CHAPTER XXXVIII. 94 London Copper
The day after entering March, the U.S. economic data for February came out, and this time for the U.S., inflation is no longer expected, but a real possibility.
By this time, Bell Stone had already made $500 million in the European bond market, and in the past week, the German government's 10-year bond yield had risen by a total of 37 basis points, Italy's by 58 basis points, and Spain's by 62 basis points, which was more than double the increase a week ago, and with Bell Stone continuing to increase its position, earnings have also increased by a record amount, doubling in just one week.
"Let's get rid of these positions gradually!" Zhong Shi looked at the traders who had lost a lot of weight and said, this time it has been hard for them, although they are employees of Tianyu Fund, but this time they are operating Zhong Shi's own funds, so after the transaction is over, Zhong Shi still has to share a part of the dividends according to the custom.
"Haode, don't worry, for the sake of our dividends, I will also carefully clear the position." Traders patted their chests and promised that when it came to their own dividends, these people would naturally be very cautious.
The withdrawal of U.S. funds from the European market is almost over, and now is the time to return to value investing, but Zhong Shi is not sure that the expectation of U.S. inflation will still exist in the coming period, and it is even possible to continue to raise interest rates, which he does not know what impact this will have on the European market.
In the long-term U.S. bond market, inflation has become a real threat due to Japan's continued reduction of its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds. As a result, the institutions and consortia that held the bonds were miserable, and the Xinfu Bank in the United States even came to the brink of bankruptcy for a time, and Zuihou was only spared thanks to the intervention of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose by 15 basis points, which means that Bell Stone's 50,000-lot futures bond contract made more than $200 million in profits, much to the excitement of traders in the United States.
"From now on, maintain the 10-year position of long-term US bonds, continue to clear the excess positions, and then repatriate funds to Hong Kong and start buying Hong Kong bonds." Zhong Shi stretched his waist and said with some interest.
"What? Is this going to be evacuated? Louis was stunned. I can't believe my ears. In this case, it was the time to take advantage of the victory to pursue, and why Zhong Shi thought of evacuating.
"Do what I say, isn't this still 10,000 hands of debt finger short bills?" Zhong Shi didn't bother to explain to him, and gave the order a little unreasonably.
See that the defense was fruitless. Louis had no choice but to carry out Bell Stone's orders in a foolish manner. Close long orders in the market. This led to a slight drop in the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond, but in the end, the Tianyu Fund managed to exit the market with a yield of $200 million.
In just one month, the net value of the X-Spatial Global Macro & Commodities Fund reached 1.27. This gain shocked everyone who remained in Hong Kong, and they realized that the manager in charge of the two funds was a person with a keen sense of the market and was able to make huge profits.
In the end, Louis left the United States with $700 million, which will be invested in the bond market in Southeast Asia, and the remaining $500 million will be left by Zhong Shi himself, which he will invest in the London copper market.
……
"You're here?" Zhong Shi nodded to Zhong Yi outside the door, and then subconsciously looked behind him, only to find a figure that surprised him, it was the Miss Zhou Yufang from HSBC.
Zhong Yi scratched his head a little embarrassedly when he saw Zhong Shi looking at him, and said hesitantly, "That...... That ......"
Seeing that Zhong Yi didn't say anything for a long time, Zhou Yufang couldn't help but twist his arm a little angrily, and then said generously: "I heard that Zhong Yi found a job in the United States, so I took advantage of the work vacation to come and have a look." ”
Zhong Shi nodded, and let the two of them into his apartment. Zhongyi is now almost thirty years old, and in the past few years, Fu Hongmakeup has often asked about Zhongyi's love life, and now that he can settle down, it can be regarded as a matter of the old man's heart.
Zhong Yi has passed the doctoral defense, and in March he joined the Shijie Bank in Washington, D.C., in charge of Asian economic analysis, but he is only a junior economist in the elite World Bank, first, the qualifications are too shallow, and the second World Bank has been actively expanding its Asian affairs in recent years, so many Asians have been recruited in American universities.
"Take a look at this." After entering the room, Zhong Yi's face regained a bit of naturalness, and after a few words of greeting, he handed a thin piece of paper to Zhong Shi.
Zhong Shi took the paper, glanced at it, and found that the content on the paper was all related to Southeast Asia, and the words of Thailand, Indonesia and other countries appeared frequently, he was shocked in his heart, and then looked at it seriously.
This is a report on the flow of funds from Europe and the United States, which claims that there is too much uncertainty in the bond markets in Europe and the United States, so these funds are starting to flow into East Asia. The Zuihou report concludes that this will further stimulate economic growth in the Southeast Asian region.
