Chapter 276: A series of heavy blows
The mass riots in Greece shook the whole of Europe, and the scenes of the unrest were transmitted to every corner of the world through satellite television, and Hong Kong was no exception.
"Tsk, stupid people, don't they know that if this continues to make trouble, the Greek government will have the only way to go bankrupt?"
Looking at the chaotic scenes on the TV screen, Jiang Shan exclaimed, "If the government goes bankrupt, then the rest of the country, whether it is shutting down, laying off employees, or restructuring debts, will follow the old path of today, and the consequences will be far more serious than now." These people, for their own petty profits, actually plan to go against the general trend? ”
"No way, not everyone has a spirit of sacrifice and vision!"
Zhong Shi frowned and looked at the TV screen, and when he saw this scene of the conflict between the two sides, he subconsciously shook his head, "Fortunately, these countries are not in their hands, otherwise there will really be big trouble." ”
"According to your estimates, will tomorrow's vote pass?"
Jiang Shan soon lost interest in the television images and began to seriously consider the aftermath of the whole thing: "It is said that there are more than 2 million people in a general strike, more than half of the population in the whole of Greece, and this level of strike is very rare in any country. This will inevitably affect the opinion of some legislators, and in this case, will they be likely to defect? ”
"No!"
Zhong Shi replied categorically, "No matter how stupid the people are, at the point of being a councilor, no one is easy to follow. With the exception of the opposition parties, the ruling party will certainly unite to get this parliament passed, not only to keep the current Greek government, but also to keep their position. ”
"Even if someone dies?"
Regarding Zhong Shi's conclusion, Jiang Shan maintained a high degree of skepticism. However, he did not refute Zhong Shi's conclusion, because it was meaningless, "Even if it passes, then what should we do next?" ”
Instead of questioning Zhong Shi's conclusion, it is better to follow Zhong Shi's train of thought and see how he will operate next. Jiangshan is very clear. Whether Greece passes or not, it has already dealt a huge blow to investor confidence.
"Wait, you'll see soon!"
Zhong Shi still maintained his usual mystery, and did not tell all the plans, but deliberately let Jiang Shan think to himself, "If you were to be me, what would you do next?" ”
"Me?"
Jiang Shan was stunned for a moment, pointed to his nose and thought for a long time. Then he replied with a frown, "Continue to stir up antagonism in Greece and let them go on strike again?" ”
"What else?"
After nodding slightly, Zhong Shi showed an approving look on his face and continued to ask, "Is there anything else?" ”
"Anything else?"
Being plucked by Zhong Shi like this, Jiang Shan's eyes suddenly lit up, and he replied overjoyed. "By the way, and the European Union. Even if the EU declares a helping hand to Greece. But based on their decision-making mechanisms and the reaction of governments, we can still create a wave of panic in the market. ”
"The response is quick, but what else?"
Zhong Shi couldn't help but slap his palms twice, appreciating Jiang Shan's reaction, but then asked reluctantly, "Except for these." What else can you think of? ”
"This ......"
Jiang Shan hesitated, lowered his head and pondered for a moment, still finding nothing, and when he raised his head to look at Zhong Shi again, there was an inquiring expression on his face. "Where else can I make a fuss?"
"Actually, there are many more!"
Zhong Shi can't say that he is very satisfied with Jiangshan's performance, but it is still within an acceptable range, after all, the other party's pattern is far inferior to his own, which is the reason for experience and experience. But with a little bit of dialing, Jiang Shan will definitely understand quickly, after all, he is a smart person. At that moment he stared at the other party, and only said two words softly, "spread".
Like Hong Zhong Da Lu, Jiang Shan's face suddenly showed a look of sudden realization, and after thinking for a while, he gave a heartfelt thumbs up, and also said two words to Zhong Shi, "Gao Ming!" ”
……
On May 6, before the Greek parliament voted on the new fiscal austerity bill, the bearish forces in Europe began to strike first!
Ratings agency Moody's released its latest assessment report on the same day, which directly indicates that the Greek debt crisis will spread to the banking sector in many European countries. Italy, Portugal, Spain, Ireland and the United Kingdom are among the most crisis-prone countries.
This is another assessment after the three major rating agencies joined forces last month to conduct a new round of downgrades for Greece. Although S&P and Fitch were not involved, the report was a bombshell based on the current chaotic domestic situation in Greece, causing an uproar in the capital markets of several countries.
Unlike the last assessment of sovereign debt, Moody's has taken direct aim at the banking sector in these countries, where the banking system holds large amounts of their national debt. In the event of a sovereign debt crisis, the banking system will bear the brunt of it, and there is no possibility of avoiding it.
