Chapter 104 The Essence of Exchange Rates
Cadaver vegetarian meal! Absolute corpse vegetarian meal!
Park Xilai has nothing to do about it, although he has scolded these old immortals countless times in his heart, cursing them to ascend to Bliss early and drive the crane west, but the reality is that these old guys have stubborn vitality like cockroaches, and Park Xilai still has to pay for a smiling face at this time.
There is no way, these goosebumpy old guys each have one or more consortia standing behind them, and they can't move easily. In other words, they are the forces that the consortium has planted in the central bank to influence or balance the implementation of monetary policy. It doesn't matter if you don't understand the laws of economic operation, don't understand professional terms, don't understand international economic forms, the people behind them will instruct these old guys what to do according to their interests.
Nominally, the Financial Currency Operation Committee is the highest body of the Bank of Korea, and even orders issued by President Park Hee-rae must be passed by this committee before they can be implemented.
However, this group of old guys is not monolithic, they are faintly divided into the financial system and the corporate consortium, and the two sides work together and tacitly cooperate in the face of the favorable economic situation to guide the monetary policy to the most beneficial side for them. But now that some consortia are unable to make ends meet, there is a gap between the two factions, and the two sides have broken out several quarrels over this.
With Standard & Poor's downgrading of South Korean companies as a whole and financial scandals erupting in some South Korean conglomerates, the South Korean banking sector has cast doubt on the ability of these domestic giants to repay their loans, and the two sides have even torn their faces and gone to court. Nature. These old guys who are placed in the Korean bank as their agents look at each other unfavorably.
It is also a bit unjust to say that the financial crisis of some Korean foundations is not because of any problems in their own development, but because of the crisis of the Japanese consortium in which they invested, which in turn led to the financial crisis of some Korean companies.
As production costs in Japan continue to rise, Japanese companies are shifting their production bases overseas on a large scale, and in addition to several countries in Southeast Asia, neighboring South Korea has also become a favored region for Japanese capital. For example, the famous Lotte Group was first invested by Japanese capital, but then the Korean side was ashamed and bravely caught up. It was only later that a situation of joint control between the two sides was formed.
Southeast Asia has become the hardest hit area. This has affected the return on investment of Japanese capital, which in turn has led to the financial crisis of some Japanese companies, which in turn has affected the financial status of some Korean companies, and this is the interconnection between regional economies. It's just that the connection isn't so good.
With the deterioration of the financial situation of certain enterprises on the Korean side. As the representative of Korean capital, Hanfang Bank began to face up to its lending targets. Although the influence of political power on the direction of lending should not be underestimated. However, South Korean capital also has corresponding agents in the House of Representatives, and the two sides have also fought openly and secretly in the House of Representatives over the current situation.
As a Korean bank caught in the middle, it is precisely because of this pressure that it cannot stand it. It was only at the urging of Park Hee-lai's predecessor that the tradition of having South Korea's finance minister concurrently serve was abolished, and the president of the Bank of Korea began to be appointed every four years after being nominated by the president and approved by the National Assembly.
It was against this background that Park Hee-rae came to power.
Because of his factional background and his reputation in the financial system and academia, he was reluctantly accepted by various forces and finally sat in this position.
Park Hee-rae, who didn't know how he got to the position, still wanted to make a big deal and leave his name in history since he took the position of president of the Bank of Korea, but he soon found that this position could not be arbitrary, and even some simple resolutions that conformed to the laws of economics were difficult to pass. For example, the interest rate cut was originally a good thing, increasing the liquidity of the market and giving South Korean companies more financing possibilities, but because South Korean capital strongly opposed the resolution because it would touch their interests, the two sides finally reached a compromise on this issue through a series of games.
And in this process, Park Hee-rae, who originally proposed the draft decision and was supposed to play the protagonist of the whole matter, was reduced to a mere spectator from beginning to end, unable to speak at all.
After this game, Park Xilai finally understood that he was just a bodhisattva who was placed in a shrine, seemingly with a high status and strong incense, and there was an endless stream of good men and women burning incense and worshipping, but in fact it was just an ornament, and he had no actual power at all.
Park Xilai really wants to be a hands-off shopkeeper, never ask about the world, and live happily. However, he knows very well that although his position is quite transcendent, once there is a crisis in South Korea's economy, the two sides that were still fighting will immediately turn their guns at the same time and point the finger at him. At that time, he will immediately be ruined, and even if he has thousands of mouths, it will be difficult to clear his body of dereliction of duty and inaction.
Although it is unlikely that he will be punished from a legal perspective, public opinion in society will definitely make him feel that life is worse than death, and the paranoid and stubborn national character of the peninsula nation is vividly reflected in this point, and Park Xilai does not even dare to think about it.
Fortunately, he also knew a little bit of scheming, understood the truth of fighting one faction and winning over another, and the people who were constantly moving closer to him gave advice, so that he gradually gained a firm foothold in the Bank of Korea. After a few games, South Korea's corporate and banking circles have changed their previous attitude of ignoring him and turned into wooing. In this period of coming and going, Park Xilai's voice has continued to increase, and he has faintly become a representative of the power of the third party.
