data is released, it is bound to cause a violent panic in the market. It is interesting to see that on this day, Germany will also release the corresponding data, and if the German data tends to be positive, it may go some way to counteracting the panic caused by the Spanish data. But unfortunately, the data released by them may exceed the market's expectations. ”

"You know?"

Jiang Shan's face changed violently again, the muscles on his face twitched violently, and he could hardly believe his ears, "Zhong Sheng, you actually know these data?" ”

"What do you say?"

Regarding Jiang Shan's reaction, Zhong Shi couldn't help but secretly shake his head, and asked instead of answering, "Do you think the reason why I let you set up such a bureau." Without such information to back it up, am I likely to take a risk? ”

"I see!"

Jiang Shan completely understood, "So, you knew a week ago that something like this was going to happen?" God, this is terrible! ”

"Although the economic data of various countries are declared confidential before they are released, no one can really keep them secret!"

"Before the release of important data, each investment bank will make predictions based on the data from its own survey. The results are only a few corners away from the real data. And in some cases, for some specific people. This data is not confidential. As long as they don't do too much, the authorities will turn a blind eye. ”

"I get it, I get it all!"

If the Spanish government has problems, they are most likely to turn to the ECB for help, and Germany and France are the two most important pillars of the eurozone's discourse. So it's important to inform them. In this way, not only the data for Germany, but also for Spain, they also know the data.

"It was the German who did it!"

Jiang Shan came to a categorical conclusion, and then shook his head again, and couldn't stop sighing. "I really didn't expect him to have so much energy!"

"So we can't underestimate everyone!"

Zhong Shi also sighed, "At least so far, everything we have done has been going well!" ”

……

Later on February 3, local time, the Spanish government held a press conference to announce the budget for the year.

At the press conference, Spanish Finance Minister Salgado announced that the economic growth forecast for 2010 would not be downgraded, maintaining the previously announced growth forecast. In addition, the overall public budget deficit is likely to be 9.8% of GDP, more than last year's level and well above the eurozone average.

In his later remarks, he stressed that the current deficit is only a small part of the deficit and will not cause problems to the government's creditworthiness. And in order to solve the problem of excessive deficits, he will consult with the prime minister and other high-level officials to introduce an austerity plan of the right size at the right time, hoping to reduce the deficit level in the next three years.

At the same time as the relevant data was released on the Spanish side, the German Ministry of Finance also held a corresponding press conference.

Germany's finance minister announced that the budget deficit for 2010 is expected to be 5.5% of GDP, which is much lower than Spain's, but also exceeds market expectations.

As soon as the two news were released, the entire market was shaken.

Although it is only an expected number, the market is very concerned, especially in the current environment, when the debt crisis is just beginning to appear, and the release of such a rather undesirable number means that Spain may also be in trouble.

The fifth-largest economy in the eurozone, with such bad data, whether their bond ratings will be downgraded, whether they will have financing difficulties, whether they will have massive unemployment, and so on, and so on, immediately spring up in the minds of investors.

Most critically, Germany's fiscal deficit is also expected to exceed market speculation, does this mean that Germany may not have more money to bail out these countries, and if something similar happens, will the eurozone fall apart?

These have become the focus of the market!

Naturally, these issues are considered a little too deeply, after all, the German economy is not so bad, the whole world economy is in the recovery stage, and the economy of Greece is not enough to shake the foundation of the entire eurozone. For Spain, these figures are still only expected for 2010. They have the time and ability to change all that.

But panic is inevitable, especially in the commodities and forex markets.

Following the previous trading day, the euro fell against the dollar again, and this is the 11th time in the last 15 trading days that the euro has fallen against the dollar. On the day, the euro fell from $1.3896 per euro to $1.3739 per euro, a decrease of 157 basis points, or 1.13%.

And in the follow-up. The bearish momentum on the euro is still not over. A week later, according to Barclays Capital, U.S. capital had $176 billion in exposure to sovereign bonds in countries such as Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain, that is, the amount of money that had no protection on the sovereign bonds of these countries reached this level.

