The situation developed far more ferocious and tragic than Julian Robertson imagined, and the very next day, Dongseo Securities, the fourth largest securities firm in South Korea, announced its bankruptcy.

To add insult to injury, the rating agency Moody's also adjusted the credit ratings of South Korean companies on a large scale on this day, including Korea Telecom, LG, Samsung Electric, Hyundai Motor, Seoul government, Daegu government, etc., 31 companies or government agencies have been downgraded by Moody's credit ratings. This is the first time in Moody's history that such a large-scale credit rating downgrade has rekindled fears of a debt default in South Korea.

More and more companies are involved in the deep pool of the financial crisis, and there are rumors in the market that South Korean companies actually owe as much as $100 billion, and the IMF has provided $57 billion in funds, which is simply a drop in the bucket.

Despite the news that the Bank of Korea has once again entered the market to intervene, the market is not cold, because at this time, the entire Korean banking community is too busy to deal with these bad debts, and how much dollar can the central bank (Bank of Korea) be anxious to deal with these bad debts?

On the 14th, when the won began to trade, the exchange rate of the won against the US dollar continued to fall, continuing yesterday's downward trend, and soon fell below the level of 1,800 won to 1 dollar, and after breaking through this level, it fell again, directly rushing to the exchange rate of 1,900 won to 1 dollar.

"Zhong Sheng? Are we still closing our positions today according to the original plan? Ren Ruowei, who already knew that his defeat had been decided, was much calmer today, calmly looking at the price changes on the disk. Unhurriedly, he said, "Judging from the current downward trend, it will soon approach the level of 2,000 won to 1 dollar, and it will not be too late for us to close the position then." ”

"Really?" Zhong Shi touched his nose, his expression was slightly embarrassed, "Ren Sheng, if I told you that the news that the won would fall to 2,000 won to 1 dollar was released by me, would you still think so?" ”

"......" Ren Ruowei's expression was instantly sluggish, and he turned his head with great difficulty. Stared at Zhong Shi with a daylight expression for a long time. Only then did he give a thumbs up, gritted his teeth and said, "Zhong Sheng, you are ruthless!" ”

Between the rapid spinning of the brain. Ren Ruowei figured out the cause and effect. Let the market think by means of letting the wind out. The KRW was far from what was expected, and it quickly unwound positions while the market was still in pessimism, and then left the current wave of short-selling institutions at high levels.

And if you do what you think. Close the position when it reaches the 2000 position, not to mention whether there is such a possibility, that is, at that time, I am afraid that all the eyes of the market will be staring at the hedge fund that is leading the trend, and as long as there is a slight large buy order, it will be considered that they are closing the position. When the time comes, short-selling institutions will be able to divide the profits of hedge funds in three or two clicks, although their overall position may still be profitable, but compared with expectations, it will definitely be much worse.

That's the price the bellwethers have to pay.

Although Zhong Shi instigated some Hong Kong consortiums to short the won, he also had to beware that these people would stumble behind his back. It is important to know that the basis of everyone's cooperation is interests, and there is no doubt that wherever there are interests, there will be struggles.

After taking a deep breath, Zhong Shi waved his hand slightly at the waiting traders, and said softly, "Let's start!" ”

……

Manhattan, New York, USA.

When he heard the news that Dongxi Securities had declared bankruptcy, Julian Robertson was naturally overjoyed, and there was nothing more exciting than hearing such news on this day, and he even thought that this was God's guidance to him, so that he could continue to make a fortune in South Korea at this time.

There is more than one good news, Moody's has "just happened" to downgrade the credit rating of Korean companies at this time, and if you think about it with your toes, you can think that tonight's won will be a big drop again.

Soon, when Julian Robertson saw the familiar buying figure in the market again, his joy turned into a thick suspicion, and his slightly white brow began to tighten.

"What the hell is this guy going to do?" After thinking about it for a long time and not figuring it out, Julian Robertson simply gathered everyone in charge of the won together, hoping to use everyone's wisdom to find a reasonable logic to explain this trading behavior that was obviously contrary to the market situation.

"Could it be the intervention of the Bank of Korea?" The first to open the cavity was Billy. Kim, who was the first to notice this, targeted the Bank of Korea after several visits to powerful buyers in the market.

Robert Brown, an economist in charge of the Asian market. Setron shook his head slightly, and said in an uncertain tone, "Makes sense, but it's unlikely. Not to mention whether the Bank of Korea has such strength, let's just say that this style of trading is too high-profile, aren't they afraid of being exposed? It is said that South Korea currently only has $3.2 billion in foreign exchange reserves to support until the end of the year, and the South Korean government has also asked the IMF to allocate a second bailout as soon as possible. ”

Hearing this, Billy. Kim tilted his head and thought about it again, and then he turned heavily towards Robert. Setron nodded, agreeing with him.

"If it's not the Bank of Korea, then there's only one possibility, and that's a hedge fund like us. This buying behavior is to close the position, and behind it is that they believe that the won has fallen to the bottom and there will be no further decline. While everyone was pondering, a man named Dan. The forex trader in Morehead spoke suddenly.

This trader is in charge of the yen market, and although the economy is second only to the United States and the economic base is much stronger than that of these countries where the currency crisis broke out, the trend of the yen is still inevitably affected by currencies such as the Thai baht and the Korean won, as the Korean won market has recently attracted the attention of the entire Asian market.

Therefore, as a trader of the yen, you should also pay close attention to these factors that can affect the trend of the yen. This includes the rise and fall of the won.