"At present, the won continues to fall, and I heard that representatives of enterprises have called for the Bank of Korea to intervene in the foreign exchange market, and we cannot ignore this public opinion!" As soon as the topic of the recent economic situation was over, the old man with goosebumps who had taken the lead just now said in a relaxed voice.
In his youth, he used to be the director of a CJ shipbuilding, but later gave up business and entered politics and became the vice president of the Financial and Economic Affairs Council, and now serves as vice chairman of the Financial Currency Operations Committee at the Bank of Korea.
Currencies across the region have continued to decline as a result of the Asian currency turmoil. Since July, the South Korean won has fallen more than 5% against the dollar, from an initial level of 900 won to a dollar to a dollar to a level of nearly $950 to a dollar today.
This decline was deliberate on the part of the Bank of Korea, which allowed the market to fall at all times, except for a few limited interventions in July. Because both Park Hee-rae and his predecessors know very well that if international funds are targeting the South Korean currency, it will be difficult for them to stop this massive offensive.
Although the fundamentals of South Korea's economy are relatively good, scandals about major domestic conglomerates have been frequently exposed in recent months. It also makes South Korea gradually enter the field of vision of international speculators.
In this case. Park Hee-rae has been pushing the won down, and from time to time he has released rumors that the Bank of Korea does not intervene in the foreign exchange market and fully agrees with the current exchange rate of the won. It has also accelerated the decline of the won to some extent.
Originally, this situation was a good thing for Korean companies. After converting from foreign debt to Korean won, it became more (although not much). At the same time, South Korea's exports have become more competitive (although not much), but at least in the broader view, the depreciation of the won is good for Korean companies.
But the benefits are compared to the amount of debt they are carrying. It's almost negligible. Because South Korean companies borrow heavily from overseas, all of which are denominated in dollars, it is easy for them to borrow dollars from the market to expand production or roll over their debts when their companies are in good shape and their exchange rates remain stable. But in the current situation, the cost of such financing, or debt repayment in exchange for extension, is becoming increasingly expensive, which is unsettling for South Korean companies.
After thinking about it, they blamed the Bank of Korea on the inaction of the exchange rate, so they plotted to attack on this day, so that Park Hee-rae ordered to intervene in the foreign exchange market and push the won up.
Hearing Luo Xuan's words, the corners of Park Xilai's mouth couldn't help twitching, and a strange look appeared on his face. Other people who knew a little bit about international economics also looked like they couldn't help but laugh, and it was obvious that Luo Xuan's words surprised them and felt quite ridiculous.
"How?"
Although Luo Xuan didn't know anything about economics, he was perfect at pondering people's kung fu, and as soon as he saw that the faces of several people were wrong, he immediately raised a face and said unhappily: "Isn't this the truth?" Shouldn't the Korean won be appreciated if the citizens of the Republic of Korea are going to travel and have a lot less dollars to convert? ”
There is a widely circulated joke in later generations, saying that an American came to China for a tour, exchanged 100,000 US dollars for 800,000 yuan, and spent 400,000 yuan on eating, drinking and playing, and found that the RMB appreciated to 1:4 in exchange for US dollars, so he happily exchanged 400,000 yuan in his hand for another 100,000 US dollars.
The person who wrote this paragraph originally intended to complain about the appreciation of the Chinese yuan, but the logical errors in it are not much different from what Luo Xuan said at this time, and they all expose the defects in the understanding of the nature of the exchange rate.
Theoretically, the exchange rate level between two countries is determined by the purchasing power parity theory, that is, the ratio of the price of the same goods in one country to the price in another country constitutes the exchange rate level of the currencies between two countries. But in practice, this view exists only in theory. Due to various factors such as different tax rate systems, consumption levels, interest rates, etc., there is no equilibrium exchange rate between the price levels of the same goods.
In modern times, although the exchange rate level is still based on the theory of purchasing power parity, it is more to balance a country's international trade account. It is as if in China's international trade, the current account and capital account are both "surpluses", and funds continue to flow into the hinterland of China, which will form a strong expectation of RMB appreciation, even if the Chinese government is unwilling to appreciate the occurrence of the RMB, but under pressure from all sides, it must also announce the appreciation of the RMB, otherwise the countries that are often in deficit will not be willing to do business with China.
In later generations, even if China made concessions on the value of the renminbi, European and American countries often launched trade wars against China, and the trade surplus and deficit between them was the root cause.
The situation that Luo Xuan is talking about is another situation, the current currency of the entire region is sluggish, that is, the general environment is not good, and in this case, taking the initiative to choose depreciation is the most beneficial approach for the country's export industry, especially South Korea, an export-oriented country. And Luo Xuan actually asked the central bank to intervene in the foreign exchange market at this time, not to say that wanting to raise the exchange rate in the general environment is tantamount to a fool's dream, just say that he really wants to intervene in the market, I am afraid that in addition to the power behind Luo Xuan, most of the export enterprises will express strong opposition to this practice.
It's no wonder that others find it incredible! (To be continued......)
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