Although Zhong Shi was inconvenient to short the Hong Kong dollar for some reasons, he also boasted about Haikou in front of Ma Jiarui, so naturally he was not able to break his promise, so the funds of the entire Tianyu Fund were invested in other markets.

However, Zhong Shi soon realized that the impact of international travel capital on Hong Kong's capital market was basically unavoidable, and it could not be stopped by a single Tianyu fund. For Zhong Shi, what he can do is extremely limited, and even if he runs in front of Ren Yigang at this time and details a series of hedge fund strategies from beginning to end, he may not be able to impress the chief executive of the HKMA, who has always been known for his stubbornness.

Besides, on the mainland of China, although Zhuge Guan praised him, he would not consider handing over the funds to him to take care of at all, because he was not a person in the system. Even if Zhuge Pavilion can withstand the pressure from all sides and hand over the funds to Zhong Shi, Zhong Shi will not hesitate to refuse, he does not want to stand on the opposite side of the entire Chinese-funded enterprises in Hong Kong.

Since there is no way to rescue, it is definitely not Zhongshi's style to watch so much market value evaporate out of thin air and do nothing. Therefore, Zhong Shi had an idea and thought of a compromise solution, that is, to invest in the Hong Kong stock futures index market in the name of Skyline Financial Company.

Although there is also an options market, the underlying amount and turnover of the entire options market must not be compared with the futures market, so Zhong Shi categorically rejected it without thinking about it.

Hang Seng Index Futures, launched in May 1986, became an important hedging tool for the Hong Kong stock market. Later, the trading volume of the Hang Seng Index became more and more large, and gradually hedging transactions ceased to be mainstream. Speculative trading accounts for half of the total trading volume.

There are four types of futures contract months, namely the current month, the next month, and the two quarter months. That is, this is October, so the contracts that appear in the market are October '97, November, December and March '98. Naturally, the volume of the current month contract is the largest, followed by the next month, and the two furthest quarter months have the smallest volume.

It has to be said that the margin system of the Hang Seng Index futures market in Hong Kong is slightly different, and its initial margin per contract is a fixed number, which is called margin in the vernacular, and the corresponding adjustment of the margin is done through the exchange. Some exchanges calculate the amount of margin for the next day based on the settlement price of the day.

This margin system suffered a big loss in the stock market crash of '87. At that time, due to the collapse of the stock market. A bullish futures contract with a margin of $15,000 per lot can only support a decline of 300 points at most, and when this number is passed, not only the contract will come to naught, but even the holder will owe a big ass of debt. At this time, if you want to settle. That's the problem. Tens of thousands of contracts could be in default. The reputation of the Hong Kong Futures Exchange will be immediately discredited.

At that time, the British government in Hong Kong did not hesitate to close the exchange for four days for the settlement of the Hang Seng Index, and finally under the mediation of all parties, a 50% investment by the Hong Kong government was established. Major banks and brokers contributed 50% of the plan to raise a HK$2 billion standby loan to the Hong Kong Futures Guarantee Corporation, which was later increased to HK$4 billion, before barely disposing of open interest worth HK$1.8 billion at the time.

Subsequently, the futures exchange carried out a series of improvement measures to ensure that there would be no large-scale default. Today, the number of futures and options transactions on the Hong Kong Futures Exchange has jumped to the sixth largest in the world, making it a fairly large trading market.

It took Zhong Shi a full month to establish the position he wanted, and although he did not care about the average price of the position, the brokerage did their duty faithfully, raising the average price of Zhong Shi's short position to about 14,200 points.

After the month change, the 8,500 contracts immediately showed a loss, because the Hong Kong stock market began to rise after last month's downturn, but the loss was not serious, and Zhong Shi also had an additional reserve of 300 million Hong Kong dollars in the broker's account, so the economic bank did not reduce its position.

In the past few days, the Hang Seng Index has plummeted, and Zhongshi's position has also turned into a profit. As of October 17, the profit of each contract in his hand was 600 points, that is, 30,000 Hong Kong dollars, and if multiplied by the number, the profit of the entire account reached 350 million Hong Kong dollars, and the yield reached 100%.

In the past few days, the brokerage has been calling, suggesting that Zhongshi settle or move some funds to November for hedging. Zhong Shi was so annoyed that after several harassments, he decisively gave the brokerage an ultimatum order that if there was a similar situation, he would change the brokerage.

As a result, the brokerage side suddenly stopped, and Zhong Shi also fell quiet, but he still paid close attention to the Hang Seng market, knocking a few words on the brokerage house from time to time.

