Andrew has been busy lately, and after publishing a television commentary about the Hong Kong market, he has been frequently invited by his peers to communicate but in fact to inquire about the "imminent attack on the won by international hedge funds."

Naturally, all this was done at the behest of Zhong Shi. According to the course of history, it will not be long before international travel funds will launch an attack on the Korean currency. Jong Seok intends to let Hong Kong's capital be earned, or a part of it, rather than letting the gains from the depreciation of the Korean currency be earned by international speculators.

Although it is not clear what the movements of international speculators are doing, Zhong Shi can already create his own seeds, after all, he has about 5 billion US dollars worth of South Korean currency in his hands, if these are poured into the market, I believe that the won will definitely have a lot of fluctuations in the short term, and this fluctuation after the analysis and amplification of people with intentions, it may eventually evolve into a rumor that is enough to affect the market.

"Come back!"

Seeing that Andrew was shaking his head and preparing to leave, Zhong Shi shouted in time, and when he saw Andrew, he turned his head and asked behind him, "How has the result of your 'public relations' been in the past two days?" Why don't you report to me, the big boss? ”

"Hey!" Andrew let out a long sigh and said a little gloomy, "It's all characters who don't see rabbits and don't scatter eagles, and they don't believe what I say at all." I felt like a clown, talking so much that my saliva was drying up, and as a result, they only talked about thinking about it, and never gave a clear answer, and I wondered if I was communicating with aliens! ”

After saying that, Andrew sighed again. Picked up the cigarette case and sat down opposite Zhongshi, took out a cigarette from it, and smoked it sullenly.

Zhong Shi smiled and didn't say anything. He is naturally well aware of these people's concerns, and when it comes to money, they will naturally be more cautious and cautious, although Andrew is famous, but the market does not operate according to his comments in a few words.

After looking down and thinking about it, Zhongshi knocked on the table. said: "Let the wind go to the outside." Let's just say that the won will depreciate in the near future and fall below the psychological mark of 970. If there are still people who have doubts about this, then they will lose this opportunity to short the Korean won, you just let them get out! ”

“970？”

Andrew tilted his head and thought for a moment. Recently, the South Korean won exchange rate has fluctuated around 960. He didn't know exactly how much. But since Zhong Shi said so, it means that he already has a plan, so he nodded immediately. He took a puff of his cigarette, pressed the rest into the ashbox, nodded his head, and walked out of the ash.

……

On 6 November, at the beginning of the Asian trading session, there was an unusual move in the Hong Kong dollar market.

Large U.S. companies in Hong Kong and certain banks sold their three-month Hong Kong dollar forward rates, which led to a continuous decline in the overnight lending rates of Hong Kong dollar banks. However, the interest rate for more than one month has risen sharply, from 0.95% to 1.1% (monthly interest rate), and the banking community is still skeptical about international speculators speculating on the Hong Kong dollar again.

In the London foreign exchange market the night before, the three-month forward contracts of the Hong Kong exchange rate were frequently traded and the number of lots was large, because Hong Kong dollar banks need to consider the delivery of these forward contracts, so they hoarded some cash to meet unexpected needs, which is the reason why the long-term call rate is rising.

In New York, there are not too many similar forward contracts, which suggests that the consortium that sold the Hong Kong dollar this time is very likely to come from Europe.

Although the Hong Kong dollar has successfully weathered the previous crisis, the sudden emergence of selling orders in the market amounting to hundreds of millions of dollars still makes the market sweat. Although the Hang Seng Index opened higher on this day, due to the impact of many factors such as higher long-term call rates, higher mortgage interest rates and falling housing prices, it began to fall after the opening, closing at 10412 points, down 269 points, or 2.52%.

Although the announcement of the imminent resignation of the Thai prime minister brought a lot of positive news to the market, the market's attention soon focused on what happened after Chawalit, that is, the successor of the prime minister. Due to the large number of candidates and the market's concerns about the health of the King of Thailand, the Thai baht fell slightly during the Asian session.

Other markets such as the rupiah and the Philippine peso saw a slight increase in trading on the day due to the continued rise in the rupiah, but not by much margin. After all, it has been a while since the IMF announced the bailout of Indonesia, which is enough for the market to digest the relevant news.

All these changes in Southeast Asian currencies are only minor issues, and the market is more focused on the South Korean won.

Compared with the strengthening of Southeast Asian currencies, the South Korean won has continued to decline recently, and the market sell-off has not stopped even after the IMF announced bailouts to Indonesia and other countries.

At the start of the Asian session on this day, the won fell to 969.80 won to $1, a staggering drop from the previous day's close of trading at 968.50. There was a rebound in the intraday, but at noon, there was a sudden large-scale sale of won in the market, reaching an astonishing 970 billion won, breaking through the psychological barrier of 970 points almost instantly.

In the face of such a massive sell-off, the Bank of Korea had no choice but to intervene. These won are about $1 billion at today's exchange rate, and in the Seoul stock market, sometimes even less than half of that amount is traded in a day.