"Nope! No! No! Julian Robertson shook his head vigorously at Dan. Morehead waved his hand and said, "I tested Druckenmiller yesterday, they didn't short too many positions in the won market, only a few hundred million dollars, and Stanley told me unequivocally that they didn't move on the won." In fact, they are now overwhelmed by the rupiah they have at hand and simply don't have the heart to think about it. ”

Julian Robertson and Stanley. Druckenmiller's personal relationship was very good. This is a well-known fact within the Tiger Fund. So when Julian Robertson said this, almost everyone subconsciously excluded the Quantum Fund. Specifically, it will be just Dan. The possibility of what Morehead said is ruled out.

"But, gentlemen!" Cinnabar. Morehead couldn't help but be a little anxious. Argued red-faced. "Gentlemen. Quantum Fund is not the only one in the world with such a large scale of funds, not to mention that Tudor Investments and Moore Capital have this strength. If they buy hundreds of billions of won, I'm afraid that no one here thinks it's impossible. In addition, as far as I know, there are quite a few strong funds in the Japanese market, and some of them are not inferior to us. In addition, in London, Frankfurt and even Hong Kong, it is a big deal to find institutions or companies with such a scale of capital. ”

"Dan, what the hell are you trying to say?" After listening to it for a long time, most of the people were confused, including Julian Robertson, seeing what he said going around and around, "Tiger" simply asked straight to the point.

Seeing the big boss speak, Dan. Morehead stopped beating around the bush and poured out what was in his mind: "Ladies and gentlemen, it doesn't really matter who is buying the won at the moment. It's important not to let the market think that we did it. Think about it, if at this time it is rumored that the Tiger Fund will start to unwind its positions on the Korean won, what will be the market's reaction at that time? ”

Everyone here is an extremely active character, and just after a little thought, I understand that Dan. Morehead's meaning immediately sounded a gasp of cold breathing, and even Julian Robertson's face changed.

"Dan, according to what you say, we should stop selling and do nothing?" There was silence for half a minute, and then someone asked, and the person who spoke was Billy. Kim, after all, he is the one who is directly responsible for the buying and selling of the won. At this time, he had just recovered from the shock, and his tone was slightly unkind.

To everyone's surprise, Dan. Morehead shook his head directly, categorically rejected the proposal, and said: "Billy, not an offense, if we don't do anything, I'm afraid we'll be in trouble immediately." ”

"Huh?" Billy. Jin Yi frowned, just about to have a seizure, but suddenly a flash of inspiration flashed in his mind, which reminded him of something, and he slapped his thigh and said, "Not bad!" We really shouldn't do nothing! In fact, we should close the position and join the buying side as soon as possible! ”

After finishing speaking, he was still unsatisfied, and he rushed to Dan. Morehead gave a thumbs up and praised without hesitation: "Well done, man! "Where is the previous unhappiness between the manners and the feet?

Seeing his reaction, everyone was stunned, and most of them showed puzzled expressions in their eyes. But soon someone else figured out why, and it didn't take long for everyone involved in the discussion to understand.

"The herd effect! What a goddamn herd effect! Julian Robertson wiped his hair, his face was very ugly, and after seeing that everyone's eyes were focused on him, he said bitterly, "In that case, then let's close the position." ”

The herd effect refers to the fact that people are often influenced by the majority to follow the thoughts or behaviors of the masses, also known as the "herd effect". People will follow what the public agrees with, dismiss their opinions by default, and do not subjectively think about the significance of events.

In economics, the herd effect refers to the presence of investors in the market who have not formed their own expectations or have not received first-hand information, and they will change their behavior according to the behavior of other investors.

To put it bluntly, this effect is that what the master buys, others will follow. Just like the market in later generations is enthusiastic about Warren Buffett and the A-share market is chasing Wang Yawei, as long as they announce what they have bought, others will not consider the logical support, whether they have opened a position and other reasons, and enter the market in one go, which may cause the target to skyrocket in the short term.

And the current situation is that Julian Robertson knows very well that although they have not yet closed the Korean won, almost the market knows that he is the weather vane of the market and the "leader". The current large-scale buying behavior is very likely to be regarded as a liquidation, as long as someone has a little bit of a voice, other "sheep" will immediately change direction, from short to close or even long, regardless of the fundamentals.

Although it will not damage the income of the average position, compared with the price that has not yet appeared similar rumors, the profit has undoubtedly shrunk a lot, so it is inevitable to close the position as soon as possible. In this case, even Julian Robertson was unwilling and had to be forced to choose to close the position.

In this way, Tiger Fund quickly changed its strategy and began to close its positions at a high level. The confluence of their funds and the Tianyu Fund immediately launched a strong impact on the surging selling in the market, and the exchange rate, which had fallen to 1,900 won to 1 dollar, began to slowly rise and recover. But most of the participants in the market are not aware of this change at all and are still selling like crazy. In this game of buying and selling, the won on this day was finally fixed at the level of 1,891 won per dollar, setting a new low for the won against the dollar, but it did not fall to the range of 1,900.

After the market closed, there was once again gossip from the South Korean side, and the Bank of Korea intervened again today and will invest a huge amount of money to intervene as soon as possible to ensure that the won will not plummet again. Naturally, the market took the news as a joke again.

South Korean Finance Minister Lim Chang-yeol also made a public statement today in response to the market's view that the newly elected South Korean government might go against the current agreement with the IMF, saying: "We have no reservations about the IMF's commitment to implement these conditions. ”

In addition to these, the South Korean side also announced that it had a surplus of $500 million in the current account of the balance of payments last month, which was the first time in 94 years that the South Korea had a surplus on this item.

The ants on the hot pot could no longer sit still, and could only jump out on their own initiative. Despite facing a general election, Kim Yong-sam's regime must stand at the bottom of the storm, and after the won plummeted for two consecutive days, they finally began to try to release some positive news to the market. It's just that what the effect is, I'm afraid only God knows! (To be continued......)

PS: Thank you book friend tokihikari for voting for the first monthly pass of the month!