The Hong Kong Futures Exchange stipulates that if you hold more than 500 open positions (including futures and options, and contracts of various months), you must report the holder to the futures exchange. Bell Stone reported on Skyline Finance, and he acted as an agent. Naturally, the futures exchange will not disclose the specific company name, nor will the brokerage house, but will list these positions as a single speculative line, and publish it regularly to remind the market of risks.

After Zhong Shi hung up the phone, he thought quietly for a long time, and felt that there was nothing missing, so he left the office.

……

At this time, at the headquarters of Tiger Fund in Manhattan, USA, a discussion about the Hong Kong market is in full swing, and the topic of discussion is naturally how to short the Hong Kong market.

This time, the short Hong Kong stock market was led by the Tiger Fund, because Soros of the Quantum Fund had something to say first, so even if the Quantum Fund coveted the Hong Kong market, it was not good to go against his boss's public speech at this time. Although the capital market does not pay attention to these things at all, Soros is not a mouthful, and he confirms that there is no opportunity for Asian currency markets during this time period, and even tends to be stable. It's just that the development of things gradually deviated from his expectations, and finally after January 98, he couldn't help but intervene in the Hong Kong capital market.

"The problem right now is that we don't have enough leverage, even though the timing is very good for us." Robert. "The Hong Kong market index almost includes more than 90% of the stocks, but the weights have a very strong influence on the index. Among them, the market capitalization of financial, industrial and commercial stocks ranks among the top two, and the other is real estate and public utilities. ”

"Because the Hong Kong stock market has fallen slightly in the previous period, the overall volatility is not large, basically maintained at about 14,000 to 15,000, in this case, we can borrow not too many weighted stocks, and we cannot buy these stocks that will obviously fall, so I am afraid that in the future, the strength to suppress the index will not be enough."

If you want to suppress the index, you must sell the stocks of heavy stocks, because the Hong Kong market is booming in the early stage, and the prices of these stocks are naturally high, hedge funds will naturally not buy these stocks, they will only borrow stocks through brokers to sell in the market, but the problem is that the stocks in the hands of these brokers are not much, which naturally brings them a lot of difficulty in shorting.

Until now, like Robert. People like Setron also think that the depreciation of the new Taiwan dollar and Black Monday are coincidences, and in fact, only Julian Robertson knows the truth of the matter.

"That's a big problem!"

Julian Robertson remained silent and casually chimed in. He was also very annoyed in his heart, regarding the plan to attack Hong Kong this time, most of the hedge funds have prepared funds to impact the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate, and only a few top hedge funds know what is going on.

In other words, even within the tour capital, it is believed that the main direction of attack is the Hong Kong dollar.

Tiger Fund and several other funds used the channels of Goodman, Stanley and other companies to collect information and release rumors, and borrowed stocks from most brokerages that can provide securities lending and borrowing functions, and naturally most of them are stocks with heavy stocks. But the time given to them was so short that even with all their might, they have not borrowed too many shares, and so far, they have only borrowed about 8 billion Hong Kong dollars worth of shares.

If there is not enough heavyweight stocks to sell, it will not be able to drive the herd effect, the stock market will not plummet, the short position of the futures index will not make money, and the loss of the position of selling Hong Kong dollars will be impossible to recover, which is a series of chain reactions.

However, Julian Robertson is not really in a hurry, because he already has a back move, which is not suitable for use at the moment, and he still needs to wait for an opportunity.

"In addition to the lack of shorting quota for heavyweight stocks, are there any other downsides?" Julian Robertson already had a plan and waited for Robert. After Setron and the others finished speaking, they asked lightly.

Billy. Kim stood up and said, "In addition, I have also noticed that in the recent Hong Kong stock market, it seems that there is a stream of money against us, and when we sell the weighted stocks, they will buy." The problem is not here, but this situation occurs in many heavyweight stocks, which is likely to be the behavior of the market, and I analyze that this stock should be the bullish side to take the opportunity to absorb chips. ”

"Really?"

Julian Robertson's eyes narrowed, and he replied seemingly nonchalantly, and then asked, "How much is the transaction amount?" ”

"About $50 million, that's a lot of money. However, after this period of decline, a small number of investors began to sell their heavyweight stocks, which reduced the pressure on us to sell a lot, and I believe that most of their funds were invested in this area. "Billy. The light in Jin's eyes flashed, and he said with a little excitement.

At present, the herd effect has shown some of its power, and the rest is the reaction of the market. (To be continued......)

PS: Thanks to the book friend snail. Sir, Shi Huangtian voted for a monthly ticket!