If a long position of 0703 is opened at a price of $7.05, and then a short position of 0704 is opened at a price of $5.05, a typical shoulder arbitrage combination is formed, and the difference of $2.0 in the middle is where the profit of this position lies.

If this spread is maintained and widened, the shoulder arbitrage combination will continue to be profitable. And as soon as the spread between the portfolio of shoulder arbitrage positions narrows, the combination loses money.

The narrowing of the spread between such combinations is not the worst case. The worst thing is that in the case of a narrowing of the spread, the two-month contract also loses money, which puts the entire position in danger of collapsing.

For example, the price of the 0703 contract is reduced to $6.50, and the price of the 0704 contract is reduced to $4.90, and the spread between the two is narrowed to $1.6. In this case, while the two months of contracts were mixed, and the combination as a whole lost $4,000 in terms of spreads, this was not the case.

First of all, the price of the March contract fell, and the loss of $5,500 per contract was made up for in order to maintain the position. In addition, although the 0704 contract is profitable, it is impossible for this part of the funds to be in the pocket until it is closed. So, in fact, the loss of this portfolio is $9,500.

To make matters worse, if the price of the 0704 contract rises to $5.25, the spread between the two contracts narrows to $1.25, minus the $7,500 loss on the difference. The 0704 contract also lost $2,000, and the combined losses of the three would amount to a staggering $15,000, which is not far from the $20,000 profit obtained by the previous arbitrage.

If it's just a contract, it can be closed in the market in time, because there is enough liquidity. And if it is a huge position, it is basically impossible to close it for a while and a half, especially in the case of news leakage, the market is full of coveters, and it is even more difficult to close the position in this case.

Right now. This is the case with the Withered Fund. This is also the reason why even after hedging, losses can expand rapidly.

"What should we do now?"

At this time, Hu Ping walked up to Zhong Shi and stared at the other party with burning eyes, waiting for Zhong Shi to give a clear answer.

At present, there are two paths in front of Hu Ping's team. The first, naturally, is to continue the attack. Waiting for the other party's losses to become more and more severe; The second way is to take the opportunity to close the position. Because they have enough chips on hand, they can pocket their profits just when the other party is at the end of their rope, but this is it. I'm afraid that the other party will be spared.

Hu Ping leans towards the latter, because for him and his team, the current profits are enough to satisfy them, even more than they made at the peak of the Kaminmen brothers, and with a 12% share, they can get at least more than $100 million in shares, which is enough money for him to start his own hedge fund.

However, he couldn't figure out Zhong Shi's thoughts, even if the entire Immortal Flower Fund collapsed, I am afraid that it would not be looked at by this young man, Hu Ping thought secretly.

"Keep looking, don't rush to close the position."

Sure enough, after frowning and thinking for a while, Zhong Shi gave a negative opinion, Hu Ping nodded silently, but the next quarter of a quarter of Zhong Shi's explanation made him suddenly feel a sense of surprise, "Don't forget jì, this time it's not just us who covet the withered flowers, and even I suspect that they have an alliance." This time we got a relatively large position by mistake, which can only be described as luck. You should note that the New York Journal reported two days ago that the agreement not to sell the asset portfolio of the withered fund was not reached, and we don't know exactly what happened in this, but it is certain that someone must be behind it. Therefore, if we close the position now, it may disrupt their overall plan, and the best outcome at that time is that they will forcefully eat our closed position, continue to short and not wither, the worst is ......"

Zhong Shi didn't continue, but instead sneered, obviously indicating that there might be a situation that no one wanted to see in the future.

After hearing Zhong Shi's cocoon-like analysis, Hu Ping was shocked, he realized at this time that he was carried away by interests for a while, and he didn't even think that there were others behind him, and his face turned red at the moment, and he couldn't say a word for a long time.

"You don't have to take it too seriously, after all, this matter is too complicated, and no one can fully control the situation." Taking in Hu Ping's embarrassment, Zhong Shi thought about it for a while, guessed his thoughts, and said softly, "Now all we have to do is wait and see what the other party is thinking." But then again, even if we don't do anything now, we're still going to have a lot of profits in our pockets, aren't we? ”

Hearing Zhong Shi's words, everyone laughed.

……

"Did they make a move?"

In the trading room of the Sagittarius fund, it is a busy scene at this time. Sagittarius traders are the most sensitive to unusual fluctuations in the gas market, they know very well what is happening and what they should do, so from the morning they become the most active force in the market to attack positions that do not wither.

Despite the lucrative benefits, John. Arnold didn't see the slightest smile on his face, he knew very well that there were still many variables, and although he and the alliance had secretly done something to sabotage the most possible request for help from the Withered Fund, this did not rule out that there would be unexpected situations.

As for the two "analysts", they were sent by him to the Caribbean Sea for the first time, where they will enjoy the sun of autumn all day.

