Chapter 316: Rumors Rise Again
Rarely, no one objected to Osborne's volunteer, although he was suspected of being a thief.
Everyone here is not a fool, and obviously understands this truth, but they understand the intentions of the Germans even more, and use this proposal to make the British choose to take sides, and completely draw a line with the Americans in this matter.
It was precisely because he understood this truth that Osborne couldn't wait to jump out and show his attitude.
"If it's true, what do we do?"
Portugal's finance minister glanced at Osborne with concern and turned to Germany's finance minister, Wolfgang. "Will they offer preferential terms than Greece as bargaining chips?" ”
Wolfgang. Sculpt Ibula is almost seventy years old, and his face is full of ravines. But no one here dares to underestimate this old man in a wheelchair, because his legendary life and tough personality have made Germany play a very important role in the European Union.
"I don't have to talk about it!"
"At least Germany will not agree." If they don't want to be helped, then let them fend for themselves. Or they could consider taking refuge with the Americans. But if they want to get help from us, they have to follow the rules we set! ”
"Not only Ireland, but if other countries come to the rescue, our rescue conditions will be the same!"
He gave the Portuguese Minister of Finance a deep look and added, "Otherwise we won't be able to account to our taxpayers!" ”
Portugal's finance minister darkened his face and said no more.
What he meant by these words was to ask tentatively whether Portugal, which was in high risk of falling into debt crisis, would follow this example if Ireland had opened a hole as a result. But he was easily caught up in his intentions by Sculptor Ibl, and ended up with a gray nose.
The bailouts from the EU and the IMF have high strings attached, such as further opening up markets, raising tax rates for small and medium-sized enterprises, and reducing fiscal spending and agricultural subsidies. This will inevitably touch certain segments of the rescued country. That's one of the reasons why Ireland has been slow to apply for rescue.
After hearing the tough statement of the German finance minister, the finance ministers of other countries did not speak, but they did not agree with Sso Ibler's statement in their hearts. In fact, they all knew very well that in the end, when they negotiated with the Irish government, they would have to make some concessions to them. It's just that these concessions won't affect their ability to repay their debts in the future, because certain principles must be followed.
This is because there is one more to verify the authenticity of the conditions provided by the United States. As a result, the entire meeting of European finance ministers was extended from two days to three days, and the final result was naturally that the British side confirmed that the United States had indeed intervened, so that the attitude of the European finance ministers finally softened and sent representatives to negotiate with the Irish government again.
……
"The news has been confirmed, the British have officially withdrawn from our program!"
Two days later, the United States officially announced that the British had unequivocally stated that they would withdraw from the US-led Irish rescue plan. Prior to this, certain British consortia had unilaterally informed their partners in the United States.
"So to speak. Everything you say becomes reality! ”
Paulson said with trepidation, "Thankfully, as you reminded me earlier, I have closed 60% of my position, and even if Ireland's government bond yield falls to 7% now, I will not lose money." ”
"Yes!"
Griffin also said, "Excluding my open positions, my fund has made a yield of 3 pips so far, which is such a profit in such a short period of time." I'm already very satisfied. ”
"But what about the euro?"
As long as Ireland does not formally announce its receipt of bailout, the remaining share of the national debt will be able to be bought from the market at a higher price. So they are not worried about not being able to close their positions. But the euro is in trouble, and the euro to the dollar has been rising every day for the past three days, and has now risen to a high of $1.3676 per euro.
At this current level, it will be difficult for Bell Stone Group to close their position, because if the price continues to rise, it will soon approach their opening price. The other is because if they make a move at this time, they push up the euro even more, because their positions are very large.
Among those present, Dario has established the highest short position in the euro, amounting to a staggering $20 billion. This includes instruments such as spot, futures, and options. The euro fluctuated by 0.1 percentage points per cent. His gains or losses amounted to $20 million.
They had discussed this question a few days earlier, but Clock Stone vaguely did not give an answer. And now, three trading days later, the euro has risen by 1.41%, which makes the whole thing immediately urgent.
"Fortunately, tomorrow and the day after tomorrow are rest days, so we have a lot of time to operate!"
Zhong Shi tapped on the tabletop, and the sound of clattering continued to reach everyone's ears. No one spoke, they all knew that Zhong Shi was planning, and they didn't dare to disturb each other's thoughts out loud. After a few minutes, Zhong Shi stopped his meaningless beating and said slowly, "Now it seems that we have to suppress the momentum of the euro's rise." ”
"Gentlemen, how much money do you think Europe will come to Ireland's aid this time?"
"Maybe we need some money to save Ireland's banking sector, but it's two different things to stabilize Ireland's financial sector and inject liquidity into their economic system to stimulate recovery." The latter is certainly much more than the former. I think at least for Europe's finance ministers, the latter is the rescue model, because it can be done once and for all. ”
"What do you mean?"