With the announcement of the report, the named national capital markets reacted quickly, with the Milan stock market falling by 4.27% and Italy's most famous Mediterranean investment bank falling by more than 8%.
The Financial Times index in London fell 1.52%, and bank stocks generally took a heavy hit. However, to the market's relief, London is not part of the eurozone, and they still have independent currency issuance, so they are far less likely to have a sovereign debt crisis than the other countries named.
The stock markets of Madrid, Edinburgh and Lisbon have also fallen to varying degrees, but they are not as serious as those that happened in Italy. Because before that, Italy was the third largest economy in the entire eurozone, after Germany and France, it is almost certain that the entire eurozone will not be spared in the event of a real catastrophe for them.
However, to the slight comfort of the market, later on the 6th, the Greek parliament forced through a new fiscal austerity package despite strong public opposition. Although the demonstrations continued on this day and three members of the ruling party voted against it, all this did not prevent the Papandreou government from adopting the plan.
This plan means that Greece can receive assistance from the IMF and the Central Bank of the European Union, and although there are still various speculations about its follow-up, it at least means that the contradictions in Greece have now been resolved.
Then there's the EU.
But history has condemned this day not to be a peaceful one. This is despite the fact that Greece has adopted a fiscal austerity package. But the bad news kept coming, this time with Spain as the protagonist.
Later, in the middle of nowhere, the market suddenly began to spread that the Spanish government intends to seek help from the European Central Bank, and in the near future it will formally ask the ECB European Central Bank to buy Spanish government bonds to ease the current tightening fiscal deficit.
It also happened with the Spanish Ministry of Finance.
On the same day, the Spanish Ministry of Finance issued a statement announcing the issuance of a 5-year government bond of 2.3 billion euros at an average yield of 3.58% on the same day.
To the surprise of the market, this yield is much higher than the yield of the same government bond issued by the Spanish government in March, when the yield on the 5-year bond issuance was only 2.5%, and now the yield has soared by more than 50% from the previous period.
This is a dangerous sign that the number of institutions asking for 5-year Spanish bonds in the market is so much that they have to lower their prices to make a sale, otherwise they will not be issued at all.
I would like to add that the issuance of government bonds is conducted by auction. That is, everyone makes a preliminary estimate of the 5-year treasury bonds, and then gets the treasury bonds from the Ministry of Finance in the form of bidding and pays the funds, and the yield of this trip can generally be regarded as the basis of the interest rate. While the 3.58% yield is not outrageous, the change from the previous period is quite striking.
In this context, the market suddenly rumors!
Soon, the news appeared that the Spanish government would soon make a request for assistance from Europe to allow the ECB to buy the bonds it issued, as it was unable to cope with rising government bond yields and to cope with growing fiscal spending at home.
Unlike Greece, Spain, Europe's fourth-largest economy, did not experience unrestrained spending by the central government, but rather the rapid expansion of the country's real estate market, which caused the bubble to burst, leading to today's soaring fiscal deficit.
Specifically, before 2008, the real estate market in Spain formed a huge heat, and a large number of foreign capital poured into Spain. Spanish politicians, for their own political ends, have brutally intervened in local savings banks, which has also led to a large amount of savings flowing into the real estate market.
And when the subprime mortgage crisis spread to Spain, the disaster began, and the inflow of foreign capital was greatly reduced, or even reversed. House prices fell sharply, and the bubble that formed quickly burst.
After the bursting of the housing bubble, it directly hit two sectors, the lending banking industry and the highly labor-intensive construction industry, of which the construction industry brought a large number of unemployment to Spain, and many families had to give up their housing payments because of the sharp decline in income, which made the banking industry the receiver of these houses, resulting in a large number of bad debts.
The Spanish government incurs debt in order to pay for high unemployment. By May 2010, the number of unemployed people in Spain had reached around 20% of the total population. For such a large group of people, the government has to pay a small amount of living allowance every month to support them. It was this monthly fee that brought down the Spanish government.
The market blew up all at once! (To be continued.) )
PS: Thank you to lightfish, stronger933, squinting to the sun, TinyBee, tanding and other book friends for voting for monthly tickets! Thank you Nanquan 99 and the electromagnetist for your continued reward! Thank you very much for your active support during this time, I hope that next month will be a good start, although I can't see the future clearly, but I believe that with everyone's support, the results of this book will definitely improve, and the author will continue to work hard. It's the last day of this month, don't say too much, everyone will vote for it depending on the situation and votes~~~