"God, does he know what he's talking about?"

After leaving the residence, Gross couldn't help but complain to Zhong Shi, "Who the hell are we talking to, isn't he Ireland's Minister of Finance?" Don't even have an emergency response? ”

Although Zhong Shi did not speak, his furrowed brow betrayed his heart, and it was clear that the finance minister's words had also surprised him. You know, so far, the focus of the whole world is gradually converging on Western Europe, and Ireland is at the center of the storm.

It is clear that the bureaucracy is so insensitive to the market that both Bell Stone and Gross have a feeling of disbelief.

"If the rating agencies do their job against Ireland, how will they deal with it?"

Gross went on to complain that "Irish banks are not completely out of trouble at the moment, or never at all. Once the rating agencies take action against them, it is conceivable that the withdrawal of funds from the banks will soon form a trend, and then the banking industry will lose a lot of blood, and the government will not be able to invest enough money to rescue, and once the banking industry collapses, the situation will be very serious, even more terrible than the situation that our country faced at the beginning! ”

"They don't even have a clear understanding of this situation, and they don't even expect this to happen, how can I rest assured that I am investing in bonds?"

By the end, Gross had already stomped his feet and was so angry that he almost jumped.

"Calm down, my friend!"

Faced with this situation, Ireland's sovereign debt defaults at any time, and finally it is inevitable that it will end up in a restructuring situation, and Gross has a lot of Irish government bonds on hand, as well as some corporate bonds issued by banks, which does not allow him to be in a hurry.

In contrast, because there aren't too many Irish bonds on hand. Therefore, Tianyu Fund has a lot of room for maneuver in this regard, and Zhong Shi does not seem to be in a hurry. He pressed his hands and tried to calm Gross's emotions, "Bill, calm down first, let's review the situation if there is a crisis in Ireland." Let's take a look at what we should do. ”

The two found a café in the middle of nowhere, and began to analyze it in a quiet corner.

"With the current situation, it is almost certain that the Irish authorities are not very prepared for relegation."

Jongshi crossed his fingers and said, "It is certain that if Ireland is relegated, there will be a great panic in its country, just as it is in Greece." First and foremost is the troubled banking sector, in which case the Irish government is unlikely to restore the market's confidence except by appealing to the EU and the IMF for help. They have no other way. ”

"But the IMF and the EU's assistance is conditional, and as in Greece, Ireland will have a lot to change. So whether the rescue can be achieved in the end is another matter, and that's where we can operate. ”

Zhong Shi swallowed his coffee and said calmly, "Don't forget that Ireland is a big agricultural country, and the support and subsidies for agriculture can be called the most in Europe. In this case, they will inevitably have to abandon certain policies that benefit this class. At the expense of the majority of the rest of the population in order to save the big bourgeoisie, this is bound to make the current government lose popular support. It is conceivable that their resignation will become inevitable next year. ”

"So what we need to reach out to are their future leaders?"

The corners of Gross's mouth twitched twice, and his heart felt like a stormy wave. He envisioned what would happen if Ireland's credit rating was downgraded. However, he did not anticipate the possible response of the current Irish government and the subsequent political changes, which is the gap between him and Zhong Shi.

"Yes!"

Zhong Shi nodded, "Whether it's the United Party, the Labor Party, or the Republican Party, we have to contact the leaders of these three parties." ”

"I still have a question!"

Gross went on to ask, "If you really leave the eurozone." It is foreseeable that in the short term, Ireland's own currency does not have much credit and the country's foreign exchange reserves are unlikely to support foreign debt owners. What will we do then? ”

"It's up to the UK!"

Zhong Shi's brow raised again, "If my estimation is correct, the United States and the United Kingdom will form a joint consortium to save Ireland, and we will also be part of this consortium." Hundreds of billions of dollars or more are expected to be needed to save Ireland. If there are enough members of this consortium, we can fully support this amount. ”

"I think it's hard, it's almost buying the whole of Ireland!"

Gross shook his head and said that the situation was not optimistic, "The IMF and the EU will demand the rescue of Ireland, but will the United Kingdom and the United States not demand the rescue of Ireland?" The most important thing is that our conditions cannot be higher than those of the EU, otherwise the other side can completely leave us alone. And if the other side does not carry out strict reforms, who can guarantee that they will be able to achieve the goal of turning losses into profits in the coming period? ”

"If they continue to have problems, are we going to keep filling them in? And then drag us down at some point? ”

Gross spread his hands and said helplessly, "Even if we are their creditors, we cannot interfere in their domestic policies, after all, this is a sovereign state, not a joint-stock company." Do you think we can afford the accusations and wrath of five million Irishmen? ”

"No, no, no!"