In the euro shorts, there are more and more capital bearish on the euro, after the release of relevant data in Spain and Germany, there are specialized institutions to publish relevant foreign exchange data, and the net short position of the euro has reached a record high of 8 billion US dollars.

But actually. Many foreign exchange positions are not really disclosed, such as the Tianyu Fund, which is at least short up to $20 billion in euros, but because it is long in the US dollar, the two offset the net short position in the euro on the books is only a mere $100 million.

Naturally, a huge panic is almost inevitable for the local Spanish capital market. The day after the release of the relevant data. Spain's Madrid Composite Index plunged more than 6%, its biggest drop in 15 months.

In Frankfurt, Germany. The DAX index plunged 138.85 points on the day, or 2.45%. It was also the biggest drop in recent times, and in the following trading day, this decline was still not stopped, falling another 98.90 points on the day, and the cumulative decline in two days was more than 4%.

On the American side. The S&P 500 fell 34 points, or 3.10%, on the day, and even fell 20 points in the following trading day, but finally rebounded. In the end, it fell by only 0.24%.

In short, the global stock market has had a bloody bath regardless of geography because of these two news.

Naturally, as a very important part of the global capital market, the commodity market is not immune to it, and it has also been hit by a major impact no less than the capital market.

In the London copper market, the price of each contract plummeted by $263.75 on February 3, $213.50 on February 4, and continued to fall on February 5, falling again by $91.50 per contract, and the three-day decline combined was more than 8%.

In the NYMEX crude oil market, the Texas Light crude oil contract also saw significant volatility, on the day of February 4, the crude oil contract fell by $3.87, or 4.92%, and the next trading day, the price of crude oil fell by another $2.13, or 2.85%. Combined with the two-day market, the market fluctuated by more than 7%.

On February 4, the COMEX gold contract suffered a panic sell-off, almost in sync with the rest of the market, falling from the opening price of $1112.6 to $1063.5, a full $49.1, or 4.41%.

On February 5, the panic continued, and the price of gold fell another $10.1 throughout the day, closing at $1,053.4 an ounce, directly completing the task that the previous two days had failed to complete.

Many small funds have been completely wiped out in such a sharp decline, and KS&JR is one of them.

The time is back to the moment before the opening of the market on February 4th.

"There's going to be a panic in the market, there's no doubt about that. We have to quickly get rid of our long positions and get cash back quickly so that we can survive in the market, right? ”

Although he has already done a good job of communicating with his right-hand man, but near the moment of the opening, Cologne. Stitchon still couldn't stop asking.

"Not bad!"

This time Jack. Mullen and Williams. Roger said in unison. Such a tacit understanding had not appeared in the two of them for a long time, and both of them looked at each other in surprise, but the next moment they turned their heads in unison.

Because Jack. Mullen's suggestion that KS&JR is not only operating with full positions during this time, but also adding leverage, which is an extremely aggressive operation even in the stock market, which is a very dangerous practice, let alone in the futures market, which is already leveraged. So when I heard the governments of Spain and Germany announce their own deficit budgets, Jack. Mullen realized that there was a big problem.

Not only him, but everyone at KS&JR realized that something was seriously wrong.

"Gentlemen, cheer up!"

After a long exhale, Cologne. Stitchon finally calmed down and cheered up the traders, "Today's operation is related to our success or failure, I hope you can do your best!" ”

Until now, Cologne. Stetson no longer expects to bet on the right direction or anything like that, but relies on something purely technical, that is, relying on the quick eye of a trader to escape this unprecedented crisis.

I have to say, it's sad, but it's also their last choice!

There was no answer as he imagined, and he was greeted by many heavy eyes. Wait until Cologne. As Stetson looked at each trader, they avoided it again.

As traders, they don't know that in such a quantitative era, the difficulty of relying on manual operations to prioritize pending orders is almost equivalent to getting out of a black hole.

But there is still a glimmer of hope that the market will not fall sharply today. (To be continued.) )

PS: Thank you book friend 830501, Oliver Zhuang, cpower, and Jiangnan Liu Feiyan for voting for the monthly pass! Thank you electromagnetist for your continued tipping! I hope that all book friends will continue to actively vote, actively recommend, and look forward to the attention of more book friends, thank you very much!