After cutting off the back road of the Withered Flower Fund, there is only one remaining question that Arnold believes is the biggest threat, that is, whether Hu Ping's position will choose to be closed at this time. Although he decided that no one had chosen to close the position at this time, years of experience taught him. Just because something is unlikely doesn't mean it won't happen.

"No, boss, it looks like they've thought of it with us!"

Conrad. Gore carefully observed the market, and finally said firmly, "The position of the withered flower has collapsed, and this is a good time to take advantage of the victory, and no one will choose to close the position at this time." Rest assured, boss, I'm sure they'll make a wise choice. ”

"Nope! No! Arnold shook his head again and again, and said. I always had a hunch. The Withered Flower Foundation survived this crisis, but since the other party did not close the position at this time, they would not choose to close the position if they could not think of a specific psychological price. But if it weren't for them, I wouldn't know who it was. Oh, my God. It really makes me feel uncomfortable. Damn, what the hell is going to happen? ”

Hearing Arnold say this, Conrad's brows were also raised. Although he basically didn't know anything, it didn't prevent him from making a thoughtful expression at this time, showing a good employee posture in front of his boss.

……

"Damn, how's it going?"

After making the painful decision to close the position, Nick knew that this naked act of admitting defeat to the market would inevitably lead to the collapse of the entire position, but he had no choice, and the debt collection calls one after another made him so discouraged that he didn't even have time to watch the market.

After finally convincing those customers who were chasing the funds one by one, it was not much time before the morning close, and although he had been mentally prepared enough, after hearing the specific figures of the loss, Nick's face was still involuntarily gloomy.

"$3.4 billion, that's the current amount of loss!" Bond. Hunter shook his head and said a number lightly. At this time, he was completely numb, seeing the piles of numbers rising, his mood changed from the previous chagrin, regret, shock, and shock to numbness, and when he said "3.4 billion US dollars", he couldn't even make a wry smile.

The corners of Nick's mouth twitched rapidly, and the number was so shocking to him that his lips trembled for a long time, and he couldn't say a word. Finally calming down his feelings, he asked bitterly, "How much has it been flattened?" ”

"Not much, basically the big institutions in the market have not appeared, and they are still waiting to continue to collapse, and there are only about 3,000 hands at present, all months." Hunter finally got a little expression, and after a self-deprecating smile, he said hatefully, "One morning, they were so greedy that they were not satisfied with the spread between their positions in March and April. ”

In fact, although the position of the withered fund has not yet been liquidated, it is only one step away. But both brokers and exchanges are very tricky about their positions, because there are so many of them, accounting for as much as 40% of all open positions in NYMEX, and if they are forced to close their positions at this time, I am afraid that all the months of contracts will have an avalanche of decline, which is definitely not what they want to see.

"When it comes to greed, you're not far from them!"

After a meaningful look at Hunter, Nick turned and walked towards his office, where he faintly heard the phone ring in his office again, and his head began to ache again at the thought of having to rack his brains to make all kinds of assurances and explanations to the other party.

"Your greed is not weaker than mine!" Looking at Nick's distant back, Hunter retorted not to be outdone. But the next moment, he suddenly felt that this kind of quarrel was meaningless, and immediately sighed, cheered up, and once again instructed the traders how to close the position.

Perhaps, this is the only thing he can do now.

"What, someone wants to buy our position, how is this possible?"

Nick returned to his office and numbly picked up the phone, only to be so shocked by the first words that he didn't have time to think about whether the news was true or not.

Nowadays, as long as he catches a straw, whether he can save his life or not, he will hold on to it. But even so, he was inexplicably shocked when he heard that someone was interested in buying a position in the Withering Fund.

"What, is it him?" After composing himself, Nick began to listen carefully to what the other party had to say, and his face began to change. After a full five minutes, the corners of his eyebrows and eyes gradually eased, and after taking a long breath, he said lightly to the other side of the microphone: "Okay, let him send someone over to talk first, I'm afraid it's only like this now." ”

After hanging up the phone, he thought about it for a while, and suddenly thought of something, and immediately rushed out of the door, shouting at the trading floor: "The situation has changed, don't close the position for the time being!" ”

The traders, who had already finished their morning trading, were heading outside in twos and threes, and it was time for dinner. For the morning trading, they all looked depressed, knowing that the loss still had to continue. But after hearing Nick's yell, most of the traders looked up in amazement, looked at their boss in bewilderment, and various thoughts rose in their hearts. (To be continued......)

PS: PS: According to the public number jù, I found that no matter how I calculated, it did not correspond to the facts. Of course, I don't suspect that the report is untrue, but the problem is that I didn't understand it thoroughly, so I had to stop the update slowly, and I really can't help everyone. By the way, thank you book friends for 140829195857889 monthly pass!