Gold is one of the rarest, most expensive, and most valued metals in the world. Currency is naturally gold and silver, because of its small size, large value, easy to divide, uniform quality, will not rot, long storage and other advantages, before the emergence of legal tender money, gold and silver used to be the common currency of human society. Even today, when paper money is highly developed, gold still has its unique role as a store of value. For example, the U.S. dollar, which has good credit in the world, is widely recognized in large part because of its huge gold reserves.

Although gold has lost its payment function with the advent of paper money, its intrinsic value is still present and widely recognized. Therefore, in its production, circulation, sales and other links, there are a lot of resources and capital investment. In terms of pricing power for gold, there was also fierce competition among the superpowers, followed by the COMEX in the United States and the LBMA in the United Kingdom.

COMEX, the New York Mercantile Exchange, formerly known as NYMEX, changed to its current name after being acquired by the CME of the Chicago Board of Trade. It is a super exchange that mainly focuses on energy and rare metals, and dominates the prices of electricity, natural gas, crude oil, gasoline, fuel oil, coal and other energy sources around the world. Of course, it also dominates the price of precious metals such as gold, silver, and platinum all over the world.

After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the dollar and gold were decoupled. In this situation, the Americans realized the need to hedge and increase their investment in the gold on hand, in this case they turned their eyes to the futures market, so COMEX's gold futures developed rapidly, surpassing London and Switzerland in just a few years to become the world's largest gold futures market by trading volume. Since then, the power to set the price of gold has been firmly in the hands of the Americans.

Gold futures on COMEX. Each contract is calculated at 100 ounces and is quoted in US dollars per ounce, with an underlying gold purity of at least 99.5%. The minimum movement unit is $0.10 per ounce, which is $10 per lot. The trading month is the spot month, the next two months, February, April, June, August, and October within two years. and June and December within five years.

In other words, if it is January 2010, then gold futures on the COMEX market have 21 months of contracts in the 1001, 1002, 1003, 1004, 1006, 1008, 1010, 1012, 1102, 1104, 1106, etc. Of course, the last three months have been the most volatile and speculative. The farther apart the months, the smaller the volume and the more pronounced the hedging implication.

And in the current COMEX gold market, a wave of market is brewing.

Since the beginning of the subprime mortgage crisis in 2007, the price of gold futures has risen from the original level of $670 per ounce. This is because the market's risk aversion is starting to ferment. By March 2008, Bear Stearns had reached a peak when it was acquired, with a record price of $1,036 an ounce. Subsequently, stimulated by the news that governments have bailed out the market one after another, gold futures began a sharp pullback. In October 2008, when major U.S. financial institutions were bailed out, the price of gold futures reached its lowest level of $684 per ounce during this period.

Then the economic crisis caused by the financial crisis began to come to the fore, and various economic data in the United States began to decline. The price of gold rose again, once again jumping to a height of $1,007. After this. And because the U.S. economy is beginning to stabilize, and a depression is no longer a thing to panic about, but recovery is far from possible. So in this case, the price of gold also tends to be flat, and there are no longer violent fluctuations. Until September 2009, the price of gold futures had been fluctuating around $1,000.

From September. The small team of Zhong Shi and others began to strongly intervene in the gold futures market, and the result of the crazy sweep was that the price of gold futures jumped to about $1,050. Then they realized that this siloed approach would only increase the cost, so they strengthened communication with each other, and finally at the end of October. The team completed the opening of the position and pushed the price of gold futures near $1,025.

After the absorption was completed, they began to gradually increase the price of gold futures. Because during this time, the economic data around the world was not very good, and the impact of the economic crisis was far more severe than they thought. So to some extent, the price of gold is guaranteed, coupled with the deliberate actions of speculative funds, so in just two months, the price of gold futures was pulled up to $1,227, that is, on the day Greek government bonds were downgraded, reaching the peak of this period.

Greece downgraded and the euro depreciated, replaced by a strong rise in the US dollar. To a certain extent, this limits the further development of gold prices, because as a substitute commodity for gold, the trend of the US dollar is negatively correlated with gold prices to a certain extent. That is, the dollar depreciates and the price of gold rises; Conversely, the US dollar appreciates and the price of gold falls.

As a result, before the eurozone announced a rescue for Greece, the price of gold experienced a structural correction, falling from a high of $1,227 to a recent low of $1,076.

……

"The price of gold is going back again!"

Cologne. Stetson looked at the Bloomberg terminal and said thoughtfully.

This is the City of London, a commodity fund company called KSJR, which invests mainly in gold and silver.

Cologne. Stexon, the named founder of the fund, has been investing in the gold market for more than a decade. Despite the fact that KSJR has only £80 million under management so far, the fund still has an annual return of more than 10%, and it is a fund company with a reputation for prudent investment.

Forty-year-old Cologne. Stexon, in the prime of life, has charming blonde hair, coupled with a silhouette like a knife and axe, and maintains a good body shape due to perennial exercise, full of the image of a middle-aged handsome guy. Merely. Although his image may attract the attention of others in the bar, it has no effect in the financial market, after all, the financial market relies on the size of the capital to speak.

"Guys, what do you think about that?"

In his office, he had a regular weekly meeting. All around him. There are five analysts seated, and this is his team.

KSJR has a fine tradition of holding weekly, monthly, and quarterly brainstorming meetings to discuss past gains and losses and prospects for the future. At this meeting, everyone was able to speak freely and express their views on the market.

"The fact that the Greek debt crisis broke out without any clue was really unexpected!"

A tall, lanky analyst picked up and said, "In this case, we lost a lot of money on our positions, and basically all the profits from the previous short positions were swallowed up. That's something that none of us thought about. It can be attributed to the events of the black swan. ”

His name is Jack. Mullen is an excellent gold analyst. But because of the pattern, he was not aware of the situation behind the Greek debt crisis.

"Jack, tell me what you think!"

Cologne. Noncommittal, Stason continued, "Basically, we can conclude that the main factor influencing the gold market over the past week has been the movement of the US dollar. But after the eurozone decided to bail out Greece. The dollar factor is largely no longer a concern. So what is our view on the follow-up operation? ”

"Keep going long!"

Jack. Mullen said without hesitation. "Eurozone finance ministers agreed that the matter should be resolved quickly. Once the political risks cease to exist, the trend of the dollar and the US economy will not be fundamentally alleviated for at least half a year, and under the premise of the depreciation of the dollar, I think that the capital of the world, including American capital. There is still a trend towards conservative and risk-off investments. Of course, gold is their first choice. ”

"The political risk is gone?"

Another analyst commented on Jack. Mullen's statement was obviously very unimpressed, and he shook his head and said, "We still don't have a clear understanding of the decision-making mechanism in the eurozone. This is our shortcoming, but it is precisely because we don't pay much attention to politics that we usually ignore these details. But it's also a very simple reason, if you're the finance minister of these countries, do you think there will be an agreement in the short term to use some of your country's fiscal spending to save a country like Greece? ”

The analyst's name is Williams. Roger is an analyst of Indian origin. He had curly hair, wore a pair of gold-rimmed glasses, had dark skin, was not very articulate, and always spoke an Indian accent, which on weekdays was the subject of ridicule. But when it came to the critical moment, some of his opinions were quite convincing.

"This ......"

Jack. Mullen wanted to refute it immediately, but the next moment he hesitated, because he realized that if according to Williams. Roger said that I am afraid that the decision to bail out Greece in the eurozone will have to be reconsidered.

"We've got time to look into this!"

Williams. Roger continued, "But after the eurozone announces a bailout for Greece, the situation in Greece will definitely ease, it's just a matter of time. But gentlemen, have you ever thought that there might be a second, or even a third, Greece in the eurozone? ”

"Haha......"

The reaction was completely different from the previous one, and the others laughed, but it was not a malicious mockery.

"Roger, there are some things you don't know!"

Cologne. "Maybe it's because you haven't read through European history, especially after World War II." At least in our view, the crisis in Greece is both a coincidence and an inevitability. ”

"What do you say?"

Maybe a little ashamed, but because he has dark skin, others don't see it. Williams. Roger froze and asked, puzzled, "Cologne, I am puzzled by what you say!" ”

"Here's the thing!"

Cologne. Stitchon went on to explain, "After the Second World War, various countries in Europe entered a period of repair and construction. But Greece continued to fight, and it was only in the sixties that they ended the war. Politically, their situation is far behind that of other countries, and this is the first special case. The second special case is that the country's economic policies are contrary to those of the vast majority of European countries. At a time when we were carrying out large-scale privatization and marketization, they implemented the socialist system and carried out large-scale nationalization. We all know that the economic vitality of this model will not be very good, and this is a clear result. ”

"Finally, there has always been a precedent for default in this country. In other words, the country's credit is not good! ”

Cologne. Shaking his head, Stason said with a wry smile, "Without economic growth and the guarantee of the eurozone, I believe it will be difficult for this country to get a lot of investors." Now that the growth rate of the eurozone as a whole is slowing and the aggregate is likely to remain unchanged, it is inevitable that their debt crisis will erupt, but it is just a coincidence in time. ”

"Yes, that's just the way it is!"

Everyone else nodded yes.

"So there won't be a debt crisis in the rest of the eurozone?"

Williams. Roger continued, "Is it true that the impact of the economic crisis will not cause problems in other countries?" ”

"I can't guarantee that!"

Cologne. Stason shook his head, "But based on the current situation, I can judge that there will not be a second Greece in the eurozone, at least not for half a year." While some countries are indebted, they are not as high as Greece's. So so far, we're safe. ”

"I always have the feeling that the debt crisis in Greece is manipulated!"

There was silence for a long time, Williams. Roger took out a piece of newspaper and gently placed it in front of him, "Gentlemen, this is the largest circulation newspaper in Greece, and guess what I saw?" ”

In the incomprehensible eyes of everyone, he said word by word: "Zhong Shi! He happened to be in Greece at the time of the Greek crisis, and he was interviewed! ”

As soon as the words came out, all four were shocked.

Everyone's eyes widened, staring at the crumpled newspaper. (To be continued.) )

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