Dario's eyes lit up instantly, "What Mr. Zhong means is that this number will not be too small, but if it is too big, it will have a negative impact on the market?" ”
"It's nature!"
Zhong Shi replied categorically, "If this figure is too large and exceeds market expectations, then whether the EU will be able to come up with the same amount of money to save other countries in the future, that is, the subsequent capacity will be greatly discounted." ”
It must be said here that although the European Rescue Mechanism has amassed a total of 750 billion euros. But in addition to the 250 billion euros provided by the IMF. The remaining 500 billion euros is not a one-step approach. Even IMF funds are provided in installments.
Although governments have agreed to provide the money, the disbursement of the money will depend on the international situation. In other words, most of these funds are now sleeping in the treasury coffers of various countries. They only make disbursements when they need them.
Plus, after rescuing Greece with a huge sum of 150 billion euros. The total amount of this funding has fallen to less than 600 billion euros. If Ireland is bailed out at more than €100 billion, the total will quickly fall below €500 billion. Other countries such as Portugal, Spain and even Italy are still waiting to be fed, so it remains to be seen whether the final 500 billion euros will actually guarantee that the debt crisis will not spread on the continent.
The situation in Portugal is similar to that in Ireland, and if there is a need for rescue, the numbers are probably similar to those in Ireland. But Spain is a very large economy, and if they have problems, the money they need to bail out is far from comparable to that of the two countries. At that time, I am afraid that the entire European rescue mechanism will be dragged down by Spain.
That's the crux of the matter.
"What do you mean?"
Everyone understood at this moment, and Dario said in surprise, "That's it." Even if Ireland is eventually rescued, will there still be doubts about the European rescue mechanism? ”
"Not bad!"
"But what is certain is that there is still a lot of room for manoeuvre," Zhong Shi replied firmly. And once the dust settles, that's when the euro officially reverses. I don't know how long it will take, but this is the perfect time for us to try to weigh on the euro as much as possible! ”
"Tell me, what do you need us to do?"
Listened to Zhong Shi's analysis. The others realized that they were about to carry out another round of attacks, and they immediately geared up. Passionately said.
"...... like this"
Zhong Shi lowered his voice and began to command carefully.
……
On the 20th, an article appeared in the European edition of the Wall Street Journal describing the current state of Irish society.
The article starts with education in Ireland, where tuition fees have risen in the past six months, which has forced many college students to drop out because they cannot pay their tuition fees. The second is population loss. In addition to the evacuation of the working population from Poland, 20% of Irish university students have chosen to work abroad, mainly in London. The data provided suggests that a further 150,000 young Irish may choose to work abroad in the next five years.
At the same time, the article said. Not only these young people and the working class, but also the middle class in Ireland have been hit hard. In the world of sport, for example, more than 300 Irish football and hockey players have left Ireland in the first half of this year to look for their next job in the UK, Australia or the US.
Because of the collapse of the construction industry, many families have been plagued by mortgages, and because of the wave of layoffs, many families who were originally middle-class have become unemployed overnight. In this case, they had to struggle.
The article also mentions a well-known figure, the former chairman of the board of directors of Anglo-Irish Bank, Sean Brown. Fitzpatrick, who was once a well-known bigwig, now had to declare bankruptcy.
Finally, the article concludes with the words: "In the most extreme terms, the income tax paid by all the people of Ireland over the next six to seven years may be added up to compensate for the loss of bad bank debts." This is the price that the people of this country pay for their government. Like the Titanic hitting an iceberg, although Ireland announced that it would cut its spending by 15 billion euros in the next four years, this is only a boil and cannot fundamentally solve the problem. It is estimated that there are as many as 70 billion euros of bad debts in Ireland's banking sector as a whole, and cutting spending is nothing more than a futile and reassuring exercise. ”
This article intuitively revealed to the whole world the current state of affairs of the Irish people, and soon spread throughout the world. A description of the coming apocalypse immediately added to the market's pessimism about Ireland.
At the same time, an unverified piece of news began to circulate in the international market. The message is that even though the situation in the country is so tense, the Irish government does not intend to accept the rescue. According to people familiar with the matter, the European Union strongly demanded that the Irish government raise the tax rate, but the Irish government did not hesitate to veto.
It is well known that the use of low tax rates to attract foreign direct investment, and at the same time to reduce the burden of small and medium-sized enterprises with low tax rates, has made Ireland a bridgehead for the entire global capital investment in Europe, thus creating the "Irish model" that has attracted worldwide attention.
But the low tax rate policy has clearly affected the economies of other European countries, which have been criticized before. It would have been understandable to take the opportunity to ask Ireland to adjust its tax rate now. But for the Irish government, the loss of the low tax rate not only means that it will be difficult to attract overseas investment, but also could lead to a massive exodus of existing funds.
Although there is no way to verify the authenticity of the news, this news is very logical and therefore widely accepted by the market. (To be continued.) )
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