"What do you think?" Seeing that Zhong Shi was silent after putting down the report, Zhong Yi couldn't help but be a little anxious, he came this time to get some views from Zhong Shi.
"This report is all the truth, and I don't have much to say." Zhong Shi said lightly. At this time, in his heart, it was a turbulent wave, it turned out that the root cause of the Southeast Asian financial crisis was here, and these capitals really had ulterior motives, and they actually lurked for three years before they started.
Seeing that Zhong Shi had no opinions, Zhong Yi sighed, and then chatted with Zhong Shi a few more words, and then said goodbye and left with Zhou Yufang. He rarely took a few days off this time, so he naturally wanted to spend two shijie with her.
However, as soon as Zhong Yi walked downstairs, the mobile phone in his hand rang, he smiled at Zhou Yufang a little apologetically, and then walked two steps briskly to pick up the phone in a remote place: "Hello, may I ask who you are?" ”
"It's me!" Zhong Shi's deep voice sounded, "What are your plans for that Miss Zhou?" ”
"Married, of course!" Zhong Yi said with some displeasure. Foreigners have always kept their privacy very secretive, and they have long been deeply influenced by Hong Kong and the United States, so even if his cousin asks about it, he is very unhappy.
"If you want to register your marriage, it's better to register it in the United States." Zhong Shi on the other end of the phone obviously heard his dissatisfaction, and after a moment of silence, such a sentence suddenly popped up.
"Uh...... You go on! Zhong Yi asked curiously. In his opinion, registering in Hong Kong and registering in the United States are not the same thing? How could Zhong Shi say this, but he also knew that his cousin was by no means untargeted, so he waited for his next step.
"Don't you know that U.S. law doesn't have a clause for equal division of property between husband and wife?" Zhong Shi asked rhetorically.
"......" Zhongyi was furious, and then viciously threw down a sentence "Go to death, dare to curse me to divorce in the future!" Then he hung up the phone.
Zhong Shi on the other side of the phone heard the beep sound from the microphone, and couldn't help but sigh: "People in love are fools!" But he wasn't too worried in his heart, after all, Zhong Yi had been by his side for a long time in the past few years, and he believed that he would take care of this matter before getting married.
……
The decision to enter the London copper market Zhong Shi has long been decided, although the US bond market is still a mess, and even the climax has not yet arrived, but Zhong Shi has smelled the risks of this market, first the exchange added short margin, and then the SEC announced a strict investigation into market speculation, and even hinted that there is market manipulation in some seats, in this case, Zhong Shi can only slip away.
After all, this is a wrestling between two countries, and the slightest carelessness will be shattered. Because of the recent changes in the bond market, the New York Stock Exchange even closed the exchange on March 2 to cope with the situation.
10,000 contracts of bonds, distributed to the accounts of several offshore companies, are on the verge of the limit on speculative account positions, which leaves the SEC with nothing to say.
London is the largest copper futures market, among which the largest trading volume is the copper 3 contract, the so-called copper 3 contract, refers to the three-month copper contract, each contract is 3 months as the term, so there are new opening and delivery in the market every day, there is no spot market.
For example, if a contract bought in the market on March 1 for a lot of copper 3 will be delivered on June 1 if it has been held and has not been closed at the end of May. If he opens a buy position on March 2, then the delivery deadline is June 2.
This is due to the demand of the copper market, it is precisely because of the contract design that is somewhat different from the United States, the London LME side can make the metal market so big, and more importantly, the LME is not a daily settlement system, which gives institutions with large amounts of capital the possibility of manipulating the market.
In addition to the on-site market, there are also electronic disk markets and telephone hours, among which the telephone market has the largest trading volume, and what Zhong Shi wants to do this time is the telephone market of copper futures, which is a 24-hour market, which is enough for him to control the overall situation in the United States.
The underlying of the futures is electrolytic copper at the A pole, and each contract is 25 tons of electrolytic copper, which is quoted in US dollars. The current price of copper is about $1,870 per tonne, and one lot of contracts is about $50,000 of the underlying amount, and the original margin given by the LME is 15%, and the maintenance margin is 10%, which means that each contract needs $6,500 or less.
"Hey, hello, is that Mr. Brian?" Zhong Shi dialed the agent's number. It's already 2 p.m. Chicago time, which translates to 7 p.m. in London.
"You're Mr. Zhong!" An authentic London accent came from the microphone, "Are you going to open a position in the copper market?" (To be continued......)