Similarly, in the face of such a large amount of selling, the Bank of Korea also acted decisively. As S&P and other rating agencies downgrade the credit ratings of Korean companies, it is difficult for the Korean banking industry to raise funds overseas, and the demand for US dollars in the Korean banking sector has increased significantly, which can only be carried out through operations in the foreign exchange market, so if the won continues to fall, the cost of financing the dollar will be even greater.

Under the double purchase of the Bank of Korea and the Korean banking industry, the exchange rate of the won did not fall sharply due to the large Korean won sell-off in the market, and finally the sell-off amount was fully absorbed. The South Korean won froze at 974.95, down 1.3 percent, hitting a new low in recent times.

……

Park Hee-rae is angry, and he has enough reason to be angry!

In his opinion, the $1 billion sell-off in the market is definitely a good thing done by a South Korean consortium. For this kind of behavior of demolishing the back office of the central bank, Park Hee-lai is furious!

Due to the recent interest rate cut in China, and China is South Korea's first trading country, the won swept away the previous decline in the market after hearing the relevant news, which is really exciting for two days. But it didn't take long for the won to turn around and fall again. The decline is even worse than the previous performance of the market.

As the governor of the central bank. According to the information he received, after the won was stimulated by the interest rate cut in China, some consortia in South Korea immediately exchanged the won on hand into dollars. Then there was a continuous sell-off in the market for the next two days. Earn the difference in exchange rates.

And for international travel funds, which are considered the first threat. His sources do not give a clear answer, although, according to his judgment, in Europe and the United States. There was no large-scale selling of the won or expected.

According to Park Hee-lai's conservative estimates, they have swept away at least $300 million in exchange rate differentials from the market in the past two days. These are all funds from the foreign exchange market, and Park Hee-rae is not very distressed, but the problem is that due to their sell-off, the market has doubts about the short-term performance of the won, which leads to further accelerated decline.

Think about it, how can a currency that even domestic companies don't trust very much can be trusted by foreign investors?

As a result, rumors about the financial crisis in South Korea, the capital flight of South Korean companies, and the depreciation pressure of the won appeared in the market one after another.

"Hiba, you really shouldn't interfere in the market!" Anger is anger, and Park Hee-lai, who has calmed down, has no way to change the current situation, neither the Korean consortium nor the banking industry can influence him.

At this time, there was also a man beside him, in his thirties, with single eyelids and small eyes, high cheekbones, a collapsed nose, thick lips, and a bulging chin, typical of a Korean face. His name is Seo Youtian, the head of the foreign exchange department of the Bank of Korea, and a close confidant of hardcore Park Hee-lai.

Seeing Park Xilai with a depressed face, Xu Youtian shook his head imperceptibly, obviously disapproving of this boss's mess. After pondering for a moment, Xu Youtian carefully reminded: "Senior Park, now is not the time to investigate, today's unusual trading market is still waiting for us to give an answer!" If this behavior cannot be explained as soon as possible, I believe that more sellers will run out later. ”

"Yes!"

Park Xilai, who woke up like a dream, slapped the table and said loudly: "Xiba, why didn't I think of it? However, it cannot be said that the South Korean consortium sold the won, and a reasonable explanation for the loss of the 970 price level must be made to dispel the market's doubts. ”

Since the won is subject to a daily quota system, the reference is not a fixed price, but the average price of the previous day, and to some extent, the won is a limited floating exchange rate system.

But even so, for the South Korean side, it is still impossible to completely leave it alone, and there will inevitably be a psychological price, that is, the exchange rate of the Korean won against the dollar will not break through much. Although this price level may not be public, there should be some consensus in the market.

Just like the 7.5 of the Hong Kong dollar, the 970 of the Korean won is indeed an important psychological threshold. When the won broke through 970, the market was shocked, and then there were significantly more sell-offs, which is a sign of lack of confidence. Park Xilai naturally knows this, but now he is trying to find an excuse to cover up this "important psychological threshold".

"Let's just say that we don't hold a certain price for the national currency, but watch the trend of the dollar and the yen, and adjust our market accordingly." After pondering for a moment, Xu Youtian's eyes lit up and he came up with such a statement.

Park Hee-rae chewed on the words "the trend of the dollar and the yen" repeatedly, and gradually his eyes began to shine that the current financial crisis in South Korea's domestic enterprises was caused by the financial crisis of certain Japanese conglomerates.

"In addition, we can also say that the current argument that the pressure on the South Korean won to depreciate due to the weak yen is overblown by the market, because only a very small number of domestic companies in South Korea are involved in Japanese capital, and the Korean currency is only affected by some speculators at this stage, and it is believed that it will soon return to normal levels." Seeing that Park Hee-lai adopted his suggestion, Xu Youtian added another paragraph while the iron was hot.

"Good!" Park Hee-lai slapped his thigh, "That's it, hurry up and prepare!" ”

……

Shortly after the close of the Asian session on November 6, an unnamed Bank of Korea official expressed these views to the outside world, while hinting that the South Korean government is recently seeking help from the International Monetary Fund, two pieces of news that contributed to the rally of the won in the European and American trading sessions. It's just that for trading in European and American hours, the Korean won is obviously not the main trading variety, and the volume and amount are pitifully small, which cannot have much incentive effect on trading during Asian hours.

Besides, whether the market believes the Bank of Korea's remarks or not is another matter! (To be continued......)

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