Zhong Shi waved his hand again and again, "What we need is not to dictate their policies, but to need an obedient high-level government." This avoids the fact that we are exposed to the public. Also, I think what we should take over are the various Irish bonds, and if they don't agree with our policy, we can transfer and sell them in the market. This leaves a way back for ourselves and prevents us from falling deeper and deeper down the road, doesn't it? ”

"...... like this"

Gross thought about it, and it was the same reason, but he still had questions, "There is another problem, if Ireland leaves the eurozone, then his main trading partners are the countries of the eurozone." This situation has caused a major setback to their foreign trade, and if their GDP recovery and growth are driven by export trade, then the EU only needs to use a little means to keep their economic growth in an undesirable range. What should I do? ”

"Nope. They won't do that! ”

"If Ireland becomes the first country to leave the euro, then the EU's attitude towards him will determine the attitude of other countries." This chilling attitude not only does not win people's hearts, but also leads to further polarization of their internal contradictions. Most importantly, if Ireland does leave the eurozone, the pound may be their first choice of currency. At least the best option during the transition. In this case they are tying themselves tightly to the British, and in the event of inappropriate action against Ireland, the British side will certainly be the first to jump out against it. ”

"Remember, what we've done so far is still under the table, and if the negotiations don't work out, the U.S. side will let us know that we have a great opportunity to take action in the Irish capital market, so we still have nothing to lose, understand?"

"So you say timing is very important?"

Gross understood, too. Although he remained unoptimistic about the prospects of the whole thing, he knew that as long as it was profitable in Ireland, the whole thing could continue.

……

While the two were conspiring, a transnational telephone call was also being made between the highest authorities in the United States and the United Kingdom.

"This is Washington, and I'm Andrew, the president's special staff. Brian, I would like to speak with Mr. Downton, Special Economic Adviser to the Prime Minister. ”

Andrew. Brian dialed Downing Street, the person on the phone said. "It's Winston. Sir Downton. ”

The British Prime Minister has a large team of secretaries, assistants and advisers. Among them is in terms of consultants. The number of people is quite large, even regardless of nationality, and foreigners can also serve in this team. This advisory group is broken down into various aspects, and each of them has a central figure, Winston. Downton is the central figure in this team.

Winston. Sir Downton holds a Ph.D. in economics from Cambridge University and Harvard University. With a prominent family background, infinite loyalty to England, and a nobleman with a classical style. He was once the chief of staff of the previous prime minister, and his retention in Downing Street after the new prime minister took office, shows his importance to the government.

He was fifty-five years old. It's not too old, but his hair is completely gray. There are not too many wrinkles on the face, and a pair of sharp eyes are like eagles, which always give people urgent pressure. He didn't say much, but every time he spoke, he was sonorous and to the point. In short, this is a powerful figure who can influence the decision-making of Mr. Prime Minister to a certain extent.

"I'm Winston. Downton, who are you? ”

Take the phone, Winston. Downton scanned the number, it was from the United States, the expression on his face remained unchanged, but his heart began to think quickly, considering the other party's intentions.

"Hello, I'm Andrew. Brian, the special staff of the President of the United States! ”

For such a character who plays the same role, Andrew. Brian didn't dare to be careless, he introduced himself without humility or arrogance at the moment, he knew very well that the other party was also aware of his existence, and immediately even omitted the greeting link, and asked bluntly, "We want to make a special request." ”

"What requirements?"

Winston. Downton blinked, realizing almost immediately what the other man was saying. In mid-November, the G20 will be held, with the participation of the leaders of the world's major economies, and the US president will inevitably have a meeting with the British prime minister. What the other party said now is discussing the content of that time.

"We want the Prime Minister of Ireland to be able to join in when the President and the Prime Minister are talking, is that not too much?"

Andrew. Brian said bluntly, "Yes, Mr. Prime Minister of Ireland." ”

"Why?"

For this request from the American side, Winston. Downton was quite surprised, but it was impossible for him to show such emotion in his tone at such a time, so he immediately asked in a flat tone, "I want to know why." ”

"For what the specific reason, Mr. President will personally interview Mr. Prime Minister."

Andrew. Brian said lightly, "Please keep this matter a high degree of secrecy, we don't want to leak a little bit of rumors here." ”

"Got it!"

Being able to be in this position, Winston. Downton naturally knows that there are many things that cannot be asked, but since the American side has revealed this information, the rest is the British side, and it is not difficult to guess the intentions of the American side in the current world situation, "We will contact you later." ”

After saying that, he snapped and hung up the phone very simply.

"It's a freak!"

Listening to the beep coming from the microphone, Andrew . Brian sighed helplessly and said helplessly. Then he touched his head and thought about it, took out his mobile phone again, and sent a text message to Zhong Shi.

“G20！”

That's what the SMS is all about. (To be continued.) )

PS: I really didn't expect this day to be so bleak...... It's not like everyone is busy watching the game...... I hope this depression is only temporary, continue to be cheeky and ask everyone to actively vote for